G3 Queen Izzy Cup

The Queen Izzy Cap makes it’s inaugural run this weekend in New Zealand.  The race has caught the eyes of seven trainers who are sending there 3 year olds or older to compete in this mile and a half race.  The race will be held on the turf and although the field doesn’t look to be outstanding, it will be competitive with none of the entrants with odds higher than 7-1.

Getting the rail position is Victory Money  5-1.  This colt made his first start in a graded race in his last start where he was sent off at 21-1 in the Pennsylvania Handicap.  He did extremely well in this race, going the 9.5f in a speed of 112 (career best) and finished 2^nd.  Victory is a front runner and may well set the pace in this race.  He does have to answer the question…can he go the distance?  He’s never gone over 10f before and will certainly be tested in this race.

Theatrical Prayer  5-1 will be leaving from the second spot and makes a switch over to the turf.  Since March, 2007, Theatrical has raced only once on the turf and that was in the G3 The Barbersville (16f) last April.  That race had miserable results despite being sent off as the second choice at 9-2.  His recent form has been decent, finishing on the board in his last three outings.  In six graded starts, Theatrical has a third as his best finish.  He appears to have his best success on the dirt and has plenty of work to do.

Matisyahu 7-2 has certainly evolved as a 6 year old.  It’s hard to believe that this multiple graded stake winner was once a modest $10k claimer.  Before trainer Gtest took control of this horse, he had been racing on the dirt.  Trainer Gtest switched him to the turf and running routes.  Matisyahu has won 4 of 7 graded starts (all in 2009) with all being at 12f.  His last two outings don’t look too impressive.  He comes off an allowance race as the beaten favorite, finishing third for the 12f in a speed of 99.   The previous race was an 11^th place finish, but that was in the Breeder’s Bowl Turf where Matisyahu faced the best of the best.  At least he has an excuse for the Bowl race, but the allowance race there were no excuses.  Matisyahu is also shipping to New Zealand from Kentucky which also needs to be factored in. 

Leaving from post 4 is Inventor  4-1.  He has finished third in both of his two graded race starts, both being at 12f.  He comes off of a sharp win in the non-graded Bob the Cob Special, completing the 11f race in a speed of 106 where he rallied from a good 8 strides back at the half to roar off to a 3 length win.   Inventor has potential and his speeds have charted well lately, with 5 of his last 6 starts surpassing 100. 

Einshlag  7-1 is the longshot in the race and will start in the fifth spot.  Although Einshlag has never won a graded race, he has hit the board in 3 of his 5 starts.  He shows some dangerous late speed that can be over powering, however, he can be a stubborn horse at times where he refuses to cut loose and run.  He has had races where he has made up 10 or more lengths in the final half of the race and others where he refuses to budge.  There is good value for those who think he will decide to run.

Thorns of a Crown 5-1 draws post 6 and has one graded win in four tries.  Back in March, Thorns successfully won the G2 The Sandy Ray Handicap (12f) with a speed of 107.   He followed this up with a 2^nd in the G3 The Honey Do (12f) with an ok speed of 102.  It’s been downhill since for Thorns, finishing 10^th in a graded race and 5^th twice in non-graded starts (which includes the Bob the Cob Special), both with sub-100 speeds.   Thorns has been in a slump and is in a race that looks wide open.  He needs to jump on the opportunity.

The favorite in the race, Thrace  3-1, will be leaving from post 7.  Thrace has been extremely consistent with his speeds as they have been 100 or better in each of his starts dating back to November, 2008.  Thrace has two shows in five graded starts and has collected purse checks in every start dating back to September, 2008. He should be able to get some purse money here, just a matter of whether he will hit the board or not.   Several horses in this field seem to be in slumps lately which will work favorable for this consistent horse.

Matisyahu has the chance to resume to winning ways.  He has the most success of any of the entrants in graded racing and gets the top choice.

Second choice goes to Victory Money who will probably be the pace setter and could run away with it.

Consistency counts and Thrace has been in the 100’s with his speed for quite a while earning the third spot.