DPCD VIII The Penn Test
Race : DPCD VIII The Penn Test – Grade I – $1,000,000
Track : Pennsylvania
Restrictions : Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up
Distance : A mile and one half on the Turf
Menzoberranzan set the pace last year and led the entire race until the last furlong when Sake overtook her for the win. She is back this year to defend her title, as well as third place finisher Flammen Sehen and fifth place finisher Vaanda. Most trainers had a busy few weeks shipping their horses half way around the world and preparing them for the DPCD VIII The Penn Test in Pennsylvania. I had a 5 hours plane ride, so I did a little research on the field for the 12 furlong test on the turf. Today’s race has attracted many of the top ranked long turf routers in both the 3 year and older female divisions. And the trainers list reads like a who’s who of sim trainers. There are some older mares whose names we won’t be forgetting soon, like Wicked Wench and Mon Coup, and some fresh 3 years olds who are starting to make a name for themselves. Let’s take a look at the field:
PP 1 VIN DENIAL (KY) (VINDICATION x SADLER’S WELLS x KRIS S.) bred and trained by thethumb3 (The Empire – Bored to Death, 22%) Odds: 13 to 1
First we have Vin Denial, a 4 year daughter of Vindication. She is definitely an early speedster and there are quite a few in the race, so she will have a fight for the lead. Her inside post position should be beneficial for getting a good start out of the gates. And she is going to need a great start to grab that lead because all of her 11 career wins have come wire to wire. What is impressive is that most of her recent races have been at an even 2 miles and her speed figures have been comparable to horses racing 10 to 12 furlongs. At the end of the day I think Vin Denial might be joining the Million Dollar Club, she is just $90,000 shy. My biggest concern for an in the money finish for her is the decreased distance.
PP 2 COZZY COCOA (KY) (COZZENE x SWAIN (IRE) x MIESQUE’S SON) bred and trained by nyrangers (Smokeglack Stables, URC REZZZZ, 12%) Odds: 18 to 1
Cozzy Cocoa is one of only 4 horses in the field coming into today’s race with a stakes win last out. That race was Cozzy Cocoa’s first stakes win and first triple digit speed factor with a 106. Trainer Smokeglack, prominent member of the Universal Racing Club and 80’s music chat room trivia master, has been patient with her training. After her first 4 unimpressive starts she raced in a maiden claimer, but has been showing steady, albeit slow, improvement since then. She has tried graded company once before, but this is still a jump in class for her and she will be sandwiched in the middle of the not only the forth (Vin Denial) and second (Sake) ranked long turf fillies and mares, but she is boxed in by number 3 (Mon Coup) and number 1 (Kantia) as well. I think she has what it takes to races at this level, but is definitely in a tough spot for this race.
PP 3 SAKE (KY) (DYNAFORMER x DANZIG x ALYDAR) bred and trained by 2tohold (More Evil Than The Evil Empire!, 15%) Odds: 5 to 1
Sake is here to see if she can take home the Penn Test title again this year (called the Penn Oaks last year and limited to only 3yos). She went into last year’s race as the favorite and won in 2 minutes 30 seconds. This year Sake, a scratch bred daughter of Dynaformer, is the second favorite. She won two G1s late last summer, but those were her only wins since the Penn Oaks. She is trained at More Evil Than The Evil Empire!, represents the Bargain Bred Racing Series and is one of three fillies sent by the Super stables. In her last two wins she has run just off the pace and top Pennsylvania jockey, J Piotrowski, will need to take into consideration that she is surrounded by the early speed and to save some for the stretch. She is looking good for another win here.
PP 4 MON COUP (IRE) (MONTJEU (IRE) x KINGMAMBO x SEATTLE SLEW) bred and trained by lasthope1 (Dixiedotco Racing, 26%) Odds: 10 to 1
Superstar Sim trainer Dixiedotco has entered Mon Coup representing Pastures of Green. Mon Coup was the winner of the Breeders Bowl FM Turf in 2008, in what may unfortunately be the height of her career. She has only won 2 since then, one G3 in February and a conditioned allowance last out. Early in October simmers race to use her dam, Grade A mare Seattle Hit, although Mon Coup is her only graded winner. In most of her wins Mon Coup was a late runner, but last out she was part of the early speed. Going back to a late running style might be helpful in this field with a lot of early speed.
