Sand Castle Golden Sprint

Sand Castle Golden Sprint

1 7-1 SPARADISE-  Stairwaytoparadice(KY) homebred 6yo horse

Pine Bluff x G-rated Senorita Paradise (Dynaformer x Tom Rolfe)

33-10-8-5  1.8 million career earnings

            Sparadise (11.2%- 31.1%) shows up this week with an accomplished consistent veteran that will certainly have a say in the outcome.  He has won two Grade I races in his last three tries with the last being the wicked tough Equinics sprint.  Overall he now has four graded wins form 14 trips with graded company, most of which were Grade I’s.  Unusual for this group, he took a while to break his maiden, nine races to be exact, and was a pretty darn ordinary after that running mostly at around a mile.  Then he dropped in distance and started reeling off wins with regularity.  Not one to duck anybody, this guy has been racing against the best for a long time now and always holds his own.  He is pretty versatile in that he can stalk or take the front if he is given the lead.  I would expect him to be near the front, but not on the front early.  I am worried about a bounce this week.  He fired huge last time out and I would expect that to have taken some starch out of him this week.  As good as this guy is he still needs an A performance to beat this nasty tough group.  

Best speed-114                                                                            

Best speed at distance- 114

Race trip- Stalker, should be close, don’t think he wants or can get the lead

Predicted finish- 5^th, hard to imagine following up with the same performance of last race

2 10-1MUNINN240- Golden Silk(KY) homebred 4yo colt

A.P. Indy x B-rated he-mare Fernando Storm (Storm Cat x Seeking The Gold)

17-8-2-3 369K career earnings

Muninn240 (19.8%- 46%) sends out this regally bred young one to take a shot at some of the sprinting masters of the Sim.  One thing to take notice of is his rapid improvement in the last eight months.  This guy was a good three year old, not great, but in the last part of his three year old season and the early part of his four year old campaign sure make one think he is gonna be a good one for sure.  Can he win this week, I suppose, but will he?  I don’t think so.  He won his last graded attempt at this distance, but it was a Grade II, and much softer than what he will see this week.  I do think he can run with this group and should be around for a good finish.  Six furlongs may not be his best distance, as it looks like he might like 6.5 or seven just a touch more, but he can run well at this distance none the less.  Expect him to be forwardly placed early, but I don’t think he has enough true speed to get the lead.  Another thing that might be a thing to try is, when you look at his past running lines, he sure looks a horse that might LOVE a mile. 

Best speed-115

Best speed at distance- 110

Race trip- Up front early, but surprised if on the lead

Predicted finish- 4^th, can run with this group, but think he wants to go a tad further.

3 11-1 GRRM- Lannister Gold(KY) scratch homebred 6yo horse

Forestry x Seeking the Gold x Danzig

39-13-14-3  3.5 million career earnings

Grrm (24.7%- 55.6%) brings ships in a grizzled veteran that is a bit off in form right now.  His last two attempts have been in conditioned allowance races withy only a second and third place to show for it.  That may not be so troubling except for the very pedestrian 99 and 101 speed figures.  All of that might not be so bad id this was a horse making its 20^th start, and not its 40^th.  As good as this horse is/was there are just so few signs that he can fire big this week that I am having a hard time finding a way he can win.  This is a quality trainer however and if there is a way he can find it.  I would expect to this one about 7 back early and make a big move if he decides to run.  This horse may have some running left in him, or he may be headed to the he-mare way of life, and I would guess that the outcome of this race will have a lot to say about that decision.  One win in the last 11 months simply is not good enough for this guy.    

Best speed- 116

Best speed at distance- 116

Race trip- closer, will be pretty far back early

Predicted finish- Out of the top 5, needs to find the form of 2009 to be even competitive

4 10-1 TIGERMAN- Fourth and Forever(MD) homebred 5yo horse

Waquoit x G-rated North Dallas Forty (Kingmambo x Northern Dancer)

32-8-10-4  560K career earnings

Tigerman (17%- 42.3%) gets off of the plane this week with a Maryland bred no less.  Fourth and Forever will be making his tenth graded start of his career with no wins as of yet, but has been so close so many times.  He has five second place finishes in graded stakes, but just has not been quite able to close the deal.  Asking him to do that with this crowd is a tall order indeed, but he is showing decent form.  His last four races have been Grade III’s and he does have two second place finishes to show for it.  Unfortunately his seconditis (or worse) has persisted for quite some time with his last win coming way back in August of last year.  This is a horse that likes to mix it up front early, and does his best running on the lead or at the neck of the leader.  He did not get there last race and his final result showed it.  If he is not within one of the leader early forget it, the race is over for him    

