Oh Buddy Boy

Race : Buddy Boy Mile – Grade III – $750,000
Track : Japan
Restrictions : All horses, 4 years old and up
Distance : One mile on the Turf

Welcome racing fans to the land where money grows on trees… No, not the Desperado sweetheart of a pony… Yes it is Japan, where they hand out 750k for Grade III races… Wow that’s a lot of moola… Most G1’s don’t pay this much, so of course some real nice horses have made their way down here to see if they can cash a monster check.  Grab a sake and a bento box and settle in folks because this is not the only race on the card, no sirree Buddy Boy… The pick 3 – race 12, 13 and 14 are all graded events so the fans here will be in for a treat. Cruising around the stands I saw some famous faces… Ichiro is back home for the race along with World Series MVP Hideki Matsui… Most folks think these guys don’t like each other but they were mugging for the cameras together.  Both are big race fans so when I caught up with them I asked where there ample disposable income would be riding and they had some interesting thoughts (through an interpreter) that I will share with you when we get to the analysis.  Another surprise celebrity in attendance was Viking’s QB Brett Favre.  Still smarting from his upset in last week’s championship game and looking for a place to escape from the prying eyes of the press. Well Brett had some picks to share also and sends his regards to sim Oz Mike. He said “I guess the one thing I take a little solace in, is that I made a guy like Mike’s day. If it can’t be us I am glad his team is finally playing for all the marbles.”  Well now that we know the goodies are ahead lets get to it…

The Field

Scratch bred 4 year old son of Smart Strike (Nuryev x Bold Ruler) is bred to be a champion but thus far he has been as disappointing as the G1 Florida Derby winner can be… That is until he tried 8f on turf. A 115 open stakes win last out and boom, here we are.  His previous was 18 points higher than anything since summer so beware of a bounce. If he can repeat then a new contender has emerged in the mile division.  Versatile style appealed to Ichiro.

5 year old Rainbow Quest scratch breed (Sadler’s Wells x Gone West). Seems to have finally found a race he likes in the turf mile… Moved up through computer point allowances and then nearly scored in an 8f G3. Very odd route to this level but seems to fit. That said he also could be a little outclassed in this one. Mid-pack and one move on turn… If he keeps improving… Maybe.

6 year old out of Beat Hollow out of the hemare Fire (Nureyev x Dynaformer). He is enjoying a renaissance after a great 4 year old campaign that tailed off to an 09 campaign of mostly allowance races. Seems to have worked his way back to this level. Ran disappointing in this race last year but is the surprising morning line second choice. Another one with an interesting story. Matsui likes the way he was written off and now seems poised to return to the top.

4 year old Danehill Dancer out of dam Seeking Steven (Stephen Got Even x Seeking The Gold) was bought out of the auction for over 4 million and entered here off that purchase. Seems to have been a sprinter for old connections but pedigree says a mile is no problem. The horse likes to win (10 of 17 starts) but the change of trainers and the stretch out makes him tough to choose here.  First trip at a route in a graded race?  Wow this race is weirder than my write up!

4 year old Awesome Again out of dam Unbridled Gold (Fusaichi Pegasus x Unbridled). First 10 races came on the dust but has made his mark fast in only 5 turf starts. Won the G1 Parking Ticket two back at a half click longer. Style is similar to others on his inside but the classy win seems to give him the nod over those. Favre likes the Super groups entry.

The longest shot on the board seems to have arrived in the most conventional style so far. 4 year old Speightstown colt seems to relish the mile. He comes in off two open stakes scores at a mile and a big win in an allowance mile. Big bump up in class… Is he up to it? If so a major value play.

5 year old Deep Impact scratched out of Smart Strike x Rainbow Quest.  Best efforts have come at 7.5 so the mile is a bit of a question mark. Dreadful debut of 2010 in sprint and then a big bump up does not sound like the recipe for success. Both Matsui and Ichiro like the local breeding on this one but I am not so sure.  Seems to run best on or near the lead a style that may be effective as most in here seem to want something to run at.

5 year old Galileo scratch bred out of Unbridled Song x Roberto. Last 4 have left something to be desired but 5 back scored in a graded race at this level. Last one over this lawn was awful but maybe needed to acclimate to the surface here in Japan. Deep closer in a race that seems to be lacking pace. Top speeds also seems to be lacking the extra notch that many in here have. Favre’s wife likes the name.

The 4 year old Kingmambo out of Egyptian Princess (AP Indy x Kris S) put it all together in his last trip here in Japan.  Boffo effort makes him look like a horse for the course. Impeccable breeding, coupled with a front running style that seems to fit the race makes him very attractive at 8-1. Before his last one he was running longer and really seems to have liked the cut back. One race phenom? We shall find out soon enough. Matsui loves this one.

The five year old scratch Galileo out of Mr P x Theatrical looked like he had found his best form in back to back open stakes wins before tanking in the GRS championship. Seems like this one may not like facing the big boys as he also flopped in his last graded run.  Has won stalking and on the lead perhaps an edge in a race that seems to be lacking pace. Favre likes a headstrong animal and the name seems to indicate this one fits the bill.

The morning line fave is a scratch bred El Prado out of Danehill x El Gran Senor. Very consistent putting up big spf’s and owns a graded score on this track. Verastile style so he can be up front or rate, 17-23 lifetime on the board so can’t see him not cashing a check. In a race full of odd histories this guy looks the part of a graded winner past performance wise. 7/2 seems generous.

4 year old scratch bred Unbridled’s Song x AP Indy x Kingmambo looks a little wet behind the ears in this group. He is making only his 8^th start and has only gone 110 or better once (his last start). He is still eligible for NW3L and has never won a stakes race of any kind.  At 12-1 it seems like there are better options for betting. I would say that this one could be a monster 2 or 3 races from now but today I can’t see it.

The Picks

Matsui likes King and Pharoah

Ichiro picks Samstag

Favre is going with Disobedient

No one likes to pick the favorite but at 7/2 he is a square price and I am going with Kalamunda