2010 Bluegrass Derby
The 2010 Bluegrass Derby is among the most competitive in recent memory. Two fillies, victors in Derby Lock Preps, join 18 colts in this 11th running of the sim’s premier event for 3yo dirt horses. Hot And Spicy set the record last year with a brilliant 2:01 time for the mile and a quarter Grade I.
The Black Type Bugler’s coverage of this race was prepared by a panel of four of our senior writers. Whirlwind has played since week 292 and has been a frequent contributor to the BTB. With Yochem, he produced the inaugural Experimental Free Handicap. An original member of the super stables, he understands getting horses to the Triple Jewel races, winning a Derby, Middle Jewel and New Yorker and putting multiple horses in the Derby gate for 5 consecutive years. AFC, as part of Super and on his own, has also sent several to the starting gate in the sim’s premier races and walked away with many winner’s trophies over the years. Pazjazz is a regular contributor to the Bugler. He campaigns standout older horses Triple A Prayer and Gracepointe Prayer among others. Gowans is relatively new to the game but has already made his mark with excellent work for the Bugler as well as contributions to his residencies.
For the first time in the game, the Experimental Free Handicap was published. Prepared by Whirlwind and Yochem, the Handicap is a fascinating glimpse at the likely successes of 3yos at a routing distance. Check it out in the Black Type Bugler. The panel makes reference to its findings in their discussion of the Derby field.
FLAME OF APOLLO
AFC: Consistent sort, off the board only once. Has finished in front of one of the major threats, Perfect Game Ted, both times they’ve met. Never runs a bad race. Corkscrew winners have won the Derby four times, far and away more than any other prep. Check. Four Florida Derby losers have won the Roses- all four had a winning start between the FL Derby and the Bluegrass Derby. Check. Six of the last nine Derby winners were within 10 pounds of the EFH Highweight. This guy WAS top weighted for 2009. Check. Connections? Check. Already have one Derby under their belts, and have won three of the colt Spring classic races since 2006 (that’s 3 of 12- not bad in these races). Progressing at age three? Check. Win at 9f or more? Check. He’s already gained an ‘A’ ranking after only ten career starts having won two Grade 1’s and being on the board in two others. Impressive. From an historical perspective, this guy fits almost every trend we can generate after 10 runnings of the Bluegrass Derby. Only thing that sticks out here is the lone off the board effort at 9.5 panels. Did he need a race, or will he falter at a mile and a quarter? HmmmmÖ. Won’t be surprised if he wins, would be less surprised if he loses. If he passes this test, we may have a horse with a legit shot at the Sim’s second Triple JewelÖbut this is his Waterloo.
Whirlwind: First of two super entries and appears to be set for a big outing. Consistency has been a stepping stone for this son of Kingmambo, his only off the board finish came in the Equinics off a 2 month layoff. He fits right into patterns after his big win
in the Corkscrew after finishing 3rd in Florida. Has the dosage, was high weight in the Experimental Free Handicap and comes from a barn that has been down this road several times.
Pazjazz: Now we’re talking. You guys have already mentioned how consistent he is and the nice breeding. And what would a Bluegrass be without a couple of Super entries? This guy could carry the FLAME for the Supers as he looks strong. Should be in the mix. Don’t look back when you hit the stretch because this guy could be gaining on you.
Gowans: Locked his spot up in Corkscrew last out off 21 days. Very consistent son of Kingmambo, only out of the money once in ten lifetime starts. He did close from nine back to hold off a late challenge to win by 1/2 of a length. Bred for the distance, but did flatten out three back in the Equinics, finishing 4th. Has only broken the 100 sped figure mark once, winning with a 105 last out. Will be in the back early, and I see him flying home, but not sure hewill win.
PERFECT GAME TED
AFC: Another consistent sort, off the board only twice. Figs are improving. Pleasantly Perfect should get him ten furlongs. No Sand Castle Derby winner has worn the Roses yet. You’ll know all you need to know after the first call- if he’s worse than fifth, forget it. If he’s fifth or better, he’s in with a shot. Doesn’t have the huge turn of foot, will need to grind them down. Tough job to stay close enough early to factor and hold off the late runners. He’s also had quite a few starts, more that anyone in the field except for last minute entrant Lucky’s Howie (14), Kitzbuhel (13) and Inauguration (12). He may have reached his top level already, and to win here, he’ll have to run right through that. More to dislike than like here.
Whirlwind: Bred to go the distance and comes to the Derby off big wins in the Sand Castle and Rebel Yell. Will try to carry his natural speed and will either set or press the pace and hope to fight off the closers in the lane. Has a conditioner who knows how to win big races. Fits with dosage and weighted 4 lbs off the high weight on the Experimental Handicap. Comes to the race well rested. Big chance here.
