Perhaps the DPCD VIII Topicount Special (Grade I) should be reclassified as a Kentucky Local Bred contest, Eastern Division. Only four of the fourteen entrants are from outside the Bluegrass state, and all of them are foreign invaders (GB, ENG, AUS, and IRE). This year’s Topicount spectacle, as always, is a mile and a half run on the dirt course, for all horses, three years and up. The track is expected to be dry and fast, if a bit on the chilly side. And a look at the horses by post position:

PP 1 – Silvergore(KY)  (Silver Deputy x Nureyev x Carson City) – An awful lot to like about this four year old trained by bigarnie (19.6% wins) of the Jrogue stables: He’s fast:  he’s hit a 115 speed figure on dirt at this distance; he’s consistent: 17 of his last 18 have been triple digit speeds, including his last 8 in a row; he’s classy, having run consistently in a lot of Grade I races, from 10 to 14 furlongs; and finally, even as the favorite, 5/1 here seems to offer some nice value. The possible downsides: This is a field with a lot of fast horses, including a couple of them who, like Silvergore, run best on or near the lead. Can he get the lead without generating suicidal fractions? He’s run into that problem before, at both 10 and 14 furlongs, and paid the price with stretch collapses. If he gets his pace and is allowed to relax either on the front end or in a stalk, this guy is gold, not silver.

PP 2 – Taharka(KY)  (Medaglia D’Oro x Dubai Millenium(GB) x Private Account) – A tactical stalker, this charge of Willyam47 (13.3% wins)  from the Willyam13 stable group, is a monster in Grade III races, but has trouble up a couple of notches. In 6 lifetime GI tries, the only time in the money was, interestingly enough, a show check in this race last year. His other results: 9^th, 11^th, 5^th, 7^th, and 6^th. A good fit for these in style, but may not have enough to overtake some of the early speed or to outlast a couple of the stone closers here today. An honest, hardworking guy who’s going to need the race of his life to cash a check in this field. Absolutely has a shot, but I’d need to see him do it successfully in this company once first.

PP 3 – Vinfinity(KY)  (Vindication x Roberto x Damascus)  – For the longshot players, this is one intriguing colt. At first glance, he seems way out of his league with these horses based on his previous competition, and it’s still possible he is. On the other hand, he has the look of a horse that hasn’t come close yet to reaching his potential. He’s 10 of 11 in the money (10 of 10 in routes), and most of his wins didn’t even test him. Lenny1 (22.6% wins, a part of big-business Empire fame) seems to have this scratch-bred flying to the top of his form, with his 2^nd highest lifetime speed fig last time out, in his first-ever stakes (albeit an ungraded overnight one). He’ll be flying in deep stretch, and might make a profitable play in exotics. And at 22/1, he’s even tempting my money on his nose.

PP 4 – In House Slew(KY)  (Include x Chester House x Seattle Slew) – Well, umm… let’s see. It’s not often one sees a Grade I entry coming off of a $35,000 claiming race effort (and an unclaimed one at that) last time out. This 4 year old veteran of 48 races has raced with this class before, but the results have been less than stellar. In his last 5 graded races, he has been distanced once, and lost the others by 25+, 38+, 17.5, and almost 24, respectively. Greywolf9, of the Wolf Den group has saddled over 11% winners (11.4%), but this one’s probably not going to improve that record.

PP 5 – Seven More Days(KY)  (Giant’s Causeway(IRE) x Kris S. x Blushing Groom(FR)) –  The good news for this fromtheu (18.9% wins) charge (another one from the Willyam13 group) is that this strapping 4 year old is 7-2-1 in 16 lifetime dirt routes, and is coming off of a sweeping come-from-behind convincing stakes victory at this same distance last time out. The bad news is it was an owner-restricted listed stakes race, and the last two Grade I races this guy has been in have been lack-luster, beaten by double-digit lengths each time. Definitely capable on his best day, but consistency at this level has proven elusive. I’d wait to see more.

PP 6 – Chase The Sky(GB)  (Powerscourt(GB) x Conquistador Cielo x Raise A Native) –  This elegant 5 year old from the trotter5 stable (16.5% wins) rarely chases anyone. When he’s on his game, he is either on the lead or right next to it. His last race, in the Breeder’s Bowl, was textbook perfection, and if he is able to run back to it, none of these will be able to beat him. Period. The problem becomes, will he get the pace he needs without someone fighting with him to suicidal fraction?. He’ll need to watch out for favorite Silvergore, longshot Jennings, and/or contender Dance Steps to make sure none of them want to push the pace too hard. Chase The Sky has only one really effective gear, and if it’s kicked in too hard too early, he’ll be gassed by midstretch. But on his proper pace, he may be the most talented in this field.

PP 7 – Sports Guy(KY)  (Awesome Again x Capote x Fappiano) – Super1’s entry (17.7% wins) (of the famous “Super Stables”) is a hardworking and versatile 3 year old that may be in over his head here. Unlike, say, Vinfinity, Sports Guy has tried the Graded ranks and so far, come up short. That’s not to say he doesn’t stand to improve, maybe even enough to get a check in this kind of company, but until he makes that move up the foodchain, I’ll hold off on this one.

