Sand Castle Classic
This is it. I doesn’t get any bigger than this anyway. Along with the Bluegrass Derby and the Breeders’ Bowl Classic, no race is more prestigious than Dubai’s Grade I Sandcastle Classic, a mile and a quarter for $6 million.
In its ten year history, it’s been won by Hall of Famers Stormy Prospector and Solar Song, and by likely future Hall of Famers Awesome Force and Ermington Pegasus. And its list of losers is also full of Hall of Famers. Duke Ali, New Slew, Dusty Dance, and I Seek U all failed to win in eight tries between them.
This year’s field is as strong as ever. The lowest ranked horse in the field is still number 31 in the world, and the top two rated horsed, Jeepster and Rock Hard Korn are both in the race, the latter to defend his crown as last year’s winner.
The last two editions of the race have been won at long odds, and no one here is without a legitimate shot. This is truly it.
Here is a look at the field:
PP1 ROCK HARD KORN(KY) (ROCK HARD TEN x SEATTLE SLEW x NIJINSKY II) bred and trained by korn (Qwikvett Stables, 14%) Style: P, Odds: 7-1
History has not been kind to horses trying to repeat. Stormy Prospector, Solar Song. and Ermington Pegasus all tried twice more after their Sand Castle wins and none were successful. But no one has told this five-year-old, one of four in the field named co-favorites. He gets a six-week freshening after a terrible Equinics race last time. He has a remarkable history of bouncing back from poor races, so don’t toss him because of that race. After an 11 length loss, he ran second in 2008’s Breeders’ Bowl Classic, and, even better, in his race last year, just before his winning Sand Castle race, he was a distant tenth.
PP2 DEMECO(KY) (AWESOME AGAIN x BROAD BRUSH x SECRETARIAT) bred by trifecta, trained by fatattack (LIVESTRONG Stables, 25%) Style: P, Odds: 13-1
Ran here last year and lacked a rally, finishing a distant 8th. He’s not at the top of his form cycle. He hasn’t won since last June, and in his two races this year he hasn’t topped 96 for a speed figure. Moreover no horse has won the Sand Castle off of an allowance race since 2000. So, what’s to like? Actually, his high-percentage trainer has shown he knows how to handle this horse. Demeco has only run two bad races in his career. His first was last year’s Sand Castle. He was trained to a third place finish in his next race, and then won his next two in fast times. His other poor race was the Grade I Glenn. He ran a second after that, and now this is his next race. The pattern says he should be ready for a good effort.
PP3 ALYDAR AGAIN(KY) (AWESOME AGAIN x NORTHERN BABY x ALYDAR) bred by fatattack, trained by texasace04 (Theavenger’s F’ A.R.S.E. Stables, 21%) Style: S, Odds: 7-1
The second of the 7-1 horses, he looks to be off form. He just ran around the track in his last two races, never menacing. His respect from the line maker is due to a couple impressive seconds a few races back. He was second in a DelPenn race and second in the Breeders’ Bowl Classic. A repeat of those races would make him a factor here, but a minor piece of the purse seems more likely than a win. He had three graded wins last year, but his lone Grade I win came as a two-year-old.
PP4 JEEPSTER(KY) (SEEKING THE GOLD x STORM CAT x DANZIG) bred and trained by super25 (More Evil Than The Evil Empire, 17%) Style: S, Odds: 10-1
Reigning Horse of the Year and number one ranked divisional runner is only the eighth choice out of fourteen in the morning line. That doesn’t sound right. And it isn’t. After a grueling end to an historic three-year-old season some regression was predictable. It occurred, but now it’s been four months since his Breeders’ Bowl win, and that’s about the right amount of time to recover. If he’s going to be an outstanding older horse, and repeat what he showed his sophomore season, now is the time to start showing it. It never hurts to have the jockey he has in the irons today.
PP5 HAIL THE EMPIRE(KY) (FUSAICHI PEGASUS x LYPHARD x HAIL TO REASON) bred by icbomber6, trained by simsters7 (THE EMPIRE – 100 GI WINS AND COUNTING, 22%) Style: P, Odds: 12-1
He exits two allowance races, which doesn’t fit the profile of previous Sand Castle winners. He hasn’t won a graded stakes in almost a year, and in his last three graded tries he’s finished behind five horses that he meets again today. All of that sounds bleak, but did you catch what Lenny has renamed his stables? You can never be comfortable tossing his horses in a race of this caliber.
PP6 SILVERGORE(KY) (SILVER DEPUTY x NUREYEV x CARSON CITY) bred by steelewolf, trained by bigamie (Jrogue Stables, 19%) Style: E/P, Odds: 8-1
He usually likes to run near the lead. There are a couple in here that have quicker early foot than he does, so he figures to sit in the first wave behind them. Last summer he proved he can win from just off the pace, so he is certainly eligible to do that in this field. In fact, it might be good news for him that there are a couple of quicker early ones in here. In recent races he has had a tendency to get too involved early and has faded late. He has a dangerous running style, is entirely capable of winning this, and is likely to be overlooked by bettors.
PP7 DISTORTED STORM(KY) (DISTORTED HUMOR x STORM CAT x MILL REEF) bred and trained by latinlover (Latinlover Stables, 23%) Style: S, Odds: 13-1
Dangerous longshot edged out Jeepster for show in the Bluegrass and now is 1-0-2 in four Grade I races. His lone bad race was two back in the Grade I Toilet Scrubbers. In the preview for that race published in the BTB, some god-awful handicapper picked him to win. Whether that is the reason for the colt’s failure to fire is up for debate. He did bounce back, however, to defeat a pretty tough field in an overnight last time and run his record up to 11 wins in only 16 lifetime starts. Doubters will note that eight of those wins came in allowance company, often against small fields. His last graded win was almost a year ago. Does he still have the class at four-years-old that he had in the middle of his three-year-old campaign? If he does, the 13-1 odds are a bargain.