Pazjazz: This guy’s been nearly PERFECT lately. He will ride in CURLING’S wake and see if he can get out front and hold on. I disagree with you AFC, I think that there’s a lot more to like than to dislike with this one. It’s so hard in these big races to get out front and win but this guy’s pedigree has thrown some big winners before. He could have a chance here with the right trip.
Gowans: Not the blueblood of the field, but he runs like he is. He has the most money in earnings of the field, winning a two million dollar race last out. This colt is coming in off two straight wins, and six straight in the money finishes. He has only finished off the board twice. He won his last race, the G1 Sand Castle Derby Lock by 1 1/2 off 14 days. He took the lead at Call 3, and pulled away late. Will be sitting right off the pace, a great chance as the co 2nd choice.
CURLY Q
AFC: Leads the field with six wins already. Improving each time out. Loved the way he closed out the Cal Derby. Deep closer who seems able to avoid trouble with aplomb. Electric turn of foot, just what you want to see in a Derby horse. If he gets ten furlongs, he’s going to be right there. However, the back end of Mr. Greeley-Storm Cat raises some distance issues. Everyone has seen horses who run through a wall at nine furlongs, then get crushed by the 1/8th pole while trying 10 furlongs. Still, I like him. A lot. A must use in exotic tickets, with a generous helping on top.
Whirlwind: This son of Curlin has come alive, big time, since December and has been on quite a roll on the West Coast. He has a devastating closing kick and will be flying the last quarter mile. My only knocks are his dosage being a bit high and not ranked within ten pounds on the Experimental Handicap. He will get 10 panels easily, just not the first Saturday in May.
Pazjazz: Sometimes I have to wonder what that guy that does the Morning Lines for the Sim is putting in his kool aid. He has this CURLIN offspring ranked second for this race and he sure looks like the favorite in my book. He’s been shaking his little CURLY Q right on over to the Winner’s Circle for owner LGBost with four wins in his past five and one second. He knows how to win and will probably go even better at 10f but he might have a mighty big trophy back in the stable by then.
Gowans: One of the two Curlin’s in the field. Nine out of eleven in the exacta. Sire side says he should be able to get the distance, but the dam never won past 8.5 furlongs, and only one sibling that is a 2yo. A dead closer here, in all but his career debut, he has been either last or 2nd to last at 1st call. Last out he won the California Derby Lock. Coming from 9 Ω down at the 3rd call, he won by a length, out-finishing rivals. Look for this one to be coming late.
MARK OF DESTINY
AFC: Get his preferred fast track. His LTO off track effort was horrid. But that could be a blessing in disguise- he should rebound big on his preferred surface here. Still, no wins at 9f or moreÖ.that always leaves a bad taste in my mouth heading to the Derby. No horse has won the Derby without a win at 9 furlongs or more prior to the Big One. Bad taste? Sorry, I meant curdled milk mixed with raw chicken left out in the sun for six days sort of taste. Get my drift?
Whirlwind: I think we can throw out his last effort in the slop and look at his win in the All Saints, where he closed willingly and finished with a nice speed figure. He has the dosage and was weighted 6 pounds off the high weight on the Experimental Handicap, so the potential is there, but he has never won going longer than 8 ½ panels and that last 3/16’s is probably going to do him in.
Pazjazz: Yeah, you can bet the house that the Horned Frog Stables were praying for a dry track this week. I agree with you Whirlwind that he may not have the stamina for 9F but he sure did look strong in that ALL SAINTS win. One of only two Graded winners by Sire BENCHMARK in five years and nearly 2,000 runs. Rolling is having a great year with his mounts but I’m just not feeling that it in the Destiny for this one.
Gowans: This horse has never had more than a 5 week rest. Which leads me to ask the question, did the lack of rest catch up with him in his last, was it the sloppy track, or was it the distance? As the 9-2 favorite he was never in contention finishing 11th. But two back, in the All Saints Derby Lock he was impressive winning by two. He posted a 105 speed figure. His dam never won a race. Will probably be in mid pack early, and needs to rebound big off his last to win.
BEGONE OASIS
AFC: Came from nowhere to win a slooow Florida Derby and grab a spot in the gate. Otherwise, he’s eligible for NW3L. Has yet to toss a 100+ figure. He’s won ONE race in the past 12 months. ONE. Does he make it two in a row in the Derby? Not with my money he doesn’t. Outsider.
Whirlwind: Nice win in the Florida Derby but it was a slowly run race and this guy has yet to pop a triple digit speed figure. Still eligible for non winners of 2x or 3lifetime. Qualifies on dosage and weighting on Experimental Handicap. Comes to the Derby on 6 weeks rest but has also yet to win a race with longer than 4 weeks off.
