Margins to be made on Betfair
Race : Craven Stakes – Grade III – $150,000
Track : Newmarket (ENG)
Race no : 4281.4913
This race in real life is the main trial race for the 2,000 Guineas for horses that do run before the race itself. It has been won by some very good horses in it’s time some that have gone to make a mark at stud including Silver Hawk, Lear Fan, Dancing Brave, Doyoun, Marju (on sire focus last week), Xaar and Haafhd.
The race is run over the same course as the classic and is good practice for a horse as the dip can cause horses to get unbalanced so experience is a massive plus.
This week I will look at a few studs the two main flat stud farms where I live. They are both down on stallion numbers this year for several reasons. The reasons being an early death and the export of stallions one to France and the other New Zealand.
The first stud is Ovebury Stud which is near a town called Tewksbury. Plenty of good horses have been bred there over the years but the best by far was the champion racehorse Grundy. He was one of the best racehorse anybody who saw him race is likely to see but did not really make it big time at stud. Interestingly his sire Great Nephew had another outstanding son in Shergar who did not leave a legacy at stud for other reasons. The tradition of breeding good flat horses in Gloucestershire is still there for all to see Al Shemali was bred by Willie Carson at his stud farm and 2008 Breeders Cup winner Donativum was bred in at Chris Wright’s stud think Chrysalis records.
It is worth noting that one of Juddmonte farms main broodmare and nurseries is also based in Gloucestershire and may of their (GB) bred horses are raised and foaled there including the Breeders Cup winner from 2009 Midday. There are many references to Gloucestershire in names of there horses.
The current stallions at Overbury are lead by Kayf Tara, he is not really a flat sire and has limited success in this field he is though an excellent national hunt sire and has had plenty of graded runners in that sphere. In fact he is one of the best young sires in the world for national hunt horses and has a long exciting future ahead of him. It would be no surprise to see him sire a Grand National winner in the next 10 years.
Bertolini – has been at stud a while now. He is closely related to Green Desert and has been well supported at stud. He is a source of speed and his offspring love the polytrack where he sires a lot of winners. There are very few sires based in England and Ireland who have sired more winners than this horse in the last five years. The quality is not always great but they race and win which is good news for the average owner in the real world. He has had six graded winner in real life and should be able to sire 3 or 4 stakes winner a year to a full crop.
Proclamation – was a very good race horse rated the best miler in Europe as a 3yo. The problem was he was kept in training got injured and this did not do him any favours when being retired to stud. He was though well supported as his stud fee was about a ¼ of what it would have been if retired a year earlier. He has one thing going for him an open age grade 1 win at three and a great turn of foot which if passed on will get him winners. He is sure to sire winner and a few a re likely to be decent with a full crop similar results to Bertolini would be expected. Some of his offspring should stay well even though he was a miler. It is worth noting his dad is closely related to the dam of Sea the Stars and Galileo.
The other stud is Tweenhills the owner David Redvers is a very good horseman and knows how to select horse at the sales. He runs a decent outfit as well. He can appear a bit of a prat at times breaking into the House of Commons because he did not like the hunting ban but he is very pro active in promoting racing which is a good thing. Most of the sires he has had at his stud have so far well outperformed paper expectations. This is due in a large amount to his ability at both selecting prospective stallions and the kind of mares which should suit them.
Lucky Story – he was a very good 2yo unbeaten after debut. He got injured at three but was still the highest rated 3yo miler of his year. His full brother Dr Fong has done ok at stud with a steady flow of stakes winners. This horse got a grade 1 winner from his first crop. He has had a few other half decent horses. He has already sired a 2yo winner this year. He is mainly a source of speed which may surprise people being a son of Kris S but that is not all that uncommon. He works well with Danzig line mares as well. He is capable with a full crop of getting around 3 stakes winners per crop with the odd one being decent.
Sleeping Indian – is a first year sire in real life. He already has a winner form only two runners which is a good start. He was himself a decent horse best at around a mile in fact a typical Indian Ridge. He was somewhat unlucky in the Breeders Cup not to come at least second. The stud has supported him with hand picked mares and his owner George Strawbridge sent him mares as well which has to be seen as a positive sign. He first yearlings sold well and got positive reviews. He will get winners already have and some will be decent it would be a major shock if some were not stakes quality as well. He could well out perform expectations as a sire as his own sire did before him. Expect around 4 to 5 stakes winner with the odd graded winner per full crop if rated correctly.
Of course in the real world there is only one horse race this weekend the Grand National the most watched and more importantly most gambled on race in the world. The wonders of Betfair mean that most people in the UK and Ireland can make money what ever happens to the horse by backing and laying and making a margin on the result.
The field make up of this race is once again poor and bears no reflection on reality. This really cannot carry on for a long period of time now with regional racing being introduced into the sim. There are two classic trials in France today in the first of the sixteen sires and dam sire 13 did there racing in Europe the only sire who did not is now dead. In the second 11 of 14 did there racing in Europe with the only sire being dead interestingly the same horse Hennessy. In every case at least one of the two is a horse who raced in Europe. The era of American sires being the best in the world is long gone and dead.
The race today has the added problem off an off track somewhat strange for Newmarket given the climate there and how well the land drains but such is life. This could have a serious bearing on the results.
CAPE BOJADOR (KY) HENRYTHENAVIGATOR x STORM CAT x SEEKING THE GOLD
This horse a plausible pedigree for turf racing in Europe. The main issue is going to be the ground his sire hated any give in the going. From the limited runners of his I have seen it would appear this may well be reflected in his offspring as well. We have no evidence to support this theory for this horse at present. Interestingly he has only run on turf twice his last two races and has improved for the switch of surfaces. His only run over 8f plus on dirt was in a graded race and he did post a good speed figure relative to his other runs. It is hard to weigh up this horses chance given the number of x factors but overall I would be surprised if he was to win.