Best speed- 112

Best speed at distance- 111

Race trip- stalking at the neck of whoever is out front

Predicted finish- Out of top 5, been competitive in GIII’s, but this much much tougher spot

5 10-1 WFSTABLES6- Highside(IRE)  scratch homebred 5yo horse

Giant’s Causeway x Unbridled x Secretariat

26-6-6-2  472K career earnings

Wfstables6 (13.2%- 38.8%) comes to Dubai all the way from the left coast.  We have a pretty lightly raced five year old sporting only 26 career starts, six of which were with graded company.  He has yet to get a graded win, but he came close back in December, finishing second beaten only ¾ of a length.  He seems to like seven furlongs a bit more, but one that same line he has run an eye popping 115 speed figure at six furlongs in a GI.  Any horse that has run a race like that can certainly win at this level, but his form is not great right now, and this looks like it might be a bit too much.  I would like his chances a whole lot better if we had an off track as he has run great in both trips in the goo.  I really hate his last race.  The 97 speed figure was not good and he showed no speed at seven furlongs, he needs to be much sharper this week to be competitive.      

Best speed- 115

Best speed at distance- 115

Race trip- On the engine early, could be on the lead if he fires

Predicted finish- Out of top 5, back class says he can win, but current form says he can’t.

6 14-1 WAREMBLEM5- Superman(KY) scratch homebred 6yo horse

Storm Cat x Mr. Prospector x Sharpen Up

38-12-4-9  2.2 million career earnings

Waremblem5 (13.4%- 42.2%) brings just another multiple stakes winning sprinter to Dubai this week, surprise surprise.  This field is scary good and he should be in the mix at the end.  This well traveled six year old will be making his 12^th graded start of his very successful career.  He competed in this same race last year and ran a very nice third and it would not surprise me to see him in at the end again this year.  This is the 2009 Breeder’s sprint champion, so he can win the big races.  His last race out he ran a very nice third in the Equinics, and a third in that sick field is very impressive.  This guy might have the speed of the speed, and I would not be shocked to see him on the engine early and assume command.  This is kind of a good news, bad news thing however.  When he gets the lead, he is pretty much a lock for the top three, but tends to tire late and get caught.  His best finishes seem to come when he is just off the pace, but he certainly can win from the front, but I like his chances better if he is stalking a hot pace.          

Best speed- 116

Best speed at distance- 116

Race trip- on the engine, gunning for the lead

Predicted finish- 3^rd, I see him out front but just getting caught…SHADOWS>>>>(TVG Reference)

7 13-1 SUPER1- Procedure(KY) scratch homebred 5yo horse

Fusaichi Pegasus x Danzig x Damascus

31-12-2-4  1.6 million career earnings

Super1 (17.4%- 42.6%) is here this week with a bit of a longshot.  Four months ago I would be talking about how big a shot this guy has in a race like this, but that was three clunkers ago.  His last three outings are starting to look like a horse that needs an extensive freshening, class relief, or a trip to the he-mare barn.  His form is simply horrible right now.  He won a GI back in December of last year and since then has been no factor in any of the three races while not topping a 102 speed figure.  That simply will not get it done this week.  He is coming right back off only three weeks rest, and that is another factor that does not bode well.  He has taken a lot of punches in his career with this being his 17^th graded stakes start, and there may simply not be a lot of tread on the tires.  HOWEVER, he can run big races, and all it takes is for him to fire one week for a shocker.  I do not think that six furlongs is his ideal distance as seven looks like his preferred trip.  I would expect him to be in the top five or six early on within three lengths if he fires, but if he doesn’t, he will be nowhere near the front early. 