Pazjazz: It’s funny but this isn’t even the top ranked three year old from this Sire. EMPIRE DREAMER is a turfer who is looking good. As you mentioned WhirlWind, this colt is still looking for that OASIS of his first triple digit SPF. The two time winner will be hard pressed to find that third win here. Prufrock Stables will be able to enjoy Derby week and keep those dreams of a Derby win alive right up to post time on Saturday.
Gowans: This colt has never broken the 100 speed figure mark. He’s by a turfy sire, in Oasis Dream, but has never run on the turf. His dam has produced another graded winner, that has never won past 7.5 furlongs. Last out he ran in Florida Derby Lock, as the 7th choice, he won by 1 1/2. The Florida Derby was run 1 4/5 seconds slower than the Arkansas Juvenile, though. He came from the back, and came as a team with two other rivals to win. Should be in the last five early, and needs a big effort.
KILLING GAME
AFC: Wow. First effort at nine panels was outstanding. Talk about finding your niche at the right timeÖ.Superlative effort, sat off a hot pace, held off the late runners. 111 in only his fifth start. Either you love him or you think that such a huge jump in figs sets him up for a bounce to Pluto. He’s got star written all over him, and should be a force throughout the year. His top has yet to be reached in all likelihood. That’s a scary thought. But I think the lack of experience kills him in this race. I think he bounces. Big. He’ll be caught up in the early mix, and it may well roast him. If he’s still around at the top of the lane, he may pull it off, but I think this is too much too soon. Will be one to be reckoned with come summertime, but not quite yet. No Derby winner has ever done so with this few races under his belt.
Whirlwind: Only 5 career races, but his last in Arkansas was run blazingly fast. Impeccably bred son of Giant’s Causeway is going to have his work cut out for him. He will try to set or press the pace and he is going to have quite a bit of company up front. Not a dual qualifier and I think it may be asking quite a bit from this colt at this stage of his career.
Pazjazz: It must have been quite a field in that one race at the Benelux Res that this guy lost because he’s been a KILLING machine in his other four races. That includes his amazing effort in the Arkansas Juvy Lock. The Royal Belgian Kempen Farm has to have high hopes for this one not only this week but down the line like you said AFC. I’m with you though, it’s a lot to ask to win the Derby in your sixth race. Could be a tough out though.
Gowans: Off an 8 week layoff, he ran the fastest time of any 9 furlong lock last time out in the Arkansas Juvenile Lock, going in 1:47:2. He took the lead at the 3rd call, and fought off a late challenge to win by 1/2 of a length. Has the pedigree to get the distance, being a Giant’s Causeway son. Never been off the board in five start, four being wins. Should be sitting right off the pace, could bounce, but I see move forward potential too.
THE BEGGAR KING
AFC: Ahh, the infamous turf to dirt angle. Worked last year for Hot and Spicy- but Hot and Spicy won a 9.5f turf allowance in his prep. This guy prepped at a mile. Still has never gone beyond 8.5f. Handled by one of the most astute players in the game, but I think if you pinned Given down by his throat and pressed him, even he would tell you that he’s reaching into the unknown here. Wouldn’t be a total surprise, just a fairly big one. But that’s what risk taking is all about. Things go right, you’re a genius. Go wrong, you’re a dunce. Does Given wear the valedictorian’s cap or the other one with the pointy top? We’ll see.
Whirlwind: A multiple Gd1 winner, who is a dual qualifier with dosage and weighting, but has yet to win going farther that a mile and a sixteenth. Prepped for the Derby in a turf allowance, after taking advantage of an off track in North Florida. He has earned his trip to Kentucky but my thoughts are that he may just be a superior miler.
Pazjazz: As the guys mentioned, it sure was an interesting training run up to the Derby with mud and grass included in the past two. I’m sure not going to knock owner Given’s training methods though, he’s had some great successes. If I had to bet whether this colt will be THE BEGGAR or the KING though, I have to say that this is a really nice colt but probably won’t be a Bluegrass Derby Winner.
Gowans: This colt attempted to take a Hot and Spicy route to the derby last out, running in a mile turf allowance. Even though he hasn’t won a lock, he has already won two graded races as 3yo. In his last race on turf, he was 2nd in a four horse field, beaten two lengths, but did post a 95 speed figure. Two back in the G3 Buccaneer Derby over a good track, he blew by rivals late to win by 2 º with a 105 speed. Will be in the back early, but should come running late.
INAUGURATION
AFC: Has already outrun his pedigree. LTO was huge in the AK Derby, second with a 110, and that earned him a spot here. He wasn’t going if he flopped again over a mile. But he didn’t, so here he isÖ.no Derby winner has had a DI over 4.00. This guy’s is over 6.00. Check. And mate. No thanks. And he’s the favorite at post time? Wow. I think the master computer that runs the game has short circuited. Call 911!
