The Wooden Indian Lock Race
Wooden Indian Derby Lock
1 11-1 ARTHURS- Deputy Hero(IRE) homebred 3yo colt
Strategic prince x H-rated Deputy Art (Deputy Minister x Sea Hero)
8-3-0-2 700K career earnings
Arthurs (9.3%- 34.1%) shows up in New York this week with a nice three year old that looks like he might just be on the improve. He is a grade I winner, but that was at six furlongs back in December. He is lightly raced in routes with only one previous start, but that was an impressive race indeed. His last start was the Grade I All Saints at 8.5 furlongs. His speed figure that race was a very nice 101, a jump of seven off of his previous best. He sure looks like he might relish a bit more distance, and his pedigree certainly says he can go however long he needs to. In a race without much in the way of speed, it would not shock me to see this guy up front. He has shown some speed in previous starts, and in a long race devoid of speed, he has the most. The one downside to this plan is he has yet to wire a field and I am not sure he can this week either. He probably can get the lead, but he probably can not hang on either. I expect a nice effort from this guy, but I am not sure it will be quite enough.
Best speed-101
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- On the lead or just off, has shown speed in the past
Predicted finish- 5th, will have a shot at the end to hang on
2 8-1SIMSTERS7- Left of reason(KY) homebred 3yo colt
Curlin x E-rated Last Rights (Green Desert x Riverman)
5-4-1-0 225K career earnings
Simster7 (22.1%- 49.5) Brings a son of two time horse of the year Curlin to the Big A for a ticket to the Derby this year. This guy got a bit of a late start in his career, making his first start only last October. He has however made up a ton of lost time with four wins in five starts, and missing a perfect five for five by only two closing lengths. His last start in the Grade I All Saints was a monster performance and stamped him as a true Derby contender. He was in 11th place, nine back at the second call and started a strong move that picked up seven lengths on a very good horse. The extra half a furlong is going to do nothing but help and should be right in his wheel house. I would expect to see him way back early and make one strong run. He certainly has no distance limitations with Curlin over a Green Desert mare with Riverman on the end. Not only does he like the dirt, but the pedigree says he might like the turf also. To run that big of a race in his first graded attempt makes this guy the horse to beat.
Best speed-103
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- Deep closer, will not be close early
Predicted finish- 1st, look to see him move up again.
3 7-1 SNOWCLAN- Curling(KY) homebred 3yo colt
Curlin x F-rated Smelling into Cat (Storm Cat x Housebuster)
10-4-1-1 1.6 million career earnings
Snowclan (12.1%- 37.9%) is in New York this week with 2009 Breeder’s Bowl juvenile winner. This guy has already had a very nice career with over 1.6 million in earnings, but has a very tough task this week. I would expect to see him on the engine early and get the lead. He has shown the ability to wire fields, even in BB last year. To win he needs to get away with an uncontested lead and try to hang on, but that will be a big job with all of the quality closer that have shipped in this week. One this that does set off some alarms though is his pedigree. This looks like a horse that might have some distance limitations. At first glance he looks like a distance horse, but let us look a little deeper. The Smart Strike line is certainly a stamina line, and there is no issue here, but the bottom half of the pedigree is anything but stamina. Storm Cat are generally milers and sprinters, but can throw classic horses, but that is more the exception than the rule. Housebuster is the real problem. This is a horse that threw sprinters, and as a DS, he is throwing 66% sprinters. All of this adds up to a horse that may not get the ten furlongs in the Derby.
Best speed- 100
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- Should be on the lead
Predicted finish- 4th, should get the lead, but I think he gets run down.