PP 8 – Jedi Ransom(ENG)  (Red Ransom x A.P.Indy x Theatrical(IRE)) – This royally-bred 5 year old brought in by Lenny28 (25.2%) is in many ways like his organization-mate Vinfinity. They’re both stone closers, and neither may have hit his peak on dirt. Jedi has more than double Vinfinity’s racing experience, but it’s only in the last 6 races that this son of Red Ransom has discovered the dirt, and he’s 4-1-0 in those last 6. One question though with the Jedi is his ability to get the full mile and a half. The farthest he’s ever gone is 10.5f, although, in his defense, both were wins, so he may just have a yen to go longer. Will be chewing up ground right alongside of Vinfinity late.

PP 9 – Forty Short(AUS)  (Encosta de Lago x Rock of Gibraltar(IRE) x Riverman) – Helenus (11.4% wins), of the Goldsmith group, saddles this Australian invader. Like most of the field here, this 4 year old with 34 races under his belt, has shown speed, although he seems to be stuck in a form rut, with well-beaten 5^th place finishes in his last three, all at different distances. If he’s able to put his perfect race together, much like he’s done at the open allowance level (115 speed fig, won going away), he’s got a shot, but that’s a big if.

PP 10 – Andrew John(KY)  (A.P. Indy x Sadler’s Wells x Seeking the Gold) – Here’s another who might be trying to rebuild his form, as his last two outings have been rough, to say the least, with a couple of 8^th place finishes in Graded outings. He does have the back class, and not that far back, having run a solid 3^rd in a Grade III three back, and before that, an even more solid 2^nd in the Grade I Smackdown 5. Both of those had this sonofaus (13.2% wins) charge flying in from near the back of the pack to almost run down the winners. He’s in a good fast group to do that again, but with this field he’ll have to start his run a bit sooner, I would think. With a perfect run, this one’s got a good chance to cash a check.

PP 11 – Jennings(KY)  (A.P. Indy x Sadler’s Wells x Kingmambo) – This holy trinity of pedigree power  brings another highly interesting longshot of a 3 year old colt, this one from the desperado5 stable (23.8% wins). Like Vinfinity, Jennings is a relatively inexperienced horse who’s adapted very well to the dirt route (he’s got 5 wins in 7 tries on dirt routes, and a perfect 4 wins in 4 trips on dirt over 10f), and he’s not been recently tested very hard either. This will change on Saturday. The main difference between this horse and infinity is running style. Jennings loves to run in front, and with some of the speed here, the fear is being locked into a duel that’ll wipe him out before the last turn. He has, two races back, shown that he can rate, and still win handily, but that was in an allowance, and when he was almost even money. There’s still a lot to be learned about this colt, and a good deal of those answers will play out in this race. Unlimited ceiling, but a couple of really tough roadblocks.

PP 12 – Dance Steps(KY)  (Seeking The Gold x Nureyev x Alydar) – When I first started handicapping this race, I kept trying to figure out why I wasn’t picking this twofus2 (14.4% win) horse (twofus stable group) to win. He’s the second-choice in the morning line (6/1), he’s got enough back class that he’s won a couple of Grade I races, and he’s speedy enough to have run a 116 speed fig at this exact distance. Then I came across this strange angle. And yes, it may in fact be one of the stupidest reasons I’ve ever ruled out a horse, so bear that in mind when making your own wager: No other horse in this field has more places than wins. In fact, the other 13 horses have a 99:44 ratio of wins to places, or 2.25 to 1. Dance Steps’ ratio is 5:8, or 0.625 to 1. This guy seems to run fast enough to just not win. He stalks, and sometimes he leads. He may, however, be the key to what the pace shakes out to be. Not gonna pick him to win, but he is likely to cash a check here.

PP 13 – Karma Police(KY)  (El Prado(IRE) x Pulpit x Rahy) – Another hardworking, if rather uneven producer in Graded races, who had no trouble in allowance races. Capable of decent speeds when needed, this redhill1 (16% wins) trainee, from the Foto Finish group, will need to step it up to a career best to manage anything better than a middle of the pack finish. He’s got versatile and tactical speed, and can press or close when needed, so pace probably won’t be the issue. Running fast enough to beat some of these horses though, might be an issue.

PP 14 – This Calling(IRE)  (Sadler’s Wells x Alydar x Buckpasser) – The far outside post doesn’t seem to be an issue for this seasoned 4 year old, as he’ll settle in towards the back of the pack early on anyways. Yet another closer here, he’ll also be counting on a torrid pace up early for the first half of the race. Arse2007 (18.4 %wins) from the Black Label Stables group has this 4 year old on a bit of a run, speedwise, looking for his sixth consecutive triple digit speed fig, and although he’s only had one win in those past 5, he has made four of them in the money. Nice chance for a nice paycheck.

The Picks:

Morning Line: 1, 12, 6, 2

Yoss Picks: 6, 1, 8, 5

My picks:

6 – Chase The Sky – able to sit just off the scorching pace, fly by the faltering leaders, and hold off the thundering closers

1 – Silvergore – Successfully fought off Jennings and Dance Steps, but didn’t quite have enough to hold off the winner.

3 – Vinfinity – traffic and jockeying among the closers were just enough of a hassle to keep this colt from a huge upset. Fastest last quarter of the field isn’t quite enough.

10 – Andrew John – Went when Vinfinity did, just wasn’t quite as fast on it down the long stretch.