Best speed- 116

Best speed at distance- 113

Race trip- Stalker, but not right up on the leader

Predicted finish- Out of top, no confidence after three clunkers

8 11-1 CONNOR1- Prado’s Choice(AUS) scratch homebred 4yo colt

Redoute’s Choice x El Prado x Ninjinsky II

17-8-1-3  713K career earnings

Connor1 (13.6%- 40.4%) gets off of the plane this week with a very nice four year old searching for his first graded stakes with against older horses.  Some horses make a seamless transition from their three year old season to racing against older horses, but this guy is struggling a little bit.  As a two year old he raced on the turf for his five starts with limited success, but saw a dramatic jump in speed figures on the move to dirt and has been there ever since.  From December of 2008 to July of 2009 this guy won an amazing six consecutive races with the last two being of the graded variety.  That certainly was the high water mark of his still young career, but he has not enjoyed the same success since that tremendous feat.  He did have a very nice third place finish in last year’s Breeder’s Bowl which shows he certainly has a shot this week.  The race does set up nice for him this week with the abundance of early speed there should be a hot pace for his closing style to run at.  I think he is just a notch below the best in this race, but I also think he might get better as the season progresses.          

Best speed- 112

Best speed at distance- 112

Race trip- Closer, should be running late

Predicted finish- Out of top five, not Earth shattering if he is close at the end though.

9 12-1 LANDLUBBER- Creepy Cat(KY) homebred 4yo colt

Storm Cat x D-rated She’s Perfect (Pleasantly Perfect x A.P. Indy)

9-5-2-1  396K career earnings

Landlubber (16%- 40.5%) is bringing a very lightly raced four year old that looks ready to fire a big race.  Coming off of a very impressive second place finish in the Equinics sprint in only his ninth start, this guy has stamped himself as a possible super star.  To do that at this stage of his career in a 19 horse field is impressive indeed.  He has yet to race at six furlongs, but a 113 at six and a half tells me that should not be a problem, and he has some real speed that the other speed balls are going to have to deal with.  I suspect that while he can win off the front a better trip for him this week will to sit a bit further back and make a big move.  He was wiring softer fields last year, but I do not think he can pull that off against this group.  May or may not win, but will have a say in who does.        

Best speed- 113

Best speed at distance- N/A

Race trip- Can close all the way to lead, but I think we see a closer this week

Predicted finish-1st, pretty hard for me not to pick this guy as the winner.  12-1 is a steal

10 11-1 ESAGIN- Talkin’ Baseball(KY) scratch homebred 4yo colt

Grand Slam x Clever Trick x Private Account

20-9-2-1  1.6 million career earnings

Esagin (10.3%- 33.6%) shows up in the desert with another of the four year old crew with a huge chance.  If you look at his last race in the Equinics it may appear that he has no chance this week, but he had a lot of things going against him.  The biggest was the fact that he was coming off a career best 116 speed figure.  Not too many horses are not going to have a huge bounce off of a monster effort like that, and this guy was no exception.  What makes the 116 so impressive is that it followed a career best 112.  While he took a step back last race, I think that sets him up for a big effort this week.  Do not be deceived by the odds of 13-1, he will be in the mix at the end.  I would expect to see this guy gunning for the lead, and getting it if he wants it.  Frankly, he needs it, as he has yet to win a race from off the pace.  He has true speed, but getting to the front might cook this guy.  If you throw the last race out, he is in very good form, and looks like he is sitting on a monster performance.  Not sure he can hang on, but with a furlong to go, he will be the one to watch.    

Best speed- 116

Best speed at distance- 116

Race trip- On the engine, needs to be on the lead

Predicted finish- 2nd, just gets caught at the end

11 9-1 BOOKWORM- Epistle(KY) homebred 6yo horse

Ghostzapper x H-rated Post Script (Seattle Slew x Forli)

39-10-7-4  568K career earnings

Bookworm (9%- 29.6%) brings in a veteran of the sim circuit with a six year old.  The form for this guy is only so so at the moment, but is certainly capable of a big effort at any time.  The fact that this guy will be making his 40^th start tells me that the big performances are going to start happening a bit less frequently.  Following a string of very ordinary races he fired a nice 113 two back at six furlongs.  This was a nice race, but was still not enough to win a listed stakes as he finished second.  This does not bode well as I am not sure a repeat of 113 will be enough this week.  He has one graded win in ten tries, but that was a G III way back in May of 2008.  He belongs in this race, but at this stage in his career, it might be a bit much to ask of him.  I would expect to see him pretty far back, as he is one of the few deep closers in this race.  He needs to start his run a bit earlier, as his last few races he just has run out of track.  He should get a very hot pace to run at, and if he can make a big late run it would not be a shock to see him pick up the pieces if this race falls apart late. 