PP 5 KANTIA (JPN) (ALKAASED x SHAPREN UP (GB) x RIVERMAN) bred and trained by bellissimo (Rafa Stables, 14%) Odds: 3 to 1
Kantia is the morning line favorite and one of two horses sent by Rafa Stables, who are representing Minnesota Downs. Kantia is not only the number one ranked horse from Alkassed’s first crop of horses in 2007, but she is number one in the long turf older fillies and mares division. And she carries an impressive race record. Of her 20 turf starts she has won 11 times and only finished out of the money 3 times and that was just barely out of the money in 4th place. Kantia is also a 4 time graded winner, but a grade one win has eluded her so far. She has an extraordinarily impressive resume and she looks to be in good form coming into this race. Her last three races were against the boys, so I expect a good race from her here against the girls. She is also the only horse who didn’t have to travel halfway around the world for this race; she was already in the states. She is the first of our late runners and she is hoping all the early runners wear themselves out fighting for the lead so she can cruise past them in the stretch. She looks tough to beat.
PP 6 VEGAS FREAK (KY) (EMPIRE MAKER x SHARPEN UP (GB) x GREY DAWN II) bred and trained by lenny11 (The Empire – Slightly Less Evil Everyday, 22%) Odds: 26 to 1
In post position 6 we have the first of our 3 year olds and the second entry from The Empire. Vegas Freak started strong and hasn’t slowed down. In her 11 career starts she has won 6 and earned almost a half a million for The Empire. Earlier in the week while researching the field I noticed The Empire’s motto was “Slighly Less Evil Everyday”. The Empire is still winning at an impressive 22%, so the trainers of all the horses left in the dust may disagree that it is slightly less evil everyday. I wouldn’t know how those trainers feel because my horses aren’t left in the dust behind The Empire’s winners, they are left in the dust of the horses left in the dust of the horses left in the dust by Lenny’s horses. Later on in the week after Vin Denial was entered (post position 1) I noticed that The Empire had changed the motto again to, “Bored to Death”. I guess if I had to watch my horses win over and over again I would be bored too. Anyway, back to the horse at hand, Vegas Freak. She is the 2009 winner of the G1 Adelaide Oaks where she put up her career high speed of 99. I think she can break the century mark here, although this will be her first time racing against older horses and there are some pretty intimidating older horses her today. She is a long shot here, but I think she has a very bright future, unless she dies of boredom.
PP 7 GAI (KY) (CRYPTOCLEARANCE x SADLER’S WELLS x HABITAT) bred and trained by Tulloch (Tulloch Stables, 11%) Odds: 9 to 1
Gai flew past 9 other horses last out and was crowned winner of the G3-The Flying Filly. Trainer Tulloch entered her here in an attempt to win her first Grade 1. She is the second graded winner out of game dam My Island Home and is ranked second for Cryptoclearance’s 2006 crop. Gai has been alternating between triple digits speed factors and wins or close finishes with uninspired races and she needs the break that pattern if she wants to be in the mix here. She is also going to find a lot of competition in the stretch.
PP 8 FLAMMEN SEHEN (GER) (MONSUN(GER) x IN THE WINGS (GB) x SHIRLEY HEIGHTS) bred and trained by reacher (Given Stables: Fire and Blood, 23%) Odds: 13 to 1
Next we have a 4 year old scratch bred daughter of Monsun. Like Gai next to her, she has been in an alternating pattern of wins and poor showings. Unlike Gai though, she is due for a win according to this pattern. She raced here last year and finished third. She also finished behind Sake in the 2008 Breeders Bowl FM Turf Distaff. Flammen Shehen had an amazing 3 year old campain, finishing in the money in all but two of her turf starts and winning stakes and graded stakes (G2 and G1). Since then she has been inconsistent, but she definitely can win in the class and at this distance.
