The Bargain Derby – Run for The Roses
Tweleve bargain bred three yr olds gather in Tennessee in an attempt to win the coveted Bargain Roses and some of the 250k prize that goes along with them. Last year’s winner Shoeless Greek trained by 1917sox won the Derby by a mere nose over rival Slewpent trained by bargain leader knightmare. Shoeless Greek was a nice turf runner prior to last years Derby and made good on his first attempt on the main track. He went on to win the 100 Guineas in his next start but failed to win the coveted triple crown finishing a disappointing 10th in The Bronx.
1. CTR’s Reality – Son of Virtual G (Maria’s Mon) has failed to break his maiden in 4 lifetime attempts and his uninspiring 9th beaten by 18 ½ lengths last out in the 8.5f Bargain restricted maiden race gives little confidence he can factor today.
2. Key Party – Purim colt seeks The Shoeless Greek route to the Bargain Derby as this is his first attempt on dirt in 6 lifetime races. He is 6-2-1-1 in his career and has show big time talent finishing 2nd in the El Joven in his 2nd lifetime start. Won by 2 lengths posting an 88 at 10 furlongs last race so we know he can get the distance and oddsmakers like that too instilling him as the 3-1 co-favorite today.
3. CT’s Rocket – Lifeline’s three year old colt by Governor Brown (Kingmambo) has two lifetime wins to his credit both at the claiming levels. He made a big late move to finish 2nd in The Ozark last out punching his ticket to the Derby. That effort shows he is a real live chance in this race and he fits the profile of a horse that could wear the Roses today.
4. Nzed Halo – Son of Gold Halo (Sunday Silence) won his debut in the BBRS Maiden Claimer back in September and followed that up with a solid 3rd in the Giner Ale Bargain Stakes at 8 furlongs. Bounce in The Ozark last out running a 76 speed figure after hitting a career high 85 speed figure two back. The 76 speed was good enough for 3rd however so he is a horse that you have to consider when making deep exotic wagers.
5. Song of the Deaf – Plano’s son of Greatness (Mr Prospector) took 5 races to break his maiden but he did enough in his breakthrough win last out to convince his connections to send him to Ol Rocky Top today. He will need to further improve off of his lifetime best last out but his open length win shows that may be within the realm of possibilities. Look for him to do his best running late as others are falling back.
6. Nzed Colombia – Returns to the Bargain Bred series where he successfully competed in the first two races of his life finishing 3rd and 1st in restricted racing. Has struggled since then after a disastrous open stakes sprint try but a return to bargain company could be just what this colt needs to achieve a further breakthrough. Tough to like off of recent form but must be respected.
7. Minute Flat – 35-1 shot is still a maiden after just two lifetime races. 20 point speed regression after a solid debut placing is very troublesome and it appears to be too much too soon for this greenhorn colt.
8. Revisionist – Pennsylvania bred son of Request for Parole is still a maiden after 5 lifetime races but has hit the board in two of those attempts. Ran an even 3rd last out in a bargain restricted race but hard to see him improving enough to grab a share today.
9. Textbook Case – Son of Freud is the 3-1 co favorite today largely off of his smashing 3 length win in The Ozark last out. He is clearly the early speed of this race but it is a bit of a question mark if he will be able to carry that speed over today’s longer distance. Seems a legitimate favorite despite that concern and will be the one to run down in the late going today.
10. Mimbo Hill – Colt won his debut on dirt but has really found his stride on the grass after being claimed by knightmare for 13,500 back in October of 2009. Has won two starter allowances on the grass, posting a massive 92 last out when he won by 2 ¼ lengths. Will be running late and is a major contender although his form suggests he just may be better on the grass.
11. Slightly Mad – Plano’s son of Greinton failed to make it 2 for 2 on dirt last out when he ran a flat 6th in The Ozark posting a 74 speed figure in the process. His prospects today do not appear a lot better but he could hit the board if he can show the same big late run he executed in his maiden winning effort.
12. CTR’s Rainbow- Today’s 82-1 longshot is the Bargain Giacomo of today’s race and will need for the race to break down in front of him to make any noise today. I suspect his next race will be on the grass if he doesn’t make improvement today.
Prediction:
Textbook Case will lead this race a long way and will likely be able to have his own way on the front end which is always dangerous. For that reason I am backing him as the winner despite some question marks about his ability to handle the distance. Mimbo Hill looks dangerous off of his recent turf form and should run well enough to pick up 2nd and CT’s Rocket/Key Party should round out the superfecta.
Good luck to all of the connections in today’s race and as always thanks to knightmare and all of the regulars in the Bargain Series.