Ten In Line For The 1000 Guineas

INTOXICATING(ENG)                       11/1               Divisional Rank: 93

3 year old filly

NEW APPROACH (IRE) x A.P. INDY x NORTHERN DANCER

Jockey: T Cooper ( 206 – 19 – 29 – 27 – 9% )

Record: (12: 3-4-1) $118,369             Turf: (11: 3-4-1) $118,369

8 Furlongs: (3: 1-1-1)

Best Speed Figure: 97                                    Best 8 Furlong Speed Figure: 97

This front running English bred is the second longest shot on the morning line and will have to take a major step forward if she is to upset this field on Saturday. Four weeks ago she made her Stakes debut in the one mile Grausturm Challenge in Berkshire, and she led for a long way before tiring to finish second. That was the best effort of her twelve race career and she will need another career best if she hopes to win or even hit the board in here. She will be forwardly place but an easy lead will be highly unlikely.

ETERNITY IN HELL(KY)                   7/1                  Divisional Rank: 8

3 year old filly

EL PRADO(IRE) x A.P. INDY x FORTY NINER

Jockey: A Williams ( 33 – 6 – 2 – 4 – 18% )

Record: (12: 4-3-1) $476,750             Turf: (9: 4-1-1) $465,050

8 Furlongs: (8: 3-1-1)

Best Speed Figure: 99                                    Best 8 Furlong Speed Figure: 99

This grey daughter of El Prado has made her last eight starts at the one mile distance, with mixed results. She won three of her last four starts as a two year old, with major wins in The Grade 3 Natalie and The Grade 1 DPCD VIII Dancing Blade Handicap. In between those two scores was a so-so sixth in The Breeders Bowl Juvenile Fillies Turf. After such a solid first season the filly’s connections were looking to have one of the star female grass performers in 2010. However she is winless in four starts, with two off the board finishes against Grade 1 company. So far she has not really improved as a three year old and it seems that her contemporaries have gone past her. We will know a lot more after Saturday’s race.  

ATSUKO(JPN)                       6/1                  Divisional Rank: 55

3 year old filly

DAIWA MAJOR (JPN) x PALACE MUSIC x STORM CAT

Jockey: Ri Williams ( 42 – 6 – 3 – 1 – 14% )

Record: (8: 5-1-1) $161,300               Turf: (8: 5-1-1) $161,300

8 Furlongs: (5: 3-1-0)

Best Speed Figure: 103                                  Best 8 Furlong Speed Figure: 103

This Japanese speed ball has only been out of the money once in eight starts, but worryingly for her connections that was in her lone try in the Graded Stakes ranks. “She is a much better filly now than she was then”, jockey Williams told the media at this week’s post position draw. “That race was just her third start and she ran a heck of a race to finish fifth of fourteen in a Grade 1 against much more experienced fillies”. Since then she has won three of five and she prepped for this race by finishing a game second in The Appalooza Stakes five weeks ago. In that one mile event she was beaten by Marisa who she will meet again this weekend. “She’s always been on the lead”, was Williams’ response when asked about his tactics for Saturday.

ACT GREEN(IRE)                 9/1                  Divisional Rank: 129

3 year old filly

DYLAN THOMAS (IRE) x KINGMAMBO x SADLER’S WELLS

Jockey: L Hichens ( 54 – 7 – 6 – 8 – 13% )

Record: (9: 4-2-2) $1,519,680                        Turf: (9: 4-2-2) $1,519,680    

8 Furlongs: (2: 0-0-2)

Best Speed Figure: 96                                                    Best 8 Furlong Speed Figure: 96

Though she is yet to win a race in three starts this year, this Irish bred filly has really improved. After beginning her career with seven consecutive sprint races this daughter of Dylan Thomas has taken a step forward her last two starts, which have been her first attempts over a route of ground. Both of those one mile events have been career best efforts even though she failed to win either event. Last time out she ran evenly all the way to be third in The Grade 3 Irish 1000 Guineas Trial in her third start of the year. Her prior 2010 outings were both against Stakes competition where she finished second and third. This is a consistent and improving filly who figures to get better as the distances get longer, and is not without a shot this weekend.

SCREAMO(KY)                     5/1                  Divisional Rank: 13

3 year old filly

GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x DANZIG x LYPHARD

Jockey: L Anderson ( 121 – 14 – 18 – 16 – 12% )

Record: (10: 5-1-1) $1,191,580                      Turf: (10: 5-1-1) $1,191,580

8 Furlongs (3: 0-0-1)

Best Speed Figure: 101                                                  Best 8 Furlong Speed Figure: 101

The tepid morning line favourite has started only twice this year, winning The $1,000,000 Grade 1 Think Globally restricted stakes over six furlongs, then finishing a closing third in The Grade 1 Japanese 1000 Guineas behind Whipped and Boiscool, who she will meet again this Saturday. Many punters were surprised this filly was made the favourite since she has never won going a distance of ground, and the two fillies who defeated her last time out are both in this race. Her 101 speed rating for her last start was not only a career best, but her first triple digit number, and anything less than a duplicate of that effort will not nearly be enough to win this race. Needs a fast pace to set up her come from the clouds rally.

