The Grade I Good Day
The Grade I Good Day
1 6-1 ICECHASER- VT Overeasy(ENG) homebred 4yo colt
Echo of Light x d-rated Buist’s Return (Forty Niner x Sadler’s Wells)
22-10-4-2 285K career earnings
Icechaser (18.1%- 46%) brings a beast of a four year old to France this week. He is coming off a career best performance and speed figure in the Grade III Winter Derby last time out. He simply ran a perfect race just getting up at the wire while running an eye popping 113 speed figure. That was his first graded win in his first graded try which is not necessarily an easy thing to do. I love the form that this horse is showing right now, but I think there might be a bit of a regression this week after that monstrous effort last time out. This guy is a deep closer coming from the clouds in most of his starts and that is the trip I would expect this week. There is not a ton of speed so he might have some problems if he leaves too much work to do late. When a horse bounces he just isn’t quite as sharp as normal which leaves this guy closing in the end, but not quite getting the job done. This might be the best horse in the race, but probably not this week, although winning would be no shock at all. Look at the form though, in his last six races he has won four and had two second place finishes, although all but one were in listed stakes races. Hard to pick against this guy, but that last race might have been a little too good.
Best speed-113
Best speed at distance- 108
Race trip- deep closer, will be coming from the clouds
Predicted finish- 3rd, but if he runs his last race back he wins, probably bounces though.
2 6-1CECLAIM21- Gormenghast(IRE) scratch homebred 5yo horse
Danehill Dancer x Fappiano x Roberto
26-10-5-5 1.6 million career earnings
Ceclaim21 (14.7%- 45.6%) has a multiple graded winning son of Danehill Dancer to throw into the mix this week. This is a very nice horse that has had some trouble finding the winner’s circle lately as his last win came back in October of last year in the Grade I Coffeefields cup. The fact is while he has had a couple of decent third place finishes he has also thrown two absolute bombs in there as well. In his last three grade one tries he was beaten a combined 52 lengths, that is right 50+ lengths. Not sure what is going on with this guy right now, but he isn’t right. There is no reason for him to finish a well beaten third place in an open allowance three back. Enough of what I don’t like let us talk about why after all of this he still has a shot. While he has not run this short of a race in almost two years he seems to run a tad better at eleven furlongs than twelve and the shortening up just a bit more might be what the doctor ordered. His last race he was showing some signs of life with a closing third place and a 109 speed figure in the Grade II Winter Derby. His top speed figure of 112 puts him in the class of horse that can certainly win this thing. He is another deep closer that will most likely be ten plus lengths back early. The more that I write, the more I like this guys chances. It looks like he might be out of his funk and could run a huge race this week and get the win. Not going to pick him, but I do reserve the right to say I saw this coming later.
Best speed-112
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- Deep closer, should be coming from the clouds
Predicted finish- 4th, but upside is big enough that a win would not surprise me at all.
3 7-1 TOTE- Jubbly(IRE) homebred 5yo horse
Shamardal x C-rated Burchell Hollandia (Red Bullet x Seattle Slew)
27-10-5-6 401K career earnings
Tote (20.8%- 53.4%) takes the ferry across the channel and arrives with a nice son of the undefeated on turf Shamardal. The first thing I see when looking at this guys past performances was his last race in the Grade III Winter Derby. Well that race was so unlike him and such an outlier that I am crossing it out and am not even going to look at it. He had a bad day and nothing more. Unlike most of the other horses in this race that are dropping in distance, this guy has been doing almost all of his running at ten furlongs. As a matter of fact his last nine races have been at ten. He has won a stakes race at this distance so the extra half furlong should have no impact on his ability to win. He has one graded win and that was two back, but was on an off track. The fact is his last stakes win on a firm turf course was way back in January of 2009. That is a long fricking time. His best speed figure of 112 says he can win, but when he runs his best races he still can not win, and I do not see this changing this week. If this was an off track this would be my guy, but alas it is not. He has shown a lot of versatility in the past as to his placement and I really have no idea where he is going to sit this race. My gut tells me he might be on the lead this week with the lack of overall speed in this race, and he has shown some zip in the past wiring a field back in 2008. If not on the lead I would expect a stalking trip.
Best speed- 112
Best speed at distance- 106
Race trip- stalking trip, but could be on the lead if no one else wants it.
Predicted finish- 5th, but back class could mean a much higher finish.