Whirlwind: The 2nd of the super entries has yet to win this year after a great juvenile season. Dosage is high but was only 2lbs off the high weight on the Experimental Handicap. They were probably ready to write him off for the Derby until his very fast diminishing ¾ length second in the Arkansas Juvenile last time out. He has already outrun his pedigree but if he moves forward from his last race, he could surprise at huge odds.
Pazjazz: This Morning Line favorite looked like his INAUGURAL season as a two year old was going to be his legacy and then he threw a sizzling 110 SPF in the Arkansas, just missing the big win for the Supers. They have a way of bringing horses from nowhere to win big races but I’m afraid that was a one time thing for this big guy. He’s proven before that he can get on a roll though and I hate to count him out.
Gowans: The favorite here, and another Super entrant. This Mr. Greely son has rounded back into form in his last two, after disappointing in three straight. Last out in the Arkansas Juvenile Lock, he ran a 110 speed figure, but was still beaten 1/2 of a length. He sat in the middle of the field early, and couldn’t catch Killing Game late. Should be in mid pack early, and doesn’t deserve favoritism in my opinion.
BILL THE BUTCHER
AFC: A short two months ago, after powering home in the Equinics, this guy was at the top of everyone’s list. Then, a funny thing happened. He got butchered in his next two, including an alw race you’d expect a Derby horse to crush. Look closely at his pp’sÖdoesn’t that Equinics effort stick out like a sore thumb? Sure does. Does he have a ten length improvement in him? I won’t bet on that. Bill the Butchered.
Whirlwind: Appeared to be coming up roses with his win in the Equinics but his Florida Derby race leaves a great deal of doubt. He appears to have prepped in an allowance race, while being forced to rate off the pace. He has the pedigree to go the distance, was weighted only 7 lbs off the high weight on the Experimental Handicap but I think his whole race and chances will be decided in the opening half mile.
Pazjazz: Hey AFC, you’re stealing all of my lines. I’m getting BUTCHERED here! I want to go first next horse! His Equinics win he beat a couple of other horses in this race but that seems so long ago. That last Allowance race is hard to get by. And that’s not even mentioning his crash in the Florida Derby which had a slow pace. I can’t see this one getting there.
Gowans: Three back, this Rock Hard Ten colt won the 9.5 furlong Equinics race. But then he bounced in the Florida Derby Lock two back. Last out, he ran 2nd in an allowance, hanging a bit in the lane. He was seven back early, and could not catch the leader late. His dam won at 9f. So, I think he’ll be fine at the distance, given his win at 9.5 three back, and his dam, but does he have the class? Will be up close early.
BUSHWHACKED TED
AFC: Has not won beyond a flat mile. Worse than that, he’s been backpedaling at an amazing rate in his races beyond a mile. Even when he’s WON at a mile, the field was closing on him quickly. Will get absolutely KO’d by the quarter pole on Saturday.
Whirlwind: Tired badly in his last two races and with the expected pace Saturday, it will take a huge form reversal to hit the board. Was on a roll and brilliant in November through January, but seems to have hit the wall. Qualifies on dosage and weighting on the Experimental Handicap, but hasn’t won a graded race in 2010. He will be prominent in the pace scenario but I don’t think he will be near the lead as they turn for home.
Pazjazz: AFC, I think you’ve nailed this one as he looks like a mile at best and kind of looking BUSHwacked lately. He had quite a run at the end of last year for the Pup Stable though and has some talent. He’s another one with a strange Sire, OFFICIAL FLAME as he’s the only Graded winner. Not only that but only one other offspring even has one single win. Kinda’ strange.
Gowans: After winning three races, by a nose, head, and Ω length, he has tailed off in his past two, they were both lock races. Last out in the California Derby Lock, he pressed the pace hard for five furlongs, and then started to retreat. He finished 7th beaten only five lengths as the 5-1 favorite. As the other writers have said, he may be better at a shorter distance, and I cannot see him getting 10 furlongs. Should be up close early, and at 13-1 offers no value.
CURLING
AFC: The Eclipse winner’s past performance line since his BB Juvy win- 5-12-6-6. He has one win beyond a mile, and that was in the BB. After that, he’s been backing up in the lane faster than a French tank facing a row of fighter jets. He’s been Housebustered big time. Needs to go back to sprinting. Perhaps he will after he gets beaten like a baby seal in the Derby.
Whirlwind: Another Eclipse jinx? He has been beaten an average of 7 lengths in his races since turning 3 and is not the same colt he was last year. His pedigree barely fits the dosage profile and he has yet to win going longer than 8 ½ panels. His natural early speed will be sorely tested with an abundance of speed in the Derby.