4 10-1 APPOWER- Making Bank(KY) homebred 3yo colt
Street Sense x F-rated Ms Kitty (Forty Niner x Deputy Minister)
8-1-5-0 682K career earnings
Appower (14.3%- 43.7%) has a very nice hose this week out of the third crop sire Street Sense. After just missing with a second place in the Breeder’s Bowl last year this colt looks like he is rounding into great form right now. This will be his fifth grade one start in a row, and while the last two races do not look good on paper, they are decent after a closer look. In his last two races he was closing on the leaders and making up chunks of ground but ran out of race track. The nine furlongs in this one might be just what the trainer ordered to get him over the top and get his first graded score. His speed figures will not blow anyone out of the water, but he is always in the race and should be moving late again this week. Not sure if he can win, but I do think he can get by some tired horses late and have a say in the final outcome. One of the deeper closers, but can hang a little closer every now and then, and that might be what is called for this week. He needs to get first jump on the closers and a slightly closer to the front trip could be the ticket to Kentucky.
Best speed- 100
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- Deep closer. But not the deepest
Predicted finish- 3rd, expect him to be moving at the end.
5 37-1 FLURGEN3- Smelling Sweet(KY) homebred 3yo colt
Empire Maker x D-rated Tete Astaroth (Dieses x Secretariat)
8-3-1-0 84K career earnings
Flurgen (12%- 33.1%) has a monster long shot this week, and is hoping to shock the world and punch his ticket to the Derby in the same race. This son of Empire Maker looks like he is improving right now with his career best speed fire in his last race at nine furlongs. This was a jump of 8 off of a previous best speed figure. He is going to have to make another mammoth improvement this week to have a shot however. This will be his first graded stakes race, heck it will be his first stakes race. This is probably a bit much for this colt at this stage of his career, and I sure hope it doesn’t knock him out for a while which can happen in the Sim when horses are put in way over their head. A jump from a conditioned allowance race to a Grade I Derby lock race might be the biggest jump in the Sim. I suppose he has a puncher’s chance, but I am having a hard time seeing how this could end well. Hard to say where this guy will be sitting, but I would suspect that he might be pretty far back early, and not by choice.
Best speed- 91
Best speed at distance- 91
Race trip- Looks to be a deep closer
Predicted finish- Out of the top 5, too much too soon for this one
6 12-1 CON10DER3- Zabeel Contender(NZ) homebred 3yo colt
Zabeel x E-rated Tycoon Contender (Last Tycoon x Nodouble
14-4-4-0 146K career earnings
Con10der3 (10%- 25.5%) brings in a New Zealand bred this week for a shot. This will be his third graded stakes attempt with ok results in the pervious two. He won his last race with a career best speed figure of 96 in an open allowance at eight furlongs. In the last race he was way way out of it early being ten off of the pace at the second call and came flying from the clouds to win by one and a half. His career best speed figure of 96 puts him towards the bottom of this group. I am not sure that he is the best closer, and if he runs that same race he might be 20 back at the same point with the increased speed of a Grade I. The fact id that he has not performed well in stakes races against much softer and there are some monsters in this race. If he runs a perfect race, he might have a shot at the top five, but I don’t see a scenario where he can win.
Best speed- 96
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- Deepest of the deep closers
Predicted finish- Out of the top 5, not sure he has the class for this group
7 9-1 FUTURESTAR- Moldavia(KY) homebred 3yo filly
Ghostzapper x A-rated Dangerous Reward (Kingmambo x Storm Cat)
7-4-3-0 587K career earnings
Futurestar(30.7%-64.4%) has brought a very talented filly to take on the boys. To get in the Derby she would probably need a win this week, and that would be the reason to take a chance with a filly here. She has been in four previous graded stakes races with two firsts and two seconds, but she has yet to take on the boys. She has shown speed in her previous stars, although I would expect to see her stalking , but there is a slight chance she could find herself out front. Consistency has been her calling card with no finishes out of the top two in her young career. The dam of this one is a graded stakes producing machine, and she is carrying on that tradition for sure. If this was a race to get into the Oaks I would think she would be a lock, but girls verse the boys at this point in the year in routes is a very tall order. The distance is not a problem as she has won at nine furlongs before and looks like she can go even longer. Her last start was at this week’s distance of nine furlongs and she won pretty easy in a Grade II, but against the girls. She is a very talented filly, but I think she might not have quite enough to beat the boys.
