Will Neck Neck Nose Jinx End
The Old Man Stakes (G2) will be run in North Korea this weekend. Please make sure this is the race review you intend to read, as there is a sister race, The Old Lady Stakes, which is being run at the South Korea race track.
First, Ineed to note that there is a horse in this race by the name of Neck Neck Nose that I fear I may have jinxed. More details regarding this are provided below, but I hope the jinx gets lifted and my guilt gets lifted.
Now, we’ll take a look at this mile and ¾ race which will be contested on a dirt track. Weather conditions are looking good for the weekend, so the track should be fast. Neck Neck Nose, a horse that I happen to like, solely for the name, will be running in this race and I hope that amends can be made. You will see later on why.
1. Severe Risk 11-1
Severe Risk has only one career start at the 14 furlongs the field will be running and this was in The Europe Stayer (G3) back in August where he finished 5th at steep odds, but at a career best speed of 102. Severe has only one other start in graded racing and that was in December with much better results, finishing 3rd in the Grey Fox (G2) with a speed of 98.
Severe Risk is loaded with speed and will be competing with Klavier for the early lead. If you discount the two graded starts, Severe would have five consecutive wins, all at the allowance level. But we can’t discount them. He’ll be pressed for the lead and will need to keep enough in the tank to go the distance.
2. Space Invader 8-1
In December, Space Invader put in a great run in the Russian Theater Special (non-graded) running 14 furlongs in a speed of 109. He looked like he was going to run off with the win after taking a 3 stride lead at the ¾-pole, only to be run down by foe Salt and Light and settling for second.
Space Invader took on Salt and Light once again in January, this time in the G3 Gallant Socks Handicap (13f). The results were disastrous, with Space Invader finishing well off the board with a speed drop to 91. Space Invader is a hot and cold horse, which is evidenced in the two races just noted and supported by a record of 2-1-2 in 12 starts during 2009. There is value here if he is hot, but I don’t think the risk is worth it.
3. Jedi Ransom 2-1
Jedi Ransom made quite the turnaround for Trainer Lenny28, who took over this horse midway through 2009. Immediately, Jedi was switched from the grass to the dirt and quickly collected three consecutive wins in allowance and non-graded starts. In 7 dirt starts, he has a record of 4-2-0. All 7 starts were speeds above 100 and averaging just over 107.
His most recent start was his first dirt graded event, the G1 Topicount Special (12f), finishing second in 110. He is a notorious slow starter with a thunderous closing move. He is a threat, despite adding 2 furlongs, and I don’t see him having a problem with the added distance.
4. Thirty Four In Red 4-1
The third ranked horse enters the race after an easy win in the G1 The Big Apple (14f) where he left the gate slowly, but easily ran past the competition, and won by a gapping 3 1/4 lengths, in a speed of 103. 2009 was a good year for Thirty four, sporting a record of 4-1-1 in 9 starts, collecting a pair of G1 wins, as well as purse checks in each start.
In comparison to the favorite, the 103 speed looks low, however, Thirty Four had cleared the field and could ease up at the end. He is capable of running higher speeds and should not be counted out.
5. Klavier 14-1
Simply said, Klavier’s best shot is to wire the field. That won’t be too easy for this pace setting horse, as he will have to find a way to get away from Severe Risk who will be shooting for the lead. Klavier has an impressive career record of 7-0-1 in 13 dirt races.
Klavier has one graded race back in May with uneventful results. Other than having to fight to get the lead there are two other challenges for Klavier. First, he has only one race with a speed over 100 and will need to get there again. Second, he adds 3 furlongs to his longest run race and will need to find a way to stay on the lead for a longer distance, which does not look promising.
6. Xtra Welcome 5-1
Xtra Welcome came up short when running against Thirty Four In Red in G1 The Big Apple (14f), finishing second with a speed of 101. From December 2008 to May 2009, Xtra Welcome could not do anything right. During that time span, ran in 6 graded races and finished off the board in each start. From June ’09 to October ’09, Xtra was moved to the allowance level and found things much better, going 3-1-0 in 5 starts.
In November, Xtra was promoted back to the graded level and responded with a third in the Rocky Top Derby (16f) and the before mentioned 2nd in the Big Apple. Signs are pointing to a turn around for this 6-year old, but use cautiously.
7. Salt and Light 9-2
Salt and Light just earned his first graded win in the G3 Gallant Socks Handicap (13f), winning by 4 in a speed of 102. He is currently on a three race win streak, which includes non-graded wins in the Russian Theater Special (14f, set career best speed of 111 and beat out Space Invader) and the Leno’s Chin Stakes (16f) on a good track.
Salt and Light has an average speed of 106 in his last three starts running 14f. Salt has broken away from track restricted allowance races, where he spent considerable time for about a year, and is starting to show his abilities moving into tougher competition. Use in the triples.
8. Neck Neck Nose 8-1
I’ve covered this horse before and once again we meet paths. I love the name, not sure why, but I do. I am not going to pick him. I feel responsible for his current losing streak, which I may have caused by making him my top pick in February, 2009. The Cowboy Handicap was the race where I picked him and he did well finishing 2nd, but hasn’t won a race since. (For the record, he officially hasn’t won since November, 2008 but I am sure my picking him contributed to the losing streak).
Neck Neck Nose does have ability. Despite being shutout during 2009, he has finished second six times in 13 starts. So, I’m not going to say much more and just walk away and hope that something good will happen to this horse and take my guilt away.
My Picks: 4-3-7
Trackman: 3-4-7
Yossman Tipsheet: 3-4-7
As a side note, not all my of my picks go on noticeable losing streaks. At least I hope they don’t.