4 10-1 BUFFY8- Fall Schirmjagger(KY) homebred 4yo colt
Rock Hard Ten x D-rated Buda on the March (Dixieland band x Sadler’s Wells)
16-5-6-1 327K career earnings
Buffy8 (22.2%- 46.9%) has a nice four year old son of Kentucky bred Rock Hard Ten. This horse has not had to travel this week as they raced in France last time out. That race was a great one indeed as he scored his first graded victory in the Grade III Night at the Exbury. Once again though we see that was on an off track and his performances in graded starts on a firm course have been ok, but not great. This guy’s speed figures are just a tick below the top horses in this race which means that he will most likely need a career best effort to score a win. As a four year old however, he still is getting better and maturing so that is certainly possible. To show that point, one need only look at his last two races which happened to be his first and second best speed figures. This is exactly the kind of horse that can come in under the radar blast out a great race and score the big upset. Hard to say exactly what his best distance is at this point, he can run pretty darn well at ten or twelve, so distance is not an issue this week at all. In short fields this guy prefers a close up stalking trip, but in full fields he has shown that he prefers to close from pretty far back. I would expect him to be a deep closer this week, but not way back, maybe six or seven back. If he runs his normal race he will finish somewhere midpack, but if he can step it up a bit and improve on his last race he has a legitimate shot.
Best speed- 107
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- Deep closer, but not too far back.
Predicted finish- 5th, needs to improve on his best so far.
5 5-1 SINNER- Winter Quest(ENG) homebred 5yo horse
Rainbow Quest x C-rated Winter Storm II (Deputy Minister x Storm Bird)
26-9-3-3 1.1 million career earnings
Sinner (11.8%- 33.4%) ships in from the desert with their multiple graded stakes winning five year old. This is another of the horses this week that is dropping in distance. He has run his last 14 races at 11 furlongs or longer with almost all of them at 12 or 14 furlongs. This might be a sign of a little desperation because since he won back to back graded stakes races back in July and August of last year he has been unable to find the winners circle, and really has not been all that close. A look at the pedigree says that this one may not really like a drop in distance as he is bred to run all day and part of the next. He generally is a deep closer, but a look back at the Grade I Canada turf back in October of last year shows him going to the front and opening up by seven before fading late and finishing fourth beaten six. A drop in distance with another front running race might leave him enough in the tank to get the job done. Than angle might be the most interesting one to play out this week. If he does not get on the engine early he will most likely be sitting way off the pace as this might be the deepest of the deep closers and could be 20 back early. That might work at twelve furlongs, but I do not see that happening at 10.5.
Best speed- 111
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- Deepest of the deep closers, but might just be up on the lead
Predicted finish- Out of top 5, distance drop looks like desperation.
6 9-1 PINCAY- Khartoum Killer(IRE) scratch homebred 4yo filly
Sadler’s Wells x Diesis x Irish Ruler
14-6-4-2 770K career earnings
Pincay (15.5%- 41.6%) ships in from Japan this week with the only lady that is willing to take on the boy, and a four year old at that. This is a filly that has taken on the boys at the top levels and won. In December of last year as a three year old she stepped in against older open company and promptly crushed them in the Grade I Los Angeles Turf. She should be the speed in this race, and is the only horse this week that has shown pretty consistent speed every race. She does not necessarily need the front to win as she has won multiple times sitting in a close up stalking position, but he only graded win was wire to wire. Once again we have a horse that is dropping in distance as this gal has done almost all over her running as of late at 12-16 furlongs since last July. It is very hard to say exactly how she is going to react to this since the last time she ran less than eleven furlongs was way back in June of her three year old campaign. As much as I love this filly, there are so many unknowns to deal with this week. This will be her seventh graded start in a row for a young horse, her fifth start against the boys in her last seven races, and she is coming of a very short four weeks rest off of a very salty grade II. She is a very talented filly, but I think she just has too many things working against her this week.
Best speed- 110
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- on the engine, gunning for the lead. If not will be stalking
Predicted finish- Out of the top five, awful lot for a young filly to handle.