GOMARIZ (KY) EL PRADO (IRE) x UNBRIDLED’S SONG x CAT THIEF
El Prado now dead was another horse how raced in Ireland he won the National Stakes as a 2yo in Ireland. If you look at the history of horses that have won that race at stud over the last 40 years it is one of the most important races in the world. There is about a one in four chance of the sire being top notch at stud. This horse again has a decent record but there are two negative factors. Firstly his run in stakes company was by far his worse that may have been down to the trip and the second is he has no off track experience. Although this horse ahs been running well you would like to think given his profile that there will be a few to good for him in this field. That may sound harsh but this is a classic trial and he does not really strike me as a classic winner in the making.
URKO’S TWINS (KY) HENNY HUGHES x RED RANSOM x SADLER’S WELLS
This horse fails the pedigree test. It is hard to make out a case for Henny Hughes as a turf sire the fact he appeared to have no yearlings sell in Europe last year tells its own story. In fact he should be rated considerably below all the sires I have mentioned above as a turf sire. The fact two of those have sired real grade 1 winners (the ones with horse 3yo or above) proves that point. That being said this horse is of great interest in this race a mile is the horses best trip. He has run and won on an off track which is a massive positive factor as well. He appears to be on an upward form curve as well. All things being equal this horse has to have a decent shot in this race.
SENSE OF ADVENTURE (ENG) GREEN DESERT x SHARPEN UP (GB) x LE FABULEUX
This horses sire like Kingmambo will only be covering a couple of mares should he really be allowed to service a full book of mares in the sim. It is a question worth asking. This horse has a turf pedigree mind there would have to be serious stamina doubts given his sires record as a source for speed and being by another sprint sire in Sharpen Up. That being said this horse does seem to stay a mile. He has won on an off track again a massive positive in this race. The negative are the two graded runs which have been poor to say the least. This race is not that strong and he has to have place claims based on his ability to handle the off track.
SHAKEASTICKAT (KY) SHAKESPEARE x NOT FOR LOVE x A.P. INDY
This horse has a no real reason to be any good on turf in fact he is a turf skid on breeding. At least for European or Australian horse racing. The sires sales record for foals last year was horrible and he already looks like he needs a massive downgrade even based on the ability he should have been given not the overhyped ability he has been given. He is far and away inferior to all the sires listed above in fact Tweenhills stood a sire called Fraam who would have to have been rated far superior to this horse. This horse has a decent record and is competitive in graded turf races which is a massive plus. His only off track run was a forth in a graded race. If we look at the level of form in this field and his ability overall he still has to have a decent shot at making the frame.
SEATTLE CHANNEL (KY) ENGLISH CHANNEL x SEATTLE SLEW x ROBIN DES BOIS
There is little to say about English Channel except he does not appear to hold good prospects as a stallion. Seattle Slew is one of those horses that needs a massive down grade n the sim. His record as a dam sire is simply silly based against real life. He has 66 graded winners as a dam sire in his last four crops before 2010 this will of course grow. This against 20 in those four years in real life that does not even reflect horse that have won in more than one year. He needs a rating reduction of at least 50% to bring his ability in line with reality as a dam sire. This is a good horse that on a firm course would have a great chance in here. This is where the problem lies he is a lot worse on an off track and appears to be a better sprinter as well. He could make the frame but a win looks unlikely.
BITTER LONHRO (AUS) LONHRO (AUS) x LEMON DROP KID x UNBRIDLED
This horse’s dam sire Lemon Drop Kid is a horse I have been waiting for ages to see in a pedigree of a race I have been covering. Since 2006 he has had the record of 3-4-4-6 graded winners in the year. If you look at his sim record it is much worse. His problem maybe he has sired no superstars he is though a sire worthy of an upgrade in the sim one of the few US based sires you can say that about. Another positive is his horses run on dirt, turf and all weather surfaces. This horse was a good auction buy to be honest. He has improved for the new stable and runs well on an off track which given the conditions is an added bonus. He appears to like the trip and although this is a big step up in class he has prospects of making the frame.
SPEYSIDE STRIDE (KY) DIVINE PARK x KINGMAMBO x GREAT ABOVE
Divine Park was a decent horse on the dirt. His sire Chester House ran in England but was a bleeder hence only came good when transferred to the USA. I would have strong reservations about this sire doing anything on the turf, he is a many miles below the class of Proclamation as a racehorse and more importantly would not have serviced the correct mares to give him a chance as a top turf sire. He could though sire some decent dirt runners that would be no surprise. This is the kind of horse that really messes up the sim stats. This horses record is ok he has won on his only start on an off track so the conditions should suit. The negative is his stakes form which is not good at all. On balance it is hard to make a solid case for this horse in this race due to the class factor.
ALCAPULCO GOLD (IRE) DYLAN THOMAS (IRE) x MINESHAFT x FAPPIANO
This horse at least passes the quality control test. On paper given his sires and dam sires record he should improve from two to three. His speed figures have. A not of caution is that his last good speed rating comes from a race where the winner has already been beaten since. The thing that seems to stand out is that this horse may well be better as a sprinter given his finishing positions in races. His class could be dragging him into the frame at this longer trip. Over sprint trips his only none top three finish on turf was in a grade 1. His off track runs suggests it is not his favoured surface either. On balance given the going this horse may struggle to hit the frame.
As for my selections
1 Urko’s Twin looks like trip and going will suit
2 Sense OF Adventure same comments as above
3 Bitter Lonhro looks an improver