DPCD VIII Eruption Handicap
| The annual DPCD events brings us the G1 ‘DPCD VIII Eruption Handicap’ for two year-old colts at a distance of 8f. Today’s race features the #1 and #3 ranked colts in the division and also features some up and coming horses that are blossoming late in the season.
Let’s get on to the field… |
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| PP #1 – THROW DOWN(KY) | Owner: mtkgrs2 |
| Odds: 15-1 | (DISTORTED HUMOR x STORM CAT x UNBRIDLED) |
| Div Rank: 147 | Career: 6-2-0-1 $108,000 |
| Comments: Has the running style you like to see in a “classic” runner. But concerns are that he peaked last race and prior race SP’s have been below what will be needed to win here. Add in the fact that there is not a ton of speed, it may be tough to get the run he had last out. |
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| PP #2 – VICTORY IN INK(IRE) | Owner: ramo |
| Odds: 19-1 | (PEINTRE CELEBRE (IRE) x VICTORY GALLOP x DIXIELAND BAND) |
| Div Rank: 51 | Career: 9-2-1-1 $72,432 |
| Comments: The “vet” of the race with 9 trips already, but only has 2 wins to his name. Ramo tried a turf prep last out, which was an interesting strategy considering the horse was on an up-tick in the SP column. The hope here is he did not end the horses momentum. Also factor in that graded company has not treated this colt well and he will need a lot of help if he wants to put this victory in ink. |
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| PP #3 – RHYTHM N DANCE(KY) | Owner: super7 |
| Odds: 24-1 | (KINGMAMBO x SPEIGHTSTOWN x SAINT BALLADO) |
| Div Rank: N/A | Career: 2-1-0-0 $21,840 |
| Comments: We go from the most experienced horse in ‘Victory In Ink’ to the least experienced. Runner of only 2 races with 1 win to his name, all while both races have been on turf and his latest was nothing to ‘dance’ at. Maybe this empire has more than an evil plan in mind, but I don’t know what it is. |
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| PP #4 – BEGONE OASIS(ENG) | Owner: prufrock |
| Odds: 12-1 | (OASIS DREAM (GB) x FORTY NINER x BELONG TO ME) |
| Div Rank: 161 | Career: 7-1-2-1 $81,995 |
| Comments: Another horse who likes to sit back and let things fall into his lap, unfortunately, it’s only happened once in 7 tries and that was sprinting. Having said that, really impressed with the SP’s posted in last two outings and appears to have passed his “bounce” race. |
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| PP #5 – TIZJAZZ(KY) | Owner: invasor |
| Odds: 10-1 | (JAZIL x TIZNOW x UNBRIDLED’S SONG) |
| Div Rank: 27 | Career: 5-2-1-1 $94,680 |
| Comments: One of 3 true speed horses in the field. Comes off a nice effort in the G2 Ransom last out finishing 2nd at a furlong longer than today’s distance. Like that this horse had his bounce race 2 back and can now be ready to move forward if the horse has what it takes. Interested to see if he gets beat out of the gate if he’ll throw in the towel or fight on. |
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| PP #6 – DEVIL’S BACKBONE(KY) | Owner: fattattack2 |
| Odds: 13-1 | (ANY GIVEN SATURDAY x DEPUTY MINISTER x UNBRIDLED) |
| Div Rank: 202 | Career: 3-3-0-0 $33,960 |
| Comments: Lone undefeated horse in the field, with latest win coming in first try around 2-turns. I always look for when the first “big” jump happens as a potential bounce come immediately after. Unfortunately, that big jump came last out. Having said that, even if the falls back 2-3 points, he’s still in with a good chance. Also love the running style as he can sit just off or in the middle of the pack. |
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| PP #7 – THE BEGGAR KING(KY) | Owner: khalasar |
| Odds: 8-1 | (TIZNOW x DANZIG x MR. PROSPECTOR) |
| Div Rank: 6 | Career: 6-3-1-0 $350,095 |
| Comments: Breeder’s Bowl runner last out made a decent showing even though the board only shows a 6th place. But he was flying in the stretch and posted a career high 97 SP. This horse also that a nice closing kick that favors longer distances. Question is, not that he’s taking a 1/2f off, does he have enough “umph” to get there? |
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| PP #8 – TRUE CHAMP(FL) | Owner: graywolf19 |