PP 9 WICKED WENCH (IRE) (MONTJEU (IRE) x BLUSHING GROOM (FR) x NUREYEV) bred and trained by tesio (Galileo Stables, 18%) Odds: 8 to 1
Wicked Wench is the only 6 year old in the race and comes in with impressive experience. She has raced in the Breeders Bowl twice (her best finish was 4th), the Equinics, and is a multiple G1 winner. Wicked Wench, trained by Galileo Stables from Blazing Saddles, is also the reigning Queen of the Yabba Dabba Doo Handicap (2 wins and a place). If you are going to be Queen of a race doesn’t the Queen of the Yabba Dabba Doo Handicap sound better than King of the Fainting Goat Nightmare Stakes (4204) or the Queen of the Toilet Scrubbers Anonymous Stakes (4204)? She is not in the best form coming into today’s race, she hasn’t won since August, but I hope she has another G1 victory in her. She didn’t race last year in the Penn Oaks (it was restricted to 3yos), but she ran a 12f G1 in Florida on the same day as last year’s DPCD and won it in the same time as last year’s winner Sake. If she is on her game she will definitely be in the mix.
PP 10 FLAMBARDS (AUS) (ELVSTROEM (AUS) x GENEROUS (IRE) x ELA-MANA-MOU (IRE)) bred by fats and trained by chop (Bush League Stables, 15%) Odds: 23 to 1
I have heard people say that if a horse doesn’t break his maiden within the first two tries on a surface that chances are it will never win a graded race. It took Flambards 9 attempts to break her maiden for her trainers at Topicount Stables, but since then she has been on fire. She won easily in her first try against winners and finished third in her first stakes race. Last time out she handled the step up in class to graded company with ease winning the G1-The Vicky Oaks. And it was not an easy field, there were 7 graded winners and 2 other stakes winners in the 11 horse field. In that 13f race she put up a career high speed factor of 109, which is also the highest last time out speed for the entire field. I think Flambards is the 3 year old with the best chance of winning this one.
PP 11 ARTISTE (KY) (GHOSTZAPPER x CRYPTOCLEARANCE x EL PRADO (IRE)) bred and trained by super7 (More Evil Than The Evil Empire!, 15%) Odds: 11 to 1
Next we have More Evil Than The Evil Empire’s second entry. If the Evil Empire is getting a slightly less evil everyday does that mean that More Evil is getting slightly more evil everyday or slightly less evil? Artiste is coming into the race off two disappointing G1 attempts. Both were at longer distances and although 12 furlongs is long for most, perhaps she didn’t like 14 or 16 furlongs. She has already won a G1 (The Sydney Oaks) at 12 furlongs, so the return to a distance she likes may help her out here. Artiste is a deep closer and doesn’t mind letting the others horses get well ahead of her before she puts on the speed. This is a very nice looking filly,ranked third among 3yo in the long route division and definitely nothing to complain about, but I just don’t see her winning here.
PP 12 VAANDA (KY) (HENNESSY x ALLEGED x NASHUA) bred and trained by zoshka (Rafa Stables, 14%) Odds: 6 to 1
Vaanda is the second entry from Rafa Stables. I don’t see Rafa on the message boards or in the chat room, but if you are looking at some of the top turf races in the sim, you are likey to see a horse from Rafa Stables there. Vaanda won her first graded race two back at this distance at the G3-Royal Princess. Although it was a small field, she did beat Sake, the favorite in today’s race. She is a scratch bred daughter of Hennessy and is the top horse from Hennessy’s last crop of 2 year olds. She is one of two early speed horses to draw an outside post position, but she is in great form coming into this race and should be in the mix here.
PP 13 COCKTAIL HOUR (KY) (WAR CHANT x FAPPIANO x PLEASANT COLONY) bred by and trained by super20 (More Evil Than The Evil Empire!, 15%) Odds: 14 to 1
Cocktail Hour! It is 7:20 pm, it is cocktail hour! I would have a margarita, but Desperado stole my tequila. Cocktail hours rounds out the field and is another up and coming 3 year old. She is the top horse from War Chant’s 2008 crop and the third ranked 3 year old long turf router. She was red hot the first half of the year with 2 G1 wins and a G2 win. She has been struggling recently, going winless since July. Her wