Plenty of Chances in Shawnee River

A full field of fourteen fillies and mares has accepted for this week’s Florida feature, The Shawnee River Handicap, a Grade 3 event. To be conducted on a firm turf track, the eight and a half furlong contest carries a purse of $100,000. An even field lines up, as we see in the market. The favorite, Please Move Over, is 9/2 in pre-race betting, closely followed by Balalaika and The Witching Hour at 5/1. Five runners are likely to start at single figure odds, while four outsiders are ranked in the 20/1 zone, indicating that, even if their winning chances may be slim, they are still very capable racehorses. The rank outsider, Oro Blanco, is a far better horse than her price would indicate.

Looking through the field in barrier order:

# 1 – Please Move Over – (Pleasantly Perfect / Pivotal / Graustark) – Weller3 –

The bookmakers have placed her on top this week, and if ever a horse is overdue for a Graded win, this one is. Three seconds in quality Graded events, from her last four outings, must have connections cursing what can only be described as bad luck. In October and November last year, she finished runner up in both the G1-The Last Woman, and the G1-The Empire Rose. She did the same thing once again last start in the G2-Remember Stakes, yet again flying home and passing all but the winner. Perhaps a slight concern in that she drops back half a furlong here, given that she’s running on as if she may want even more ground, but she’s the deserving favorite, and the one they have to beat. The perfect barrier will allow her to settle back on the fence, before charging late.

# 2 – Balalaika – (Soviet Star / Victory Gallop / Lear Fan) – Ranulff – Equal second in the market, and ideally drawn to enable her to slot in behind the leaders on the fence, this six year old mare is a model of consistency. She’s taken home a check in each of her last ten runs. All but two of those checks were for podium finishes, including the winners share on five occasions. All her current form is around this distance range, and although most of it is allowance form, she does have a handy stakes win amongst those efforts. A question mark remains regarding her ability at the Graded level, as she’s fallen shorts in each of three previous attempts, but she’s racing in stellar form at present, and this looks a good opportunity for her to overcome that ‘blemish’ in her career

# 3 – Erendirita – (Bernardini – Justice Reigns (Cat Thief / Lit De Justice)) – Ottico – A winner of six of fifteen, and capable of running the sort of time we’ll be looking at here, this Graded placed four year old looks to have sneaked in under the radar when the early markets were being framed. She’s won two of her last three, with the previously mentioned Graded placing coming four starts back in the G3-The Nannette last August. That equates to very handy recent form. But perhaps the most telling positives in her formline feature just a little further back. Between December 06 and March 07, she had three consecutive races, two allowances and an ungraded stakes, over the distance she faces this week. They are her only three career runs at this trip, and she won all three of them. That’s good form in this writer’s opinion. This is a handy field, but if you’re looking for betting value, it doesn’t look to come much better than this.

# 4 – Oro Blanco – Vindication – Growling (Kingmambo / Forestry)) – Mygirldeb – Can she win this race? Probably not, but I’m tipping she won’t come last either. Is she one of the sim’s great claims? Without a doubt. Is she going to make a name for herself in the black type ranks? Also yes, without a doubt. She’s beautifully bred, and I’m a great believer in the “Vindication needs time” school of thought. So, here’s my prediction. This mare will run a much better race here than her price would suggest. She’ll go on to continue scoring triple digits, and to continue racing in good quality races. She’ll go on to be the subject of many more BTB articles, many of which will point out what a great bargain she was. And she’ll eventually make a marvelous broodmare.

# 5 – Dominique’s Ten  – (Rock Hard Ten – Deja Blue (Forty Niner / Sadler’s Wells)) – Cheyenne15 – She’s second longest in the market, and it would take a massive form turnaround for her to be able to overcome all the quality opposition she faces here. She’s registered just one triple digit speed rating (101) in thirty two starts. She’s not yet earned enough to have her photo taken, which is not a good sign given the aforementioned thirty two runs. Her one black type win was by a nose in a small field in Jamaica. I keep looking, but I can’t really find anything to inspire confidence. Sorry.

# 6 – Single White Pat – (Gone West – Three D FX (Deputy Minister / Danzig)) – Casino – This more than handy half million dollar earner didn’t have the best of years in 2009, but looks to have rebounded with her first start of the new year. We need to go back into the history books to find her career highlights, but a juvenile third in the G1-Filly Grand Prix and, even more impressively, the same result in the G1-Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf Filly, underline her undoubted class. As a three year old, second in the G2-Crumble Classic was the highlight of that year. Following that, as we’ve mentioned, 2009 was ordinary, with just an allowance win, and another in an ungraded stakes, providing the highlights. But how about that first race this year? The 106 she carded equaled her previous career best speed rating. We know she’s got class. We know she’s got current good form. Most punters will want to see her prove she’s back to her peak, but if she is, this may be the best chance to support her at this sort of price.

# 7 – No She Didn’t – (Dynaformer / Gone West / Graustark) – Timolloy – The most lightly raced runner in the field with just ten starts under her belt, it’s hard to argue with the market’s assessment on raw speed numbers or quality of achievements thus far. But perhaps a little caution should be exercised when handicapping her, as she possibly has the greatest scope for improvement. I can’t really see her as a winning chance, as she’s had the two previous tilts at the black type, falling just short of the podium both times, and she’s stepping up to Graded class here. But she is a last start winner. She’s registered triple digits in two of her last three, and looks capable of making those numbers, and better, the norm from here on in. I think this might be a bit rich at this stage of her career, but if I were going wide in the exotics, I’d be unwilling to leave her out.