7 6-1 ELCHEAPO- Not So Cheap(KY) scratch homebred 5yo horse
Forestry x Pulpit x Gone West
31-13-7-3 1.8 million career earnings
Elcheapo (13.8%-42.3%) brings in a grizzled veteran of the graded stakes scene. This guy has three graded victories that I can see in the past performances, and is really crossing up his pedigree to run the distances that he does. There is not a whole lot of stamina in any part of his pedigree but has consistently won at distances up to a mile. He has run only four races at ten or 10.5 furlongs and has two wins and two seconds to show for it. Like a whole bunch of fellow competitors he is dropping drastically in distance. Four of his last five races have been at twelve and 16 furlongs. In February he ran at this week’s distance in an open allowance and finished a closing second place, but never was threatening beaten a solid three. Like the other horses trying this angle, he is a deep closer that may not quite have the pop in his pedigree to get up in time. This guy is a proven winner with a ton of class, but I think that a race this short takes him out of his element just a bit too much. If he was a speed horse I would like this move a little more, but closing from where he will be is asking a bit much for a horse like him. I would look to see him around fifteen lengths back early and while I do think he might make up some ground late I do not think he is the best closer and probably will be in the mix, but not enough track to close the show.
Best speed- 112
Best speed at distance- 109
Race trip- deep closer, will be coming from the clouds
Predicted finish- 2nd, just don’t think he can win at this distance.
8 19-1 DESIMSTER6- Higher Calling(KY) homebred 4yo colt
Awesome Again x C- rated Seeking Pie (Seeking the Gold x Theatrical)
14-4-3-1 116K career earnings
Desimster6 (12.8%- 39.6%) brings in the longest shot in the field this week. This horse is pretty lightly raced and will be making his first graded stakes attempt and his second stakes race in total. His last race was his first stakes try and he ran a decent second place at 9.5 furlongs in only a five horse field. He is in very good form right now winning two of his last four with two second place finishes. While this form looks really good, he has been racing against much softer company than he will se this week and he has been protected in very short fields since last July. Those types of lines in the PP’s do no inspire much confidence. He is regally bred and certainly has the blood lines to run with this crew, but his previous races say he can not. He normally runs at between nine and ten furlongs, but has gone longer and his pedigree says distance should not be an issue. This guy has shown nice tactical speed in the past sitting off of whatever pace is there. He needs to be up close because in the past when he has not gotten involved early he packs in and does not run at all. There is a chance that happens this week as he is going to see some good old fashioned graded horse speed this week.
Best speed- 105
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- close up stalker
Predicted finish- Out of top five. Hard to imagine how he can be competitive.
9 8-1 ARMINARM- Tudor Manor(ENG) scratch homebred 5yo horse
Doyen x Strawberry Road x Tudor Minstrel
17-7-3-2 148K career earnings
Arminarm (20.8%- 54.1%) ships in from the kiwi land this week with a nice horse that is still looking for that elusive first graded stakes. This guy has raced in four graded starts with so so results with a third place finish as his best result. This horse has crushed some allowance fields and won his only listed stakes race, but simply is not the same horse when he steps up to graded company. His one start that was longer than ten furlongs was at 16, and that was an unmitigated disaster getting beat by 21 lengths. I think he will handle the 10.5 furlongs easy enough; it is the class of the competition that bothers me. A four race sampling is pretty good evidence that this guy simply is a notch below grade one competition. This guy generally sits pretty close in a stalking position, but has difficulty getting up front when he steps up in class. There is a chance that happens again this week with one legit speed horse, and how he reacts early will dictate how the race finishes up for him. I think he will end up mid pack and will have to try and close from there as I don’t think he can run right off of the pace this week. This horse has an outside shot, but will have to run better than he has in the past when he steps up.
Best speed- 110
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- Stalking, but may have to go to plan B and sit midpack.
Predicted finish- Out of top five, has not shown he can run with this type yet.
10 7-2 THETHUMB- Fallout Shelter(KY) scratch homebred 6yohorse
Ghostzapper x Nikinsky II x Buckpasser
34-16-5-1 838K career earnings
Thethumb (24.1%- 51.2%) ships in from Germany with the morning line favorite and a big shot at a grade one win. This guy started his career with 16 races on the dirt where he produced decent enough results, but was then switched to turf. Since that switch to turf he has found his groove with his best form being in the last five months. Normally horses hit the wall at this stage in their career, but he running his best races right now at this moment. The thing that I really like about this guy is that he is a proven commodity at this distance. He blasted a staggering 117 speed figure back in August of last year at this distance in a listed stake. If he runs anything close to that race this week he is gonna win in a laugher, and will not be challenged. I would expect to see him in the first flight of horses early sitting somewhat close, maybe five off of the front. He has three graded wins in eight starts, but I really think this is the class of the field. I rarely pick favorites, but I simply did not like anybody else close to this one. His last two races were wins with one being the Grade III Grand Prix and I think he makes in three in a row.
Best speed- 117
Best speed at distance- 117
Race trip- Stalking to midpack
Predicted finish- 1st, pretty hard to not love his chances.