Could a Recent Claimer Win a Graded?
CA, Race ID 4183.0114
The Jamie Pasqual
Grade II
A mile and one sixteenth on the Fast Dirt Course
$150,000
All horses, 4 years old and up
Stakes record – Inaugural Race
It’s the first race weekend of the year and we have lot’s of trainers and horses with dreams of big things in Y2K10. We have a small but very competitive field here this weekend all trying to get off to a great start for the new campaign. It appears that some of these are just starting to make a break in their careers. Some of those are good and some may be getting up in age and having to worry about starting the downhill slide. It’s always interesting the very first race of the year so let’s take a look:
1 – ELECTRICAL CHARGE(KY) ODDS STABLE WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED EARNINGS RANK Fabman Farms 9/2 FabFarms 19.9% C.Ginszo 0 – 0 – 0 – 0 – N/A% 111 $ 282,176 252
( POSSE x RED RANSOM x FORTY NINER out of ELECTRICAL RANSOM) One of two entries from Fabman Farms in the race, this six year old is still going strong coming into this one with three consecutive wins. They were all allowance races with solid SPFs in the 109 range but it’s been a year and half since he won a Stakes race and he is still looking for that elusive first Graded victory. He’s had an amazing 24 straight races with triple digit SPFs but it sure looks as if he might be just a bit past his peak. He has Ginzo in the saddle and that likely won’t help much as he has a less than stellar win percentage. This horse is a stalker and the inside post may help there. He could be in the mix with a good effort.
 | 2 – BAD’S ROCKET(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabman Farms | 7/2 | Bad | 14.5% | A.Lewis | 0 – 0 – 0 – 0 – N/A% | 115 | $ 187,416 | 134 |
( THE CLIFF’S EDGE x SEATTLE SLEW x MR. PROSPECTOR out of BORN TO BE BAD) The second of the coupled entry from Fabman Farms, this five year old big brown horse has just missed in a couple of previous Graded races. He won his first Stakes race last time out with a sizzling 115 SPF that if he carry that over will be a big problem for the other contenders. They have Lewis in the leather and his 19 years of experience and third best record at this track should serve them well. The last time this horse hit a big number, he fell back for a couple of races but with his maturity that may not be a problem here. He could be a tough one to beat.
 | 3 – ROBUST(IRE) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pilgrim Stables | 12/1 | Pilgrim5 | 8.9 | F.Gossett | 0 – 0 – 0 – 0 – N/A% | 111 | $ 640,020 | 17 |
(HIGH CHAPARRAL (IRE) x PEINTRE CELEBRE (IRE) x HOIST THE FLAG) The Pilgrim Stables have a coupled entry here as well. This five year old horse had a solid year in ’09 but really slipped his last couple of races. Trainer Pilgrim5 is hoping that he is ready to bounce back and the increased experience will help him work through those problems. One thing that should help is the addition of jockey Gossett to the team as he is by far the best at this track. This horse like either a deep close or stalking style and will need a big push at the end to get close.
 | 4 – PAINTED ROCKS(JPN) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pilgrim Stables | 11/1 | Acote3 | 10.2% | O.Brim | 0 – 0 – 0 – 0 – N/A% | 109 | $ 89,759 | 751 |
( ROCK OF GIBRALTAR (IRE) x PEINTRE CELEBRE (IRE) x LEAR FAN) The second of the Pilgrim Stables entries looks like a near carbon copy of the other. He had a solid year but really slipped right at the end. That has to worry trainer Acote3 because as they age it is easy for the big drop off to happen in a hurry. It could be that those races were an aberration and he is ready for a big bounce back. They have jockey Brim holding the reins and he has 17 years and a very solid record to help this horse find his way. He is up against a tough crowd here but the first race of the year is a great time for hopes and dreams.
 | 5 – K’S BRANDERBURGH(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pompeya Thoroughbred Racing Corp | 2/1 | Pygmalion | 26.2% | M.Staples | 0 – 0 – 0 – 0 – N/A% | 114 | $ 530,835 | 61 |
( KINGMAMBO x SEATTLE SLEW x DANZIG) A couple of Stakes wins and a couple of very near Graded misses has to have trainer Pygmalion really excited about the potential for this year in this beautifully bred six year old. His past three races have gone 112, 113, 114 SPF and he if can keep that up for any period he is going to win a bunch of races. He is moving up the rankings and has top jockey Staples in the irons. Add all of that to the 26% win record for the Pygmalion stable and this could be a really formidable team for this race.
 | 6 – NO WORSHIP(IRE) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deadinthelane Stables | 10/1 | Lender | 16.1% | R.Simcox | 0 – 0 – 0 – 0 – N/A% | 108 | $ 112,101 | 139 |
( INVINCIBLE SPIRIT (IRE) x COZZENE x APALACHEE) Trainer Lender has done a nice job of bringing this four year old roan colt along slowly and it seems to be paying off with a nice jump in SPFs the end of his three year old campaign. He may be ready for a break out four year old season and this would be a great place to start the year off right. He will have to jump up those SPFs a bit more and he should get a boost from jockey Simcox who just seems to keep getting better. They are all hoping for a big year and a big race here.
 | 7 – NO WALKING AT DAWN(IRE) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meguire Stables | 10/1 | Meguire7th | 10.0% | J.Pimental | 0 – 0 – 0 – 0 – N/A% | 115 | $ 522,514 | 370 |
( FOOTSTEPSINTHESAND (GB) x GREY DAWN II x CHIEF’S CROWN) This pretty five year old cream colored horse is a bit tough to handicap. He seems to bounce up and down on a whim and it’s hard to figure out any type of pattern. Trainer Meguire has tried different things with him but he routinely goes from a Stakes win to a 12th in a Graded. He seems as if he is intimidated by the competition some times and that can be quite frustrating for a trainer. They have Pimental holding the reins and he has been solid in his nine years as a jockey. I wish I knew what to tell you about this horse in this race but it can certainly go either way.
 | 8 – SHOOK LOOSE (KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astin’s Place | 7/2 | Newastin4 | 25.4% | T.Bates | 0 – 0 – 0 – 0 – N/A% | 117 | $ 136,835 | 202 |
( AWESOME AGAIN x STORM CAT x SEEKING THE GOLD out of GRAND ENTRY) Quite a claim for trainer and owner Newastin4 five back of this beautifully bred five year old colt. Since that $150k claimer, this horse has four wins and a second including a Stakes win with a 117 SPF. He seems to like the distance a lot and this will be quite a story if he can pull off the Graded win after such a recent claim. They have Bates in the leather and he is one of the best out here. This could be a huge win for this team and leave an ex owner or two wondering what they were thinking when this horse was in their stable.
Morning Line = 5-2-8-4-6-7
Benelux Tips = 8-5-2-1
Paz Picks = 8-5-2-1
This first race of the year for these horses and trainers should be a ton of fun. I like ELECTRICAL CHARGE to turn up the voltage and finish fourth and keep up his consistent speeds. It appears to me that BAD’S ROCKET has matured and may keep up his recent success but I worry about the bounce in this one. My top two choices are really tough and either one could be the favorite in this one. The Morning Line has chosen K’S BRANDERBURGH and he looks really tough here but I think that he will come up just short. The story book ending of watching SHOOK LOOSE go from a recent claimer to a Graded winner is just too much to pass up and I think there is a great chance of it happening here.
Good luck to all runners!
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