Pazjazz: It’s funny how those runs to the front can be so easy as a two year old and everyone catches up and passes you at three. They’ve been CURLING around him in the stretch and trainer Snowclan can’t stop the bleeding. He will be the early speed in the race but I can’t see any possible way he can hold ‘em off down the stretch.
Gowans: Two straight 6ths for the first of three Curlin sons. Last out in the Wooden Indian Lock, he was pressed hard for the lead, and was pushed back to 3rd at the 3rd Call, and tired late to finish 6th beaten 8 1/2. Two back he posted a 100 speed figure, but did finish 6th, only beaten four lengths. Only one of his siblings has won past 6 furlongs. Distance a problem, the company may be a problem. Not for my liking.
LEFT OF REASON
AFC: Man, how many Curlin offspring are in this field? This is number 5 already. Amazing. This one may be the best of the bunch, along with Curly Q. Always closing in his races, consistent, and you know Lenny’s got his Derby out there waiting somewhere. You can’t beat the law of averages for eternity. A Curlin exacta box with this guy and Curly sounds like a rock solid bet for this race. But Lenny better shed his ‘Pletcher’ tag quickly: his 0-for-ever in the Derby is the lone glaring spot on an otherwise gleaming resume.
Whirlwind: The Empire brings their son of Curlin to the race on what they hope will be peaking at just the right time. It appears that he will relish the additional furlong but the Derby is rarely won by an inexperienced colt. He was a late bloomer and was not ranked on the Experimental Handicap, so is not a dual qualifier. Comes from a savvy barn that is bound to break their Derby jinx eventually, will this be the year?
Pazjazz: I’ll tell you AFC, I learned a long time ago not to bet against Lenny in these big Triple Jewel races as he always seems to be in the money with these lightly raced youngsters. This guy certainly gives you REASON to believe with his impressive record in only six races with four wins and two seconds in the Lock Races. Does he have enough to finish it off this time? It just might be. CURLIN is this year’s DISTORTED HUMOR who sired so many entries last year.
Gowans: The 2nd of the three Curlin colts, has never been out of the exacta in six career starts. Last two both locks, and both 2nds. Last out in the Wooden Indian, he sat in mid pack early, but couldn’t catch Moldavia, he was beaten two lengths, but still earned a 103 speed fig. Two Back at 8.5 furlongs in the All Saints Derby he was a little farther back than the Wooden Indian, and rallied late, but again was beaten two lengths. Should be in mid pack early, and will be rolling late.
DEHERE PEAS BAD
AFC: Ran like he ate some bad peas in the Corkscrew. Just an ugly effort. Figures to be part of the pace; I think he’s one of the first to suffer a meltdown. We talked before about the Corkscrew Stakes being a key Derby prep. Well, it’s an even stronger indicator if you LOSE the Corkscrew. Only one Corkscrew loser- Silverwore- has even managed to hit the board in the Bluegrass Derby. Most Corkscrew losers turn in absolute stinkers in the Derby. Add this guy to that list.
Whirlwind: In his last race, the Corkscrew, he collapsed like a table at Wrestlemania. He has speed to burn and I would expect him to jet from the gate and try to take it gate to wire. He qualifies on dosage and his weighting on the Experimental Handicap. To win, he will have to run the race of his career because he will have to fight the entire trip.
Pazjazz: This chestnut colt had it running pretty well before he tanked in the Corkscrew. I won’t use that BAD PEAS joke again but it was pretty sick. Should be up front early but I can’t see him hanging on at the end. This Aussie bred bounce back from his only other bad race with two straight wins. Conquest Farms would sure like to see that kind of streak again.
Gowans: This Dehere colt was beaten soundly by Flame Of Apollo last out. Last out in the G1 Corkscrew, it was the 1st time ever he did not have the lead at Call 1. He was farther back at every call. He finished 10th by 10 º as the co 6-1 favorite. Two back he posted a 102 speed figure, but he was beaten 1 length, finishing 2nd. Neither of his siblings have won past a mile, but one is a 2yo, and his dam never won past 7 furlongs. Might be in the lead early, but needs a big effort.
JUST VENGEANCE
AFC: One win in the past nine months. However, he’s been improving lately, albeit slowly. Still, he’s another one who will sit close to the early pace, and in his past three efforts, he’s been losing ground in the stretch. Tries to win the Derby off only two starts at age three. That’s never happened before. Only three- Anticosti, Virtuoso and Hot and Spicy have won the Derby off as few as three races at three prior to the Derby. Not a big difference, you say? Well, how about this- of the combined nine starts the aforementioned three made before taking the Roses, they were 8 for 9. Just Vengeance? Not even on the board at three. Just Beaten next Saturday.
