Scam Stakes – Beginning of Derby Trail?
The Scam Stakes will be the first of three consecutive Graded stakes on Saturday’s card, and features a fairly solid full field of 3yo colts, all hoping to start their path toward that certain Saturday in May. The slight favorite is DANCER’S SECRET, but this fine-looking colt will surely be tested here by this group, which includes no less than three runners from the powerful “Supers” stable group.
1) AURORA SLEW TED, a grandson of Seattle Slew by one of his lesser-known sons, is trained by aurora, and has the best speed rating in the field to go along with a propensity for consistently running tough yet finding a way to somehow get beaten. While it’s very hard to tell with these lightly-raced young colts, this might be a slight drop in overall class today. The CPU seems to agree, making this colt co-2nd-favorite at 5/1.
2) STARS OF BUDA has done little wrong thus far in his short career, winning his first pair before taking on good ones in the G2 Club Stakes at Kentucky. The son of Fusaichi Pegasus did appear to regress some in finishing 2nd of four in a small stakes in Malaysia his last time out, however. “I think we’ll see the return of the real “Stars” this time”, said trainer joanneb. “I should probably hve stayed stateside with him.” Should this return to form happen, this guy could surprise at 12/1.
3) HELLHOUND, a son of Big Brown, had trouble in his disappointing debut, but has since won 2 of 4 for wistful0. The diminutive chestnut colt (Hey, shouldn’t he be big and brown?) held on to win a short-field stakes at Malaysia last out, beating STARS OF BUDA in the process. This is one of three colts being sent out in this race by the powerful Super stable group; maybe they’ve got something up their collective sleeves. 21/1 and not without a chance.
4) CURLY Q, one of the top 2009 Curlin offspring, is trained by lgbost2y and has been on a roll, coming off 2 consecutive stakes wins. His dam, while well-bred, wasn’t a big success on the track; her son has already is looking to surpass her career earnings in just his 9th outing. His one graded-stakes try was pretty solid, and it was at this track. The CPU is well aware of this guy, making him co-2nd choice at 5/1.
5) RAPTOR RIDGE made his first pair of attempts on the turf, understable considering the turf tendencies of his sire, Dylan Thomas. While those tries were okay, trainer super28 thought his colt might do better on the main track; he was proven correct once he stretched the colt around two turns. He’s 2 of 4 since that move, and his strong Oklahoma allowance win with a 94 speed rating earned him the chance at the big time. 11/1 for this member of the Super army.
6) OCTOMAN has been sent into one stakes after another by trainer stlsnapper since his debut maiden win. Other than the Iowa Invitational in a 4-horse field, the son of Zanjero has had difficulty competing in this kind of company. This group’s probably even tougher, reflected in his 16/1 odds.
7) SILVER MISCHIEF has only run 4 times, but has shown he might be able to win in graded company with just a little improvement. Trainer crush83 thinks today would be a good time for that to happen, saying that there had been a bit of traffic trouble in his G1 Movieland Futurity try. The colt’s relatively obscure sire has fathered a bit of quality, too. Decent shot, at 11/1.
8) DANCER’S SECRET put himself into the center of the “Bluegrass futures” picture with his strong G3 Silver Fence Derby win last time out.. Blankpoin2‘s speedy Rahy colt loves this racing surface and looks every bit like a future champion. Possibly the only caveat regarding this colt is the fact that it’ll be his third race since Dec. 19; a lot to ask of a 3yo this early in the year. The CPU is even a little wary, making him the lukewarm 9/2 choice.
9) ARGYLE STAR certainly started his career on the right foot, but things didn’t go so nicely in the G3 Silver Fence Derby last time out. Trainer breednsell said after that race, “He just didn’t relax when he didn’t get his usual easy lead, but he still hung in pretty good for awhile. I think he ran well enough to merit another shot”. The CPU isn’t so sure, posting him at 15/1.
10) SHELTERED has been pretty solid with allowance foes and tries stakes company for the first time today. The son of A. P. Indy, trained by saver, is the first offspring of the excellent “A”-rated Sim-racemare Priveleged, a winner of three Grade 1’s and three other graded-stakes races in her career. The CPU wants more proof of quality, listing the colt at 13/1. However, this trainer wins a lot of races and doesn’t often stick ’em in impossible spots.
11) RUNNING STORM was going along pretty well, but ran into buzzsaws in his last two races, both being loaded with budding superstars. The bandinni-trained colt is 18/1, so the CPU is starting to have its doubts regarding this one.
12) RAPPER’S DELIGHT, the third of Super’s trio of runners, goes off at 15/1 for the worldwide barn. Before you just dismiss that 11th-place run last out, look at the lengths-back figure. He was closing well and only lost by 3.5 lengths that day. He goes back to 2-turning today, but could surprise here.
13) HOLIDAY GOLD goes at 17/1 for the ongaurdrac stable. This son of Harlan’s Holiday was fairly impressive in his last, a dominant allowance win at this track against a short field. This is a huge step up the class ladder, and his speed numbers show that he’ll need quite of improvement to contend here.
14) BRAVE NEW VOICES has been dominant in Kentucky allowance races. The only loss, a late-closing 6th in the G1 Paramus Mile, came in New Jersey. Trainer willyam40 says of his 10/1 shot, “I don’t think he liked the situation there on the Jersey Shore. So now, we’re going to give this coast one shot.”
My pix: 8-1-4-3
The Benelux pix, from Yoss: 8-1-4-14
Good luck at the races!