Best speed- 113

Best speed at distance- 113

Race trip- Deep closer, will not be close early

Predicted finish- Out of top 5, best days may have passed this guy 

12 7-1 SIMSTERS2- Agony of Defeat(KY) homebred 4yo colt

Ghostzapper x G-rated Locked Prospect (Mr. Prospector x Secretariat)

18-6-5-0  420K career earnings

Simsters2 (19.6%- 51.2%) brings another of the young guns off of the plane that is in super form.  This is a very nice horse with great bloodlines that is primed for a big run, BUT I think he likes seven furlongs just a bit more.  Of the closers this week, this is the deepest.  I would not be shocked to see him ten back early with the pace in this race.  While a super hot pace should set this guy up perfectly, six furlongs might not be enough track for his to take advantage.  He has one start only at six furlongs and was flying at the end, but that was still only good for a fourth place effort.  That was in a GI restricted race, but this week is much tougher.  I do not think much will change this week.  I suspect he will be flying at the end, but there is no cheap speed that is going to stop at the end, so I think he can’t get there.  This is a lightly raced horse that is only making his fourth graded start, and for the most part he has run well in them.  I really like this horse, and he will win some huge races in his career, but I just don’t think he is at his best at six furlongs.         

Best speed- 114

Best speed at distance- 111

Race trip- Deep closer

Predicted finish- Out of top 5, may be out of it early, if this was 7f, this would be my guy

13 15-1 DESPERADO5- All About Henny(KY) homebred 5yo horse

Henny Hughes x E-rated Backseat Driver (Grand Slam x Wild Again)

 25-11-1-5  497K career earnings

Desperado5 (23.3%- 54.5%) gets off of the plane in the desert with a five year old that is struggling to regain his form after winning the G I Binger Handicap back in August of 2009.  Since that race he has been mostly terrible.  With only 25 starts under his belt, I find it hard to believe he is finished.  He ran in an open allowance two back where he won, but only fired a 108 speed figure.  His last race is a bit of a throw out as he is not good on off tracks.  The really disturbing trend is the three Grade ones that he ran after scoring in the Binger.  In those three races he beat a total of five horses and was never at any point a factor.  Not quite sure what is wrong, but this horse is not right at the moment.  When he runs his race I would expect to see him mid-pack and make a late move, but if he gets too far out of it early, the race is over for him.  He needs to be around four back, and pounce.  His best shot is to get first jump on the deep closers and hope the race falls apart.  Backseat Driver has won two graded races, so he can run with this crowd, but Rob had better hope that what was broke is now fixed, or he will be bringing up the rear.  (Rob you gave me no choice, my truth meter came out…arrrgggg)   

Best speed- 111

Best speed at distance- 110

Race trip- mid pack closer, shouldn’t be too far back

Predicted finish- Out of top 5, form is not good right now

14 19-1 KAUFFMAC2- Wipe Me Down(KY) homebred 4yo colt

Roman Ruler x C-rated Storm off the Lake (Storm Cat x Carson City)

15-3-7-1  153K career earnings

Kauffmac2 (17.3%- 46.7%) sidles up in the 14 post to wrap up our field.  This is a lightly raced four year old making only his second graded start of his career.  His first foray with graded company was mostly an unmitigated disaster getting beat by eleven lengths.  It looks like he might be in a bit over his head again this week.  His last race was at the six furlong distance, and he did run a nice 111, but that was still only good enough for second place.  He is the deepest closer in the field and there is a good chance that he can pick off some horses late, but I am having a hard time imagining a scenario where he can get up for a win.  I would like to see this guy run some G III’s and score some measure off success before going after races like this.  Even the good ones get beat up running theses, and to throw a horse in a G I when they are not quite ready can mess them up for a while.  The other factor that is not helping this one’s case is that he race back to back career best races, and it is hard to imagine that he caps that off with a third career best, because it is going to take more than a 111 to win this week.  This is a nice horse that has a nice upside, but just don’t think that he has quite enough to win this week.         

Best speed- 111

Best speed at distance- 111

Race trip- Deepest of the deep closers

Predicted finish- Out of top 5, not quite ready for this