Whirlwind: He probably needed his outing in the All Saints after 3 months off but his run in the Arkansas Juvenile was disappointing. He ran his normal race, looked poised to go and never fired. He qualifies with dosage and weighting and already has a graded win over the surface. He hasn’t won since September though, and that doesn’t bode well for his chances.
Pazjazz: I may have my VENGEANCE on this JAZIL sired colt if he tanks this weekend. I bred a couple of JAZIL offspring last year and I don’t think either of them have won their maiden yet. He’s not on my good list and neither is this colt. He may be in the top half but I just don’t see him getting the top prize here. The Dead Meadow Farms may feel a bit different though.
Gowans: Has not won a race since SEPTEMEBER. A big plotter here, usually comes with a run, but can’t finish with the top two/three. This son of Jazil has run in two straight locks. Last out in the Arkansas Juvenile he tracked in 3rd, but had no run and hung on for 5th, earning a 102 speed figure. Two back he again did not have much run, finishing 4th in the All Saints Derby. Will be tracking the pace early, offers nothing at the windows at 13-1.
STARS OF BUDA
AFC: Just don’t think he’s good enough. His second in a poor running of the Florida Derby gets him here. He hasn’t been that much better than that. Drubbed in the Arkansas Derby. Will take a turnaround of legendary proportions to figure in the Bluegrass Derby. If you’re a contrarian, you can forgive the Arkansas Derby effort. Even if you toss that one out, do you think he’s got a 10 length improvement in him? I don’t.
Whirlwind: Topicount’s son of Fu Peg was on a fast learning curve until he ran into a brick wall in his last outing, the Arkansas Juvenile, beaten 14 lengths. He is very lightly raced and could easily rebound with a top effort. Has the dosage and was weighted 8 lbs off the highweight in the Experimental Handicap. Comes from a very savvy barn with a great deal of experience winning big races.
Pazjazz: How could this Topicount entry be a STAR in the Fla Derby and tank it so badly in the Arkansas? He sure didn’t show any improvement between those two and you have to wonder if he was in the right place at the right time in Florida. FuPeg is kind of hit and miss as a Sire these days and that’s kind of what this colt could do here…hit or miss.
Gowans: This colt was a disappointment last out, after charging hard to get 2nd in the Florida Derby Lock. Last out he ran in the Arkansas Derby Lock at 9 furlongs. He was far back in the early stages, and never had a rally, finishing 10th, beaten 14. Two back in the Florida Derby Lock, he was in last early, came hard, but couldn’t catch Begone Oasis. He was 2nd, beaten 1 length. He will be far, far back early, and might or might not come calling late.
SHOBIZ BOUND
AFC: Somebody is drinking spiked ‘koolaid’ if they think this guy will even make a dent in the Derby. Still eligible for NW3L, one win in the past nine months, and that was at long odds at age two. He’s lost his last four by a total of 47 lengths. To make matters worse, if he starts, he’s another trying to win the Derby off only two starts at age three. Top figure in his last four? 90. No way. Ever.
Whirlwind: Has been beaten an average of 11 lengths in his last four races. The son of Nobiz Like Shobiz is still eligible for NW3L or NW2X and hasn’t appeared to have matured since his win in the End Of The Line Futurity. He does qualify on dosage and was 5 lbs off on the Experimental Handicap. All you need is a horse that has the earnings and a dream. Dream on!
Pazjazz: Wow, 45/1 and this guy has been running like his legs have been BOUND. His last four finishes, 13th, 14th, 11th and 8th. He sure looks like one of those two year olds that left it all in last year. I hope for trainer Koolaid’s sake that is not the case but it would be the surprise of the year if he turns it around in this one.
Gowans: The longest shot in the field here, hasn’t won since October, and hasn’t been in the top five yet this year. His last race was the G2 Lane’s End at 9 furlongs. He was last out of the box, and passed a couple tiring horses in the late stages to manage an 8th, beaten ten. His only winning sibling has won at 7.5 and 8.5, and his dam never won past a mile. Needs a miracle, and I’m not sure Calvin Borel could get this one home.
KITZBUHEL
AFC: Might get bumped out if everyone in front of him goes, and the fillies both enter. That would be a bit of an injustice. He’s getting better, and he has the look of a colt who’s going to really enjoy 10 furlongs. He’s a bit of a plodder, but he’s always making up ground late. Took advantage of a slow pace in the G2 Land’s End to get up and win. Might find things a bit harder here with the faster anticipated pace, which gets him shuffled further back, but he could grind it out and make things interesting late.
Whirlwind: Looked ready to bust out after his win in the Land’s End, but then caught an off track in the Chicago Derby and still ran credibly with a #101. Qualifies on dosage and was favorably weighted on the Experimental Handicap. The son of Touch Gold has been getting better with each race and could be sitting on a big one.
