Horseshoe Bay in tough examination
Three Grade 1 races take place this week over 12 furlongs on turf in three different continents. The USA stage the Classic Turf Stakes-G1, whilst over in France, Longchamp plays host to the Ark De Triumph-G1. Here in Australia, we have the Coalminer Cup with the biggest purse of all; $1.5 million prize-money is on offer to the 11 declared runners. Leading sophomore colt, Horseshoe Bay, is a last-minute entrant having been re-directed from his intended target, the Ark De Triumph, because of the inclement weather. Let’s check out the full field.
1. Horseshoe Bay texasace 5/1
I covered this guy in his last race, the Prix Du Jockey Club-G1, where he ran out one of the easiest Grade 1 winners in living memory. I am running out of superlatives to describe his achievements. Six Grade1 wins on the bounce is a new level of excellence that future generations will seek to aspire to and exceed. Sunnybank Memorial managed seven Graded wins in a row and Horseshoe Bay now seeks to emulate that feat. To do so, he must overcome the strongest field he has faced to date. The layers are not impressed with his record, making him joint second favorite behind Hey Zeus. In my eyes, he is at least the equal of Sunnybank Memorial, and 5/1 looks generous. Fill ya boots!
2. Arkansas Traveler lenny10 5/1
The great thing about writing an article each week, and especially on a certain division, is charting the progress of the individuals within that division. This guy was purchased for $10k by connections as an unfurnished 3yo from a maiden claimer last year and he has made steady progress ever since, culminating in a 3rd place finish in both the Windy City Turf Classic-G1 and the Man Of War-G1. All the evidence suggests that 12 furlongs should be within his compass and if he continues progressing at his current rate then it’s only a matter of time before he breaks his Grade 1 duck. On the upgrade.
This son of Theatrical is the perfect advert for patience having its own reward. A fair 3yo allowance runner, connections have taken their time with him, and now as a 6yo, the horse can mix it in the very best company. An impressive 4-length winner over 2 miles last time out, the distance shouldn’t be a problem and the only question he has to answer is ‘Is he good enough?’ Must hold every chance of proving he is.
4. Thomas Crown hurtem 99/1
Trainer having their first runners this week. We all have to start somewhere!
The number 1 ranked older long-turf filly in the game, this daughter of Theatrical must be a joy to own. Very few horses can reproduce their form on both surfaces but she is one of the exceptions. Five Grade 1 victories, three on turf and two on dirt is testament to her versatility and class and she pulled off a notable double last year by taking the GSR Derby-G1 against the colts and followed that up with victory in the GSR Oaks-G1 over 10 furlongs on dirt. She was slow to come to hand this year, taking six races to get off the mark but once at peak fitness she reeled off five wins in succession incorporating three graded wins including one against the boys. Look in the dictionary under versatile and you’ll see this filly’s name in bold letters.
6. Smart Canadian chasitey72 51/1
Former claimer who’s best run was a narrowly beaten second in a Grade 3 sprint. He has at no time shown pretensions to staying this far, especially in this grade, and is odds-on to get beaten a distance.
7. At The Chateau saver 5/1
If there’s a wedding near you soon, then you’ll probably see this guy performing the role of bridesmaid. It’s a role to which he is becoming accustomed. Seven Grade 1’s contested and his record reads 7: 0-2-1-1-2. I have a sneaky suspicion that Saturday’s trip will suit him well, his only previous run over the distance yielding a meritorious 4th in last year’s Ark De Triumph-G1, 2 lengths behind Sunnybank Memorial! His talent is not in question and one of these days the bridesmaid will become the blushing bride.
8. Delta River imatiger 20/1
One of a number of late developing 3yo’s that are only now beginning to find their feet. Two stakes wins, one over older opposition, is proof enough that he deserves the opportunity to test himself against the best on offer. This will be his first try at 12 furlongs but judged on his last run, he’s crying out for it. Dismiss at your peril.
I have to admit to having more than a casual interest in this fella’s performance having proposed a theory on his career to date to trainer foxon. In my opinion the horse runs better under certain conditions. I couldn’t possibly say if those conditions prevail on Saturday. What I will say is that on his day this son of Sadler’s Wells is a match for any horse in the game. Two Grade 1 victories is scant return for one of his talent and I have no doubt that his wins at the highest level will be at least doubled before his retirement.
10. Title Duke johnno1 6/1
This guy didn’t see a racecourse until the end of his 4yo year but he has certainly made up for lost time with a series of commendable runs in Grade 1 company. Arguably his best effort this year was a strong-finishing 3rd in the United Countries Handicap-G1 to Dancin In Seattle where he had any number of good horses behind. It was noticeable that connections kept him further off the pace than usual that day and those tactics obviously suit the horse. If you see him out the back early then expect him to come with a wet sail at the finish.
11. Minesweeper songcycle 9/1
Hails from the first crop of top older horse Mineshaft and is his sires only Grade 1 winner to date, a feat he achieved in the Big Red Stakes-G1 in his penultimate race. I can forgive his last run as he was bound to regress off a performance where he beat so many good horses. The form of the Big Red has worked out extremely well with so many future winners coming out of the race. This will be his first attempt at a trip beyond 10 furlongs so we won’t know for sure how he’ll cope with the step up. If he stays the distance, he holds every chance.
My picks:
- Horseshoe Bay
- Hey Zeus
- At The Chateau
- Minesweeper