Could Stablemates Duel in G1 Race?
Mr. Met Cap
Grade I
A mile and one quarter on the Firm Turf Course
Purse:$200,000 – 1st: $120,000, 2nd: $50,000, 3rd: $16,000, 4th: $10,000, 5th: $4,000
All horses, 3 years old and up
Stakes record – Inaugural Running
At first glance, this race looks like most others with a couple of favorites and the rest as also rans. Upon further review however, we have a really close race with nearly everyone being a contender. This time of year is a real swing time with some of the older horses started to hit the downhill skid and some of the four and five year olds just starting to come into their own on turf at this distance. With that in mind it ought to be a tremendous race here in the late summer of South Africa so let’s take a look:
1 – TARA(IRE) ODDS STABLE WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED EARNINGS RANK Tulloch Stables 9/2 BredToSell 11.0% Ji Smith 37 – 6 – 1 – 8 – 16% 112 $ 2,509,400 42
( GENEROUS(IRE) x GALILEO (IRE) x WARNING(GB) out of SIREN SONG) Our only mare in the race, this six year old ended last year with perhaps her best effort finishing with a lifetime best 112 SPF in the DelPenn Day where she finished second. With this first race of her sixth year campaign we will have to see whether she drops off with an additional year of age. Trainer BredToSell and the Tulloch Stables have high hopes that she will be one of those turf runners that don’t even hit their stride until their later years. Her stalking style should work from this post and she has a hot jockey up in Smith who is having an excellent 9th season, way above his lifetime averages. All in all, with a nice layoff the bounce from that big last race should be negligible and she could be a major factor in this one.
 | 2 – CHOP EM DANE(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meguire Stables | 8/1 | Meguire6th | 8.1% | Y.Tsugumichi | 10 – 4 – 0 – 2 – 40% | 110 | $ 250,038 | 190 |
( WANDO x DANEHILL DANCER (IRE) x HAIL TO REASON) Although he was competitive in several Graded Stakes the second half of last year, this six year old never topped the 105 SPF mark. That could be a signal to trainer and owner Meguire that this guy may be ready to slow down a bit in this coming year. They have a red hot jockey in Tsugumichi who is bringing home winners at a 40% clip but this horse has never won a Stakes race of any kind and I don’t see it happening here.
 | 3 – PERFECT STRANGER(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Stables | 5/1 | MalekFarms | 19.5% | J.Donato | 6 – 0 – 1 – 0 – 0% | 115 | $ 1,693,656 | 14 |
(GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x MISWAKI x PLEASANT COLONY out of HIGHWAY STAR) As a three year old this guy was really flying the end of the year with two G2 wins and a fourth in a G1 until he ran into the DelPenn his last race of the year and finished 15 lengths back. Hopefully for Malekfarms and the AFC Stables, that was a one race aberration and this guy is ready to start his four year campaign with a big race here. He likes to race from mid pack and has a good spot to do that here. An overriding concern is that lightly used jockey Donato is still looking for his first win of the season with only one finish on the board. A few worries for a pre race favorite.
 | 4 – SPIRITUAL THEATRE(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astins Place | 6/1 | Adrian4 | 6.9% | J.Smith | 46 – 7 – 4 – 7 – 15% | 110 | $ 655,787 | 132 |
( THEATRICAL(IRE) x HALO x MILL REEF) This pretty cream colored five year old is still looking for his first Graded win but had two close seconds in the past year and started this year with his best ever 110 SPF. If he can duplicate that here for trainer Adrian4 he should be in the mix. Jockey Smith has been looking good so far with seven wins on the young season and should help this guy push to the nest level. Another big race here could push this horse up the rankings in a big way and cause some eyes to start watching him this coming year.
 | 5 – PUSH OF A BUTTON(AUS) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deadinthelane Stables | 4/1 | mav1763 | 23.0% | T.Loesch | 68 – 24 – 10 – 11 – 35% | 110 | $ 2,797,508 | 8 |
( ELVSTROEM (AUS) x TREMPOLINO x GREY DAWN II) Part of a coupled entry from the Deadinthelane Stables, this chestnut five year old goes off as the Morning Line favorite although his final race of last year was somewhat disappointing. He had a great year with two wins and two seconds in Gradeds and after his worst race of the year he bounced back with a Grade One win. You can bet that trainer Mav1763 would love to see that duplicated here. Jockey Loesch is in the leather and he is possibly the tracks best and has been showing his talents again this year. All in all a formidable team in this race.
 | 6 – DYNA IN DUBAI(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desperado Stables | 9/2 | Desperado | 18.2% | E.Eberhard | 59 – 10 – 16 – 8 – 17 % | 110 | $ 874,210 | 31 |
( DYNAFORMER x HALO x NEARCTIC) This beautiful roan five year old had a very consistent year last with nine Graded outings and only two worse than fourth place. Included in that were two G2 wins. Trainer and owner Desperado gave him a nice rest after the DelPenn and enters this year with high hopes for an even better year with maturity. He likes to hang toward the back and make his move at the half and has Eberhard in the irons with a nice start to his year with ten wins. This horse should be flashing his grey sides down the stretch in the mix and there are hopes that Eberhard can bring him home.
 | 7 – DETAILED KNOWLEDGE(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deadinthelane Stables | 6/1 | Mav176 | 14.6% | T.Grear | 18 – 1 – 3 – 1 – 6 % | 110 | $ 308,095 | 625 |
( SKY CLASSIC x VISCOUNT (AUS) x HORSE CHESTNUT (SAF) out of NEKRATAAL) Although this five year old enters this race on a four race win streak, this will be his very first Graded race and he’s starting at the top for trainer Mav176. The second of a coupled entry by Deadinthelane Stables, this twosome looks like a good bet as they are both looking good right now. This guy had his lifetime best the week before Christmas with a 110 SPF and may be ready for great things in his five year old campaign. He has Grear in the saddle who has struggled somewhat in the current season but he has always been solid in his ten years racing. There’s a great chance that this team will hit the board in this one.
 | 8 – CALIFORNIA LOOP(JPN) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autumn Wind Acres | 5/1 | Equus | 12.0% | R.Beliveau | 13 – 3 – 1 – 1 – 23 % | 112 | $ 407,372 | 332 |
( MOON BALLAD (IRE) x OUR EMBLEM x TROY(GB) out of CALIFORNIA EMBLEM) I’m sure that trainer Equus was hoping for a little rain this weekend as his five year old horse is a perfect four for four on an off track. The weatherman didn’t cooperate but this horse still has one of the fastest recent SPFs in the field with a 112 two back winning a listed Stakes race. He has actually won three in a row but two of those were on the slick stuff. Beliveau is holding the reins and he’s having the best year of his seven in the saddle. This team definitely looks like they could be in the mix here and could make some big noise with a win.
Morning Line = 5-1-6-3-8
Yoss Tips = 1-7-4-8
Paz Picks = 7-5-8-1
There is lots of turf talent in this one and most are running their first race of the season. Because of that, this race is extremely hard to handicap. The BTB likes a prediction though and that is why I get the “big” bucks! Any one of these four could win the race but I like TARA to finish fourth. This lady could very well win the race but I’m worried about a bounce from her last race and going against the boys in this one. CALIFORNIA LOOP looked really great last time out and is on a hot streak and I think he has enough to finish in the top three. I have the Deadinthelane coupled entry in my top two slots. They are tough to choose between but I have PUSH OF A BUTTON finishing just behind DETAILED KNOWLEDGE in a real duel down the stretch.
Good luck to all runners!
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