Pazjazz: This guy named for a Ski Resort city in Austria is a real mouthful. I won’t even try to work his name into my write up! He’s improved four races in a row and if he does it again, the Moose Hollow Farm could be hefting a big trophy at the end. He would be a real come from nowhere story if he can pull it off. Other than the fact that he’s never won a G1, I can’t find too much wrong with him.
Gowans: Two good runs in his last two for this Touch Gold colt. One a win and one a 4th closing on a sloppy track. Last out he raced in the Chicago Derby on sloppy track. He was ten lengths back early, and closed willingly to easily get 4th, beaten four lengths. Two back he won the G2 Land’s End. He was closer to the pace in that one, as he was only five down early, and grinded it out to win by a º of a length. I think he might be in the 12th-15th range early, and might come with a run.
LUCKY’S HOWIE
AFC: Draws in at the final minute with the scratch of BIG TIME FAVORITE. Makes the Derby off the merits of his hard fought second in the Equinics. The more he runs, though, the more that race looks like an aberration. After firing a 101 on that day, he suffered bad looking off the board losses in a listed stakes and the Sand Castle Derby. Rebounded to win his last race in stakes company- at 5.5f. One for seven routing in his career. Should be part 
of the pace mix, but will be one of the first ones to get fried. If he pulls this off, it would be the strangest prep race I’ve ever seen for the Derby, running in a 5.5f stakes race. In fact, he’d be the only winner of the Derby to come in off a sprint race of any kind. He’s here for the party, not for the win. Forget it.
Pazjazz: This guy was LUCKY enough to kind of slip in the Derby with a number 22 ranking. He won one G3 before Halloween last year and hasn’t been able to hold onto a lead since then with the exception of his last race against a four horse field in an listed Stakes race. Let’s face it…he ain’t LUCKY enough to win this one but I sure would trade places with owner MrLucky and have my first Derby entry!
Gowans: This Gone West colt won a 5.5 furlong stake in his last, beating only three horses. He sat off the pace setter early, and held off a challenge late to win by 1/2 of a length at 1-9 odds. Two back in the G1 Sand Castle Derby Lock at 9 furlongs. He off the pace early, made a little move, but then flattened out to finish 6th, beaten 5 lengths. Should be up close early, and doesn’t have much of a shot in my mind.
THE FILLIES:
MOLDAVIA
AFC: Tough to find a knock on her. She’s been first or second in all eight of her career starts; gave it up grudgingly in the Equinics, otherwise she comes in on a five race win streak. Her game dam, Dangerous Reward, is simply outstanding- she’s tossed three GSWs out of six foals (one is unraced), including Eclipse Award winner TITLE DEFENSE. She comes from one of the top barns in the history of the game. The only thing missing on Dixie’s ledger, like Lenny, is a Bluegrass Derby win. She’s improved in each of her starts at age three. Outside of being a filly, there’s nothing not to like. But there’s that glaring lack of a package between the legs..will be tough, but…
Whirlwind: Beautifully bred Amazon daughter from top producing broodmare, Dangerous Reward, will probably take first run at the leaders as they head into the far turn. Her tactical speed should keep her out of trouble in the early running. Comes from top trainer, who knows how to win big races. Her win in the Wooden Indian was picture perfect. She has a very big shot at taking it all this weekend but that final furlong is going to separate the boys from the girls.
Pazjazz: As the guys said, it is really tough to pick against this girl. She has the backing of the renowned DixieDotCo Stables, she is improving, knows how to win and whipped them all in the Wooden Indian Lock. Is it time for our first female Derby winner? I love the breeding, jockey Gardner is red hot this year. It sure looks like all the stars are aligned for this girl. She could turn out to be the Queen of MOLDAVIA with a win here.
Gowans: Probably the best of the fillies. Never worst then 2nd in eight career starts. Her last start in the Wooden Indian Lock she ran the 2nd fastest time of the Lock races. Her last two races have been won by four combines lengths. Also, they were 103 and 105 speed figures. She’s bred to get the distance, being a sibling to a Breeder’s Bowl Turf winner and 9.6 million dollar earner, but will the colts overpower her? Good for the exotics.
YOU SEE LA
AFC:The second filly to qualify off a stirring win in the lock prep Chicago Derby,where she pretty much ran away with it. Doesn’t look like she’ll be stoppinglate. But the sire- who the hell is Special Week? For those of you who don’tknow (as I didn’t), he was sired by a Derby winner, Sunday Silence. In with alegit shot, but you just knew at some time, I had to ask: what exactly is wrongwith winning the Bluegrass Oaks? Considering that Moldavia is more than likelyto go in the Derby, this gal would be a big, big favorite in the Oaks. But thereis only one Derby, right?
