Dee Stakes favors the Wolfman
Surrey’s second running of the Dee Stakes already has a significant history to live up to. the inaugural running was won by none other than Title Defense, 2009’s Eclipse-winning 3yo turf colt. A repeat campaign by the 2010 winner would place this 10f G3 event firmly on the sim’s championship map.
Narrowly favored in the Dee is Cmd3‘s prize turf marathoner Wolfman Has Nards. The 2-1 colt is by Ghostzapper out of a Sadler’s Wells mare. He ran a sowly closing sixith in the G1 Sydney Derby last out, likely due to distance limits. In comparison, two back he handily won a stakes at 9.5f with a solid 101sp. The 10f distance appears to suit Wolfman to a tee. He will be very difficult to beat here.
Second fave is also a descendant of Ghostzapper, though for Wall Street Ghost the old man is in the second generation back. A son of After Market, the Ghost is multiply graded placed and looking for his first win since a dirt mile allowance back in September. Stormboot2 has been placing this horse in some tough spots, running in the G1 Japanese 2000 Guineas last out and a G1 Equinics event two back. Dropping back to a minor grade with a smaller field and getting a bit more distance should suit Ghost well. 5/2 odds.
Swhipser’s Scales is third fave at 4/1. The Pivotal colt has run out of the money just once in his career, and that was in a sprinting G3 fresh off a debut win. Scales’ highest speed figure (98) was earned running 9.5, and the colt is pretty quick at 10f as well. He’s fast, though a tad slower than the first two runners. Good bet to at least hit the board.
One of two at 6/1 is Socialism. Trained by Lenny29, the Bernardini colt returns to the grass after a failed attempt to make the Bluegrass Derby field. Socialism is undeniably faster on dirt, but after running a 99sp at 9.5 on dirt two back trying a longer turf race is definitely worth a try.
Jakemate, also 6/1, won his first three starts lifetime by open lengths, but in three starts since has managed just a second in a listed mile stake. That second did earn a 98sp so at least we know he’s a competent runner. The 22-length loss in the G1 Japanese 2000 Guineas doesn’t lend at ton of confidence to Jakemate’s chances here. Sansebas has to hope his Invincible Spirt colt will come back from that loss in much better form.
Pregunta Grande, trained by Desimster2, starts at 7/1. The Red Ransom colt carries an enviable 50% win rate in six starts. All three came routing, with the longest at 9.5f. That race was also Grande’s best speed figure-wise; it earned a 98 for the daylight victory. Grande has tried two graded stakes. The first was a mile and saw the colt finish fourth. The last was 6 weeks ago and saw Grande run 11th at 10f in G3. If he’s back in shape, he could be dangerous.
The final entrant is Stormy Trebre. Itsalock’s 13/1 runner just finished a hard-closing second in a G3 at 10f. Her odds are depressed due to a miserable loss following an apparent injury in the Equinics back in February. Although the Stormy Atlantic filly has yet to win on grass, her first victory can’t be far off given solid performances when she is healthy. She may need more than 10 panels to really shine however.
Wolfman Has Nards looks the best to me, but the filly Stormy Trebre if fully healthy could get up to spoil if Wall Street Ghost falters.