Corkscrew Stakes “Derby Lock”
Hope springs eternal in the hearts and minds of 14 Sim trainers who bring their finest 3yo’s to Eastern Kentucky for the G1 Corkscrew Stakes, a “Derby Lock” event in which the winner gets a huge temporary boost in the all-important Stakes Points ratings for their horse. Here is the excellent field:
FLAME OF APOLLO, the 2009 Movieland Futurity champ, gives his best effort every time out, having only missed the board once in his 9 starts. His strong effort to be 3rd in the Florida Derby last time out has inspired trainer super8 to turn the son of Kingmambo around in just three weeks for another Derby Lock attempt, although the flashy colt might have been flattening out a bit in the stretch in that race; might need a little time to return to top form. Can’t count him out, though. He starts from the rail and is well-regarded at 6/1.
The trainer of MARTY AND ROME, drbydude, says: “Okay, I admit it; I have Derby Fever, and I got it BAD! I’ve never been in this position before in my 12 years in the Sim.” He’s got one tough filly, a daughter of Smarty Jones who hasn’t tasted 2-turn defeat thus far in her short career. She gets her toughest test yet in this, her first run against colts, and was granted just 3 weeks’ rest by his Derby-Fever-inflicted trainer. Her best speed figure shows that the 8/1 shot has at least has a puncher’s chance in here; it’s tied for the fastest of today’s field.
Also at 8/1 is OPERATION OVERLORD, a blueblooded son of Smart Strike trained by spqr13th. Thus far in the brown colt’s career, he has shown good tactical speed and the ability to put on a real show against allowance and minor-stakes crowds. However, he has finished well off the board in two of his three graded tries. Still, his solid 3rd in his last, the G3 Felipe Alou Stakes, lends hope, though he was tiring late in that one.
WONDERFUL PRAYER is in the 4-hole and goes off at 8/1. While trainer josecuervo can’t explain why his Tiz Wonderful colt regressed so badly in her last, he thinks his prayers will be answered and the colt will spring right back. His sweet 104 speed two races ago was achieved against a light field, but his 6th in the G3 The Good Cow could be better-than-looked, as he lost by just a little over three lengths in a solid field that day.
14/1 shot SHELTERED is next. The saver trainee has been in very tough fields in his last pair; his effort two back was encouraging, his last, not so much. Even should he rebound today, his speeds appear to be a little short of what will be needed to contend in this powerful field.
CITY AND COLOUR was looking like a sure bet to be a strong contender in Louisville, but then he regressed in the G3 Rebel Yell to end up out of the money for the first time since last April. Should newastin18‘s Unbridled’s Song colt find his previous form today, he’ll be tough to beat here. Of course, that’s a big “if” in this group. He goes off at 9/1.
ELITE DYLAN goes from the 7 gate at 28/1, the longest price in the field. Today is a tall order for this elitempire-trained son of Johannesburg, who has been terrorizing allowance foes at British Columbia but has failed in previos graded-stakes tests. His early-speed ability could make the pace interesting, but that’s likely about the best that can be expected today.
#8 COLIN IS KING was last seen dominating an allowance field in Connecticut just two weeks ago, and trainer dochman takes a big shot here at 21/1. Despite the beatdown he dropped on that allowance field, he’ll need to pick it up a lot in order to get in contention here, in his first stakes effort.
The lightly-raced VALENTINE ROSES goes from the 10-hole at 17/1. The son of Roses In May was going great guns until a disastrous effort in his last, the Derby Lock G1 All Saints Derby; however, he was right in the thick of things with a very strong G3 Silver Fence Derby in his previos effort. A rebound here, and the roosters04 trainee could excite the longshot players today.
THE JADE SEA closed with a tremendous rush to be 3rd in that G3 last out; the extra sixteenth could be just what the doctor ordered for this reacher-trained son of Distorted Humor. Of course, that was this colt’s only stakes try, and could be a fluke… But this 12/1 shot is very dangerous today.
In the 11th gate is SOLAR EXPEDITION, going off at 10/1. This son of Bernardini has demonstrated some class, getting close to some good ones, but hasn’t shown that big punch needed in order to get into the winner’s circle in top company.
The future was looking very bright for NIGHT OF DEMONS after his strong 2nd-place finish in the Movieland Futurity capped a solid 2yo year for pincay‘s Big Brown colt, but things haven’t followed the script since. After a couple months off, he ran a decent 5th in an Equinics race, but his two tries since then have been disastrous. A lot of improvement is needed in order to see a high finish today. 8/1 seems a bit low.
DEHERE PEAS BAD looks for his third graded-stakes win, and it’s no mystery how this guy’s gonna go about it. The peeps9 trainee will be gunning for the lead early, and trying to hold on late. Against this level of competition, the son of Dehere has had more success at slightly shorter distances. However, there is a good chance this guy could get a long, comfortable lead that would be hard for anyone to make up.
HELLHOUND surprised with a 3rd-place run in the G1 Sand Castle Derby last month at 22/1. Before that, the Big Brown colt looked more like he was headed toward a career of small-stakes and allowance runs; his one graded-stakes try had been pretty poor, but against a strong field. This one could be good enough to pull a 14/1 surprise.
Fearless progonstication time…
Win: I have to let you readers in on a little “secret”; #2 MARTY AND ROME is my filly, and if you think I’m gonna pick anyone to beat her, try again 🙂
Place: THE JADE SEA chases my filly down the stretch to get the 2nd prize.
Show: DEHERE PEAS BAD holds off the rest and grabs third.