Whirlwind: She has made it a habit to beat the boys, but the Derby may be asking a bit much from this filly at this time. She beat a weak field in Chicago Derby in the slop and will be facing a field of quality and quantity for the first time. By a Japan based son of Sunday Silence, Special Week, she is going to need all the breaks to go her way in the race for her to be competitive. Puts in a big closing run and will be passing tired horses but I don’t think she passes the cream of the field.
Pazjazz: It looks like there is some kind of gender conspiracy pushing the two ladies way outside in this race. YOU SEE, the old boys want to make sure that this race is a gentleman’s game. She comes in her winning five of six on the dirt and only two of them were against the girls. Could she pull off the huge gender upset? Owner Next Bonus would be flying forever if she can. She looks plenty tough but it’s a really tall order.
Gowans: The other filly, comes in on three straight wins, all by a length+. This filly has run against the boys four out of her seven starts, so nothing new here. Last out on a sloppy track in the Chicago Derby Lock, coming from almost nine down, won by 1 1/4. Filly is half to a stakes placed 5yo, who has won with a 108 speed figure at 12 furlongs. Distance shouldn’t be much of a problem. Should be in mid pack early, a nice filly, but don’t know how she’ll do here.
AFC’s PICKS:
I really like two of the Curlins in here- LEFT OF REASON and CURLY Q. I think both have an excellent shot to pull off the win. MOLDAVIA should be tough, but I can’t get excited about a filly in this race (yes, I know a filly won the New Yorker last year- that makes fillies victorious in one of 33 Triple Jewel races in the history of the Sim)- they’re just bucking a huge historical trend.
Speaking of historical trends, FLAME OF APOLLO fits more historical trends of winners of the Bluegrass Derby than any horse I’ve ever seen coming to the race. There’s a big asterisk attached here, though- previous Corkscrew winners had six weeks off before the Derby. This year, they have three weeks. Is that enough time to recover off a career best effort?
Finally, if KILLING GAME improves at all, it’s over. He’ll run away with it. But his inexperience is a big negative, as is coming off a race where he improved on his previous career best effort by about 12 lengths. He is, though, the most likely of the early speed to stick around for a piece.
Wagers: 50 across on Flame of Apollo, Curly Q and Left of Reason.
50 ex box Curly Q/Left of Reason.
10 superfecta box, Curly Q/Left of Reason/Flame of Apollo/Killing Game/Moldavia.
5 trifecta wheel, Left of Reason/ Flame of Apollo with both plus Curly Q, Killing Game, Moldavia, Bill the Butcher and Kitzbuhel underneath if he gets in. The latter is my longshot bomb.
Those bets are how I would play if I could. With the limitations of Sim betting (and the huge amount of worthless Sim bucks I have laying around), here are my Sim style bets:
2500 across the board on Flame of Apollo, Curly Q and Left of Reason.
2500 exactas: Curly Q/Left of Reason. 2500 the other way, too. Combination exactas with Flame of Apollo, Left of Reason, Curly Q, Moldavia and Killing Game
2500 trifectas: A whole bunch of combos with Curly Q, Left of Reason, Flame of Apollo, Killing Game, Moldavia, Perfect Game Ted and Kitzbuhel. Worthless Sim bucks, may as well have some fun.
And why not a top six to finish it off? Sorry to jinx you, Ryan, but consider this payback for the Equinics a couple years ago:
W- LEFT OF REASON
P- FLAME OF APOLLO
S- CURLY Q
4- MOLDAVIA
5- KILLING GAME
6- KITZBUHEL
WHIRLWIND’s PICKS:
Flame has a very good shot and even Inauguration has a chance if he gets the trip, they are both pretty consistant. I also like Dixie’s fillyas well.
PAZJAZZ’s PICKS:
This is really a wide open race. When was the last time you saw a Morning Line with this many horses and none under 10/1? I’ve got five horses that I could see race against each other five times and have five different winners. I looked into my official limited edition Bluegrass Derby Crystal Ball (They sell them in the gift shop!) and here is what I came up with:
1. CURLY Q 2. MOLDAVIA 3. LEFT OF REASON 4. PERFECT GAME TED 5. FLAME OF APOLLO
GOWANS’ PICKS:
Here would be my sim cash plays at the windows:
- $2000 across the board on #11, 18, 19
- $1000 to show on #6, 8
- $1000 Exacta Box #3, 11, 18, 19
- $50 Trifecta 11, 18, 19-3, 11, 18, 19-3, 5, 6, 8, 11, 18, 19, 20
- $10 Superfecta 11, 18, 19-3, 11, 18, 19-3, 5, 6, 8, 11, 18, 19, 20-3, 5, 6, 8, 11, 18, 19, 20.
Ok here we go with my final picks:
1st: 11
2nd: 18
3rd: 19
4th: 3
5th: 8
6th: 6
7th: 20