PP8 OL SUKIE JONES(KY) (EMPIRE MAKER x HALO x DEPUTY MINISTER) bred and trained by sdmfstc (Black Label Stables, 22%) Style: S, Odds: 16-1
In September Ol Sukie beat Bluegrass Derby winner Hot and Spicy to win the Grade I Their Law, but his other Grade I tries are not encouraging. He hasn’t finished within 12 lengths of the winner. In his last six races, he’s displayed an alternating good-race bad-race pattern. We can’t tell if that’s a running pattern or the fact that the bad races have been in Grade I races. Either way, it’s not good news for today. On the bright side he has twice before put together back-to-back wins, so his connections hope he can do it again.
PP9 SCREAMING FOR(KY) (BERNARDINI x FORTY NINER x NIJINSKY II) bred by foxon3, trained by 4gone (Shamrock Stables, 13%) Style: E, Odds: 9-1
All seven of his lifetime wins have been wire to wire. He clearly needs the early lead, and even a clear early lead hasn’t been enough lately. He’s been having a hard time holding late leads, and there is some very serious early speed in a few of the gates just to his outside, so even getting that lead might be a problem. Just who has the best early speed is tough to judge sometimes. His best race was last September’s Grade I Woodward, where he beat Alydar Again and Robust at odds and conditions similar to today’s. He’s a sentimental favorite since being picked up in a $4000 maiden claiming race, and he’s been expertly handled to bring him to his current number nine ranking.
PP10 SISSON’S DE CRAFTY(AUS) (ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS) x CRAFTY PROSPECTOR x LEE DAVID) bred and trained by patriots (Binzaman Stables, 10%) Style: E, Odds: 11-1
A winner of half of his races, he’s always at or near the front. What’s impressive is how often he wins despite getting caught up in battles. Like most front-runners he’ll fade late from time to time, as he did last time in an allowance race, but we like that he looks classier at four than he was a three. In his lone graded three-year-old try he ran like he didn’t have a clue. He’s tried two more graded races since the beginning of the year and won the Grade I Glenn, over 20 lengths in front of Demeco and Robust. This is a tougher field than he faced in the Glenn, but it’s good to see he can handle the class level. Jockey is off to a poor 2010 start.
PP11 ROBUST(IRE) (HIGH CHAPARRAL (IRE) x PEINTRE CELEBRE (IRE) x HOIST THE FLAG) bred by cobrakai, trained by pilgrim5 (Pilgrim Stables, 9%) Style: S, Odds: 36-1
The maker of the morning line pays a lot of attention to the last speed figure, and when this horse was distanced last time, it easily tripled his odds for today. The good news is that he’s recovered from bad races before. After losing by 20 lengths, he came back the next time to finish second in the Bob Woodward last summer. After losing a residency race by double digits, he came back the next time to win a Grade III race. It needs to be said that even without the odds’ inflation due to the terrible race last time, he would still be one of the longer shots in the race. His good races are spread out and tend to be slower than what the main contenders here run.
PP12 SILVER STAR ROAD(KY) (SILVER TRAIN x ALYDAR x ROBERTO) bred and trained by onyourmark (Onyourmark Stables, 8%) Style: S, Odds: 9-1
He finished second in this race a year ago, and while his odds are similar to last year’s, his form is not. Last year he came in off a 117 speed figure earned in a second in the Grade I Cal ‘Cap. This year he comes in off a double-digit loss in an overnight. (An overnight with a field stronger than many graded stakes, it must be noted.) He’s been a serious closer with a great career, but he hasn’t seriously closed since August. After 31 races he appears to be in decline. Meanwhile, he’s been by far the best Silver Train in the Sim.
PP13 SYMONDITE(KY) (KINGMAMBO x STORM CAT x HABITAT) bred and trained by upgrade (Tulloch Stables, 14%) Style: E, Odds: 7-1
The third of the four co-favorites, this veteran is still a bit of a newcomer at the class level. He tried a graded stakes 18 months ago and faded badly late. He tried again last October with the same result. Third try was a charm when he entered the Equinics and easily wired a field that contained Rock Hard Korn, Screaming For, and Alydar Again. A repeat of that performance looks formidable. The Equinincs this year were notorious for upsets and for races that did not run to form. (That’s my way of saying I couldn’t pick very many winners.) The jury is out on how those winners go in their subsequent races. Speed of the speed?
PP14 THIS CALLING(IRE) (SADLER’S WELLS x ALYDAR x BUCKPASSER) bred and trained by arse2007 (Black Label Stables, 18%) Style: S, Odds: 7-1
Beat Silvergore and Jeepster in a quick Grade I win last time. That was his first ever graded win and it came in his 34th start. That doesn’t happen often. Even when he doesn’t win, he makes his connections happy. He’s picked up a check in every race over the past year. Do they bounce in the Sim? If you think they do, he’s a prime candidate. If not, notice he has the best last-out speed figure. Obvious contender despite tough post and struggling jockey.
Summary. I remember when I used to occasionally correctly predict winners in these articles. You younger players may have to ask your grandparents about that. Lately my picks seem to be jinks, and I hate to do that to the trainers here, so I won’t make a prediction. (Just kidding. You read it here first: Symondyte/Jeepster/Rock Hard Korn.)