Best speed- 103
Best speed at distance- 103
Race trip- Up front, should be stalking early pace.
Predicted finish- 2nd, not quite enough to beat the boys
8 7-1 WAREMBLEM6- Steel Inferno(KY) scratch homebred 3yo colt
Kingmambo x Deputy Minister x Alydar
6-4-1-0 254K career earnings
Waremblem6 (14.3%- 43.9%) has a nice three year old that is coming off of a monstrous performance in the Grade III Gary Asher. He blasted the field away with a wire to wire performance running a career best speed figure of 107. That however might be bad news for this week. I find it hard to believe that we are not going to see a bounce this week. When you see a horse run a career best that is 10% higher you really have to expect a drop off their next start. This guy is the speed of the race and I do expect him to get the lead, but he might have to battle for it a bit, and could be a little cooked late. He has not run nine furlongs yet, but his races at 8.5 furlongs and his pedigree suggest that nine will not be a problem. He has raced in only one graded stakes race, but that was a wining performance. If he can avoid the bounce, he has a shot, but I think we are going to see the dreaded bounce. Especially on only four weeks rest.
Best speed- 107
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- Speed of the speed, should be out front
Predicted finish- Out of top 5, if he doesn’t bounce he wins though
9 6-1 GRAYWOLF19- Relax Storm(CZE) homebred 3yo colt
Relaxed Gesture x G-rated Our Families (Storm Cat x Key to the Kingdom)
15-3-2-1 241K career earnings
Graywolf19 (12.8%- 35.4%) has a CZE bred in New York this week…. A what!?!? Moving on. This guy has ten graded stakes starts in his young career, which is more than most three year olds have total starts. Of the graded starts he only has one win to show for it. He ran his career best 100 speed figure two back in the All Saints. The fact is that this guy will have run three Derby lock races in a month does not bode well for his future production. He generally is a deep closer, but has had difficulty finishing the job against grade one company. He can also sit relatively close, and that might be a in his best interests this week. In his last race he made a nice move to get within a half a length at the top of the stretch, but faded to lose by two. In his last few starts that has been the theme. Make a run then flatten out late. Certainly has a shot this week, but I am always a little leery of a horse that had eleven starts as a two year old.
Best speed- 100
Best speed at distance- 96
Race trip- Deep closer
Predicted finish- Out of top five, too many races and it will take its toll
10 9-1 ZANTHULUS- Elusive Crown(AUS) scratch homebred 3yo colt
Elusive Quality x Chief’s Crown x Relaunch
7-2-1-2 117K career earnings
Zanthulus (8.7%- 30.4%) adds to the international flavor of the Wooden with an Australian bred. This colt will be making his fourth graded start with a second place finish in the Legoland as his best race. His last race was in the All Saints where he finished a flat seventh place. So one must ask, if he can be five lengths better since many of the same horses are this week also. His pedigree looks like he might want a trip on the turf with very strong turf sires on both the top and bottom of the pedigree. Distance should be no problem as he has had no problem at 8.5f. he is a closer, but not of the deep variety and should be sitting somewhere between the deep closers and the early pace. His best race was probably back in October of last year where he won the Chamberlain Stakes at 8.5 furlongs by a widening four lengths. His start two back in the Grade III Legoland was also a nice race as he just missed with a second place finish. This quality horse might be even better on turf.
Best speed- 100
Best speed at distance- 98
Race trip- Mid pack closer, shouldn’t be too far back
Predicted finish- Out of top five, has lost to most of these horses recently.