# 8 – Mara Jade – (Rahy / Danzig / Roberto) – Claymore – This four year old lines up for just the eighteenth time, and steps into her first Graded challenge following an ideal preparation. She’s taken time to mature and, more importantly, has been given that time through a patient training program. She wasn’t disgraced when tested in black type about twelve months ago, but then returned to allowances where she hit the podium in each of the next seven. Three ungraded stakes appearances since late last year have landed two wins and a third. Last start, over this trip, she cruised home with more than three lengths to spare. She’s ready for this now. This isn’t an easy introduction, but I’m confident she’ll run a big race, and that we’ll see plenty more of her in upcoming Graded events.

# 9 – Capital Kindness – (North Light – No Violence (Machiavellian / Shadeed)) – Screaming –  8/1 would normally point to a runner mid way down the betting in a full field, but in this case, this filly ranks number four in the market, and with good chances which may, in hindsight, make that early price seem somewhat generous. Her price has been inflated by the shocker she ran in the G2-The Heidi Fleiss, last September. But in two runs since then she’s proven to have taken no harm from that race, as evidenced by her nose defeat, last time out, in the G3-Carrot Classic. She’s Grade 1 placed just four starts back, yet another pointer to her class. There’s a slight concern with her strike rate, having won just the two starts from fourteen, but she hasn’t been seeking out easy targets, and has been running big races in good quality fields. I really like her chances, especially considering that some of her more fancied opponents seem to lack her top class experience. She’s the value runner among the top rated hopes.

# 10 – The Witching Hour – (Fantastic Light – Baku (Danzig / Private Account))  – Buffy8 – She’s a Grade 1 winner still racing with plenty of heart. She’s a winner of three of her last four starts, albeit at a somewhat lower level. She’s banked over one and a quarter million dollars and she hasn’t gone home without a check in a dozen runs since September 08. Put all that together and you have a strong and formidable formline. While she’s not contesting the quality of event that she frequented for most of her career, she’s still proving to be most competitive in virtually everything she enters. There’s no reason to suggest she won’t put in another top run here. The 107 and 108 of her last two runs are equal to anything else on the recent form guide. There’s no reason to suggest she won’t put in another top run here, which is why the oddsmakers have her very near the top of the market.

# 11 – Backinaminute – (Alderberan – Easy Kingdom (Kings Lake / Affirmed)) – Thecrow – A winner of four from seventeen, this filly has finished on the podium in fourteen of those career starts, and taken home consolation checks in the other three. You simply don’t get much more consistent than that. So why the generous quote? Basically, it comes down to times and winning consistency. It’s now eight starts since she took home the winners share, and she’s registered triple digits in just two of her career runs. Contrast that with some of the more highly fancied, who trot out triple digits every time they go to the track, and we start to see the difference. But let’s be positive. She’s a Graded placed stakeswinner with nearly $300k in the bank. She doesn’t run a bad race and while I can’t see her winning, a solid effort is to be expected once again.

# 12 – Rolex – (Ghostzapper – Nexis Ofthe Crisis (Kingmambo / Danehill)) – Super1 –  Capable but inconsistent, this talented mare is down in the betting due to a losing streak of seven races, dating back to June last year. And although she’s won an impressive six of her twenty, that aforementioned win was the only victory in the last fifteen starts. That’s right, since winning her first five, including the G3-Fast Lane Stakes at her third start, she’s gone from potential world-beater to a handy, but unreliable battler. On a positive note, her whole career has been against black type opposition, and she hasn’t been disgraced, regularly running a handy race. I imagine that’s what connections are looking to here. Another handy race, but without the expectation of victory.

# 13 – Herself a Vixen – (Smart Strike – Saratoga Sioux (Sadler’s Wells / Green Dancer))  – Redrum – Superbly bred, and relatively lightly raced for a five year old, this mare has been given plenty of time to mature. Having started her racing career as a January three year old, her starts have been nicely spaced, with all bar one at the lower allowance level. She was tested, and found wanting, in Graded company as a September three year old, but it’s her most recent four runs which shows she’s now ready for promotion. Consecutive triple digit ratings, trending upwards, and a strong victory over this trip, last time out, in 1.41.8, have given connections the signal to aim higher. This is a strong, fairly even field, and she’ll have that black type question mark hovering until she performs at the higher grade, but she needs only a repeat of that last run to be counted among the genuine chances again this week.

# 14 – Plain of Existence – (High Chaparral / More Than Ready / Sovereign Dancer) – Acote6 – One of the outsiders in the early betting, this mare has proven thus far to be one of those who are more than competitive in the allowance ranks, but struggle to make the grade when promoted. This is her sixth attempt at black type, but she’s failed to reach the podium in the earlier five. Contrast that with her latest allowance form. In the money, including three wins, from her last seven consecutive starts at the lower standard. She hasn’t won since March last year, hasn’t registered a triple digit run since April, and she’s drawn the widest gate. It’s hard to argue with the bookmakers’ assessment, but her most recent run was a tad more promising. Not for mine, but she’s not hopeless.

Selections:

Capital Kindness – Grade 1 placed, in good form and at a great price

Erendirita – In top form and unbeaten at this journey. Great Value

Please Move Over – Deserves to win, but I rarely tip favorites to win.