DUCHESS OF SKUNK(IRE)             6/1                  Divisional Rank: 35

3 year old filly

DUKE OF MARMALADE (IRE) x DYNAFORMER x NIJINSKY II

Jockey: A Tuscha ( 93 – 17 – 13 – 22 – 18% )   

Record: (10: 4-2-2) $192,230             Turf: (10: 4-2-2) $192,230

8 Furlongs: (4: 1-1-1)

Best Speed Figure: 103                                  Best 8 Furlong Speed Figure: 103

This Irish filly has run three races this year, all at one mile, with each performance better than the last. In her first 2010 outing she was third in The Grade 3 Ice Cream Cold Stakes, next out she was second in The Flat World Memorial and last time out she won The Grade 3 Irish 1000 Guineas Trial. Her numbers for those races were 93, 98, 103 respectively and another step forward will make her very tough to beat. Jockey Adrian Tuscha picks up the mount and has been very confident all week. “I remember when this filly broke her maiden at this track last year. I didn’t ride her that day but I was very impressed with her run. I told my agent I’d like to ride the filly in this race, and when Bradley, who had ridden her in that maiden race opted to ride Boiscool, I was overjoyed to get the mount”.

WHIPPED(NZ)                       6/1                  Divisional Rank: 5

3 year old filly

ZABEEL(NZ) x WAR CHANT x FORTY NINER

Jockey: A Craig ( 299 – 68 – 65 – 38 – 23% )

Record: (8: 6-0-1) $1,938,160                        Turf: (7: 5-0-1) $1,910,440

8 Furlongs: (4: 4-0-0)

Best Speed Figure: 108                                  Best 8 Furlong Speed Figure: 108

There was plenty of noise on the backstretch earlier this week when the morning line odds were released and this filly was not made the favourite. There were rumblings from the large New Zealand contingent that made the trip to Newmarket, about their filly being disrespected despite being the highest ranked filly in the field and owner of the fastest speed rating. In their defence this filly has done nothing wrong so far in 2010. She brought a two race win streak into the new year and began her campaign with a shocking 24/1 upset win in The Grade 1 Citizen Mile. Her 108 figure for that performance is the best rating in here and among the best for three year old grass fillies this year. Last time out she proved that win was no fluke when she beat another stellar field in taking The Grade 1 Japanese 1000 Guineas. On Saturday she will be trying to make it a hat trick of Grade 1 one mile grass events, and her fifth straight win. It will be quite a celebration if she wins.

MARISA(KY)                          6/1                  Divisional Rank: 111

3 year old filly

FORESTRY x SADLER’S WELLS x FORTY NINER

Jockey: D Firmage ( 37 – 0 – 1 – 3 – 0% )

Record: (5: 3-1-1) $137,470               Turf: (5: 3-1-1) $137,470

8 Furlongs: (1: 1-0-0)

Best Speed Figure: 105                                  Best 8 Furlong Speed Figure: 105

The new kid on the block, this filly has made only five trips to the starting gate, but has recorded some eye-catching performances. She has won three of five, never been out of the money, and recorded triple digit numbers her last two; but has never been in against Graded Stakes company. However her speed figures ensured she was given plenty of respect by the oddsmaker and she should not be overlooked despite a lack of experience. Five weeks ago she made her first start beyond a sprint distance in the one mile Appalooza Stakes and displayed what has become her patented late sweep to win going away at the wire. Her 105 speed figure for that performance makes her dangerous in here if she can hold her form or even improve.

EDEN VALLEY(IRE)                          13/1               Divisional Rank: 42

3 year old filly

DYLAN THOMAS (IRE) x GONE WEST x NORTHERN DANCER

Jockey: A Holohan ( 41 – 7 – 2 – 6 – 17% )

Record: (10: 4-1-2) $425,872             Turf: (10: 4-1-2) $425,872

8 Furlongs: (3: 1-0-0)

Best Speed Figure: 94                                    Best 8 Furlong Speed Figure: 93

The longest shot on the board who has yet to finish in the money after two starts this year. In The $1,000,000 Grade 1 Think Globally and The Grade 1 Japanese 1000 Guineas she was fourth and eighth respectively in races won by Screamo and Whipped who she will face again on Saturday. A major improvement is needed if she is to turn the table on both those fillies and her connections are hopeful she can turn things around. She will be close early on and whether she elects to stalk or challenge for the lead will be up to jockey Holohan.

BOISCOOL(KY)                     6/1                  Divisional Rank: 7

3 year old filly

WAR CHANT x FORTY NINER x SEATTLE SLEW

Jockey: J Bradley ( 276 – 58 – 41 – 31 – 21% )

Record: (10: 5-3-0) $1,519,680                      Turf: (10: 5-3-0) $1,519,680

8 Furlongs: (4: 0-2-0)

Best Speed Figure: 102                                                  Best 8 Furlong Speed Figure: 102

A two time Grade 1 winner last year and a heartbreaking head loser in The Breeders Bowl Juvenile Fillies Turf, this filly really came to life last time out after two consecutive subpar efforts. After an abysmal twelfth placed effort in The Grade 1 Citizen Mile to begin the year, she got her act together to finish a strong second in The Grade 1 Japanese 1000 Guineas. In both those races she found herself behind the winner Whipped who she will face again in here. Her connections believe she is in peak shape for this race and are looking for their filly to turn the tables on that rival. She has eight other fillies to worry about as well. Will be part of what is expected to be a hot early pace.

Picks

1.)    WHIPPED(NZ)  6/1

2.)    MARISA(KY)   6/1    

3.)  ATSUKO(JPN)  6/1

Good luck to all!