11 9-1 BINZASTC- Sisson’s Whiskers(KY) homebred 3yo colt
Flower Alley x G-rated Adam’s Cat (Storm Cat x Raise a Native)
10-4-2-2 467K career earnings
Binzastc (12.7%- 33.3%) brings a multiple graded stakes winning colt this week to try and stamp his ticket to Kentucky. This guy has been brought along slowly and his future looks really good no matter the out come. The real question is what to do with his last start. He was crushed in the Grade I All Saints by ten finishing 12th of 14. Was that race an aberration or indicative of what is to come with basically the same group of horses? I don’t have a really good answer other than he has won a Grade one before and that race was so bad it might just be a throw out. The race before he was very good winning the Grade III Good Cow with a nice 99 speed figure which was a career best. I think that he might be sitting on a big race coming off of that clunker last out and could surprise this week. If he is running his race I would see him sitting mid pack, but if he gets too far back forget it, he will call it a day. I think he will run a much better race than his last out, but I don’t think that will quite be enough anyways.
Best speed- 99
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- Mid pack closer, if he is way out of it he gets crushed
Predicted finish- Out of top 5, hated that last race.
12 9-1 PJLSTABLES- Supervise(IRE) homebred 3yo colt
Generous x C-rated Pedro’s Pick (Kurofune x Unfuwain)
6-2-3-0 110K career earnings
Pjlstables (19%- 48.5%) has a nice son of Generous this week to take on some of the Sim’s best three year olds. This lightly raced guy will be making his third graded start of his young career, but looks like he is ready for this. His last race was a very impressive second place in the Grade III Gary Asher posting a career best 105 speed figure. He might have that nasty little bounce problem to deal with as the 105 was his best by a whole bunch. His first graded start was way back in his second career start and has very little relevance in this week’s race. This guy has shown a little early speed on occasion, and with the lack of speed in this race I would expect to see him forwardly placed. His pedigree looks like he will continue to get better as the races get longer, and there is enough turf that a run on it at some point would be warranted.
Best speed- 105
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- stalking trip within three early
Predicted finish- Out of top, a repeat of his last race certainly puts him the mix though
13 9-1 SIRKILROY- Last of the Gold(KY) homebred 3yo colt
A.P. Indy x C-Rated heather Prospector (Mr. Prospector x Roberto)
8-5-1-1 179K career earnings
Sirkilroy (18.6%- 45.5%) has a regally bred colt in New York this week, and another horse that might like a trip on the turf. This guy was on a nice little four race winning streak until the Gary Asher last out where he ran a decent fourth place in what is looking like a key race. He did however post a career best speed figure of 100. While he was clearly beaten he did close a ton of ground moving from 10th to fourth making up six lengths. So it was a loss, but it was not a bad loss and one can sure wonder if the extra half furlong will move him up again this week. I think it can. This guy was a stalker early in his career, but has become more of a closer as of late and that is the trip I think we will see this week. This is the same thing we have seen in a few other horses though. He is coming off of a career best speed figure and will need to improve on that at least another 4-7, and that would be a tough thing to do. He could very well be sitting last or close to it this week early and might need to make up 15, and that might be a bit too much, but I still like what lies ahead.
Best speed- 100
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- deep closer, will be nowhere near the front early
Predicted finish- Out of top 5, has an outside shot
14 45-1 SUPER23- Super Invader(KY) homebred 3yo colt
Invasor x D-rated Gimme Vince Young (Ghostzapper x A.P. Indy)
10-2-2-2 93K career earnings
Super23 (13.2%- 44.3%) has the longest shot on the board, and there is a good reason. This will be his sixth career graded start, but the last four graded races have been unmitigated disasters, beating only ten horses and losing by a combined 51 lengths. Not sure why he is here, but alas he is. His career best speed of 85, and his best at this distance of 74 simply will not get it done. He is regally bred and his pedigree screams stamina, but he has not shown that he can run with elite horse yet. His best race was back in September of last year where he finished a closing second in the Grade III Daling-Squash. He ran a 85 speed figure which is a nice number for a two year old. The problem is he simply has not improved since then. That 85 is still a career best and he looks stuck at that same level perhaps even slightly worse. This race looks to be too much for this guy at this stage in his career.
Best speed- 85
Best speed at distance- 74
Race trip- Deep closer, but I don’t think he will be closing on anyone
Predicted finish- Out of top 5, not much of a shot
–