Old Man of the Mountain Series V
The Old Man of the Mountain Series V continues this weekend in
1. Black Rain 48-1
Black Rain loves to run on the lead and with the inside post, should have a good shot to get there. One of three mares in the race, Black Rain has recently reached $100k in career earnings. She’s been running in local bred claimers mostly of late with speeds in the 80’s. Hard to see her holding lead to wire as she has been petering out in the later part of the races.
2.
3. Galadhrim 99-1
Winless since 2008, Galadhirm will make a switch to the dirt. He has 18 wins in 82 races, but on the dirt is 1 for 7. Speeds of late have been in the 70’s but last time on dirt (mid ’09) posted an 89 for short 5.5f. Doesn’t look promising but may have a hidden liking to the dirt. This will be first race over a mile for him since 2006 and he just looks overmatched.
4. Stormzapper 42-1
Stormzapper has been winless and off the board since 2007. This will be his third consecutive start in the Old Man series. In his last two races, he finished well behind with speeds of 80 and 85. He’s been in a long slump and this doesn’t look like the place for it to end.
5. Intergulch 32-1
An interesting entrant. Intergulch is one of 2 horses who has fewer than 40 starts, in fact, he only has 12 starts. He’s been in the same barn since ’04 where he ran briefly through ’05 and went to the pasture. He returned to racing in the fall of ’09 and has been doing rather well, despite the 2-1-1 record. In January of this year, he won an allowance (8f) in a career best 106 as an eight year old at 68-1. Last month, he finished forth in an allowance (8.5f) in a speed of 91. His speed numbers are looking decent and a $2.00 wager for show will pay out nicely. Potential spoiler.
6. Requiem’s Blade 9-1
Requiem ran his last pair of races in this series, finishing 6th and 8th with speeds in the mid-90 range. During 2009, he did post speeds over 100 a few times, and I believe the ability to do it again may still be inside this horse. Last time out, Requiem set the pace and got chewed up after the half. Best shot will be to set behind the front runners and take advantage of them later on.
7. Old Pulpit 6-1
Old Pulpit had some decent outings before his last race, which was run in this series. Those races resulted in the following finishes: 3rd, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 2nd and averaged a speed of 102. Not sure what happened in the Old Man race where he started off well and slumped to finish 9th well back with a speed of 89. That was his slowest speed since the spring of 2008. I hope for improvement, but get Parks in the saddle who has only won 3 races in 32 starts this year.
8. Controversy Again 27-1
In January, Controversy Again made a run in this series finishing 8th with a speed of 87. He followed this up with two consecutive 5th place finishes, earning some purse money and BP’s in the process. Controversy hasn’t hit the 90’s speed since last October and will need to get there to walk out with some money. He’s winless since ’06 and things just don’t add up to well for this oldtimer.
9. Vegas Hotshot 8-1
Since February 2009, Vegas Hotshot has only put in one race with a sub-90 speed rating. He’s been very consistent with the speed numbers and has a handful of races since that date in the 100’s. He has 2 races in this years Old Man Series, finishing 4th in January after running near the front and on the lead. In February he finished 7th after breaking from the gate poorly and getting caught up in the middle of the pack. Gets lightly used jockey Stinson (2 wins, 17 starts) and if he can get a good start, he’ll be a factor.
10. Hate Paper Doll 73-1
A quick look at the results of the last 4 races of Hate Paper Doll makes you wonder about the odds of 73-1 when you see 3 wins and a place. But when you look closer, you see they were local bred races with short fields of four and her trainer smartly took advantage of these events and receiving the payoff with it. However, Hate Paper Doll hasn’t broken the 90-speed level since last May and the softer fields and the lower speeds account for the odds in this race. The speed numbers work against this horses chances and jockey Kooper is 1 for 23.
11. Silver
Racing is about speed and this mare has it. Unfortunately, the speed I am talking about is her ability to lead the race, which she loves to do. I think she will be running on the front end early on, but her speed numbers have been lower than others in this race, which is her demise. She’s averaged 85 over last 6 starts and will need to boost that up significantly to beat these.