| Odds: 43-1 | (DODGEM x JOHANNESBURG x MONTJEU (IRE)) |
| Div Rank: 552 | Career: 8-1-1-1 $29,906 |
| Comments: Longest shot on the board here with True Champ. Best efforts appear to have been on turf and SP’s make this horse an also ran. But maybe he will live up to his name. |
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| PP #9 – HIGHGARDEN(KY) | Owner: lopo87 |
| Odds: 9-1 | (A.P. INDY x DEPUTY MINISTER x FAPPIANO) |
| Div Rank: 74 | Career: 5-2-1-0 $80,744 |
| Comments: Another speedster that did not have success in previous G1 effort. Ran a career race last out and it still was not enough to win and looks like a big time drop is due after going up 16 SP’s in last outing, which was 9 higher than his previous best. Previous success was as lone leader and I don’t see that today. |
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| PP #10 – RUNNING STORM(KY) | Owner: bandinni |
| Odds: 24-1 | (CHEROKEE RUN x STORM CAT x SEEKING THE GOLD) |
| Div Rank: 171 | Career: 8-2-2-0 $66,150 |
| Comments: Inconsistent colt that needs to up his SP by about 10 to compete here. |
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| PP #11 – BUSHWHACKED TED(KSA) | Owner: pup |
| Odds: 6-1 | (OFFICIAL FLAME x GONE WEST x BLUSHING GROOM(FR)) |
| Div Rank: 14 | Career: 7-3-2-1 $191,995 |
| Comments: Race high 100 SP last out winning the G3 Nashua by a nose. Started career looking like a speedster, but with distance added, he started to run just off the lead. Upped his prior high in SP by 12 last out, but even with a drop today, he’s still right in the mix. If he lets the other 2 speed horses duke it out, it could be a G1 trophy that ‘pup’ adds to his mantel. |
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| PP #12 – INAUGURATION(KY) | Owner: worldwide |
| Odds: 9/2 | (MR. GREELEY x WILD AGAIN x BOLD RULER) |
| Div Rank: 1 | Career: 8-5-0-1 $457,120 |
| Comments: Another Breeders Bowl participant last out finishing 7th, but was fast closing with ‘The Beggar King’. Horse has been posting conistent SP’s in the 90’s and shows no sign of the dreaded bounce. Love the running style, and love what this horse can do in the future. |
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| PP #13 – JUST VENGEANCE(KY) | Owner: jma |
| Odds: 9/2 | (JAZIL x A.P. INDY x STORM CAT) |
| Div Rank: 3 | Career: 7-4-0-2 $351,604 |
| Comments: Our final Breeders Bowl participant finished just a head of INAGURATION and THE BEGGAR KING. Already a G1 and G2 win on the books and more in it’s future. If I have to find a fault (not many), it’s that at the longer distance last out, he was not gaining on the leaders as much as the previous to horses mentioned. Now grant it, we cut back in distance, so maybe that gap is larger if that last race were today’s distance. |
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| PP #14 – WICK(KY) | Owner: amsterdam |
| Odds: 9-1 | (STREET SENSE x FORTY NINER x STORM CAT) |
| Div Rank: 16 | Career: 6-5-0-0 $360,445 |
| Comments: Winner of 5 out of 6 with a mid-pack running style that should suit him well here. G3 win on the resume and a postive up-tick in the SP. Horse is well rested and maybe that could be the key to success. |
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| Sledge’s Analysis: As I usually do, when I look at 2yo races, I look for horses on the up-tick and stay away from potential bounce horses. Fitting the upward criteria in my eyes are three horses. Two of them are Inauguration and Just Vegeance. Inauguration is about as consistent as you can be as a 2yo and Just Vegeance appears past his bounce race and the SP’s are on the up-tick. But the horse I am looking at is Wick. The horse has been on the up-tick his last 3 races and appears to still be sitting on a big SP. He has not had that big jump yet, which means that it could come today. The “bounce” horses in play here are Highgarden and Bushwhacked Ted.
To round out the exacta and triple, i’m looking at Inauguration to get up for second, with Just Vegeance hanging on for third, but will have to old off closers The Beggar King and Devil’s Backbone take a run at 3rd. Longshot Alert: The Beggar King Good luck to everyone!! |
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