12. Show Biz Kid 27-1
Show Biz Kid needs to find a way to make his early speed last. He has 3 starts in this series this year, finishing 6th, 14th & 13th respectfully. He has run on or near the front early on but had plummeted way back with his speeds dropping from 90 to 77 throughout the racing series. He just doesn’t seem to like this track and with that I will have to pass on him.
13. Xander 7-2
Xander comes into the race as the favorite and he has been in two prior Old Man races this year where he was also sent off as the fave. However, he failed to produce in both races, finishing 4th and 8th with speeds of 100 and 92. He gets top jockey Fendlay (24% win) for the third time trip. Ten of his last 12 have speeds of over 100. Could the third time being sent off as favorite in this series be the charm? Or will he cave in like the Buffalo Bills did in three tries in the Super Bowl? Time will tell.
14. King of
King is one of two entrants with under 40 races and has a similar racing history as Intergulch, racing in ’04 & 05 and not running again until ’09. He has a record of 4-5-0 in 14 starts and put in a very impressive race in this series in his sole appearance in Feburary. In that race he finished 2nd setting a career mark of 109, taking the lead late in the race and relenting it in the final furlongs. He finished 8th in his last start a non-grade race at 8.5f in a speed of 96. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the King hit the board again.
15. Super Empire 5-1
Super Empire tried to pull off the upset last month in this series where he took over the lead near the ¾ pole at 8-1 but quickly gave it up and finished 4th with a speed of 102. He likes running just off the lead and for the most part, has been recording speeds in the mid to upper 90 range. He looks like a contender and could be trouble if he hits a 100-speed number again.
16. Bubba’s Tale 75-1
Bubba has three starts in the Old Man series this year and has had perhaps the “best seat in the house” in each race. Ok, bad joke, but he has finished last twice and next to last once. The races have been over a mile and Bubba has shown he just doesn’t like running this distance. His speeds have dropped from the 80’s + to 60’s and 70’s in this series also supporting the effect of the distance. Be interesting to see if he can get the “best seat in the house” this time with others that look like they also will not fare well.
17. L’Estasi Dell’Oro 12-1
L’Estasi has a pair of starts in the series and her first outing was terrible. In February she ran in the back of the field the entire race, finishing 19th in a field of 20 and a speed of 83. She fared much better in March, running a steady 4 to 7 strides off the leader. She started off 11th and finished a decent 5th (against 14) with a vastly improved speed to 102. She does not have any late speed and her best shot seems to be if she just keeps a steady pace, allowing others to tire and drop behind her. This larger field makes that harder to accomplish.
18. Beef Tooth 99-1
Beef Tooth looks very unlikely in this race. He’s finished on the back end of the field in his last 6 races and has not hit a speed over 80 since 2007. Three wins in 64 starts is not a promising sign either. Kind of reminds me of my horse Sersave (now retired) who was 1 for 100 careerwise. Expect him to be in the back of the field once again.
19. Our Town 5-1
Our Town really wants a win in this series. This will make his forth start and he gets best jockey McClendon (27% win) for forth time. In January, he finished 2nd charging hard at the end with a speed of 100. In February he finished 6th, cutting his way through tiring horses in a speed of 98. Last month he was 3rd in a speed of 102 again missing out. He has not put in a sub-90 speed since 2007 and has been very consistent with his speed numbers. He looks like he’ll make another charge to the front, but McClendon will have to send him earlier than he has in the past.
20. Machiamoon 99-1
This 8-year old horse is rapidly approaching mandatory retirement as he has 93 races under his belt and the magic #100 is not too far off. With 5 career wins, winning has become a rarity. His top speed since the start of 2009 is 71 and he is considerably overmatched in this race. Despite that, why not run the horse at least once in the Old Man series. Seems to be fitting considering he’ll be one of the rare horses to achieve 100 races.
Trackman Picks: 13-19-15-7
Yoss Picks: 19-15-9-17
My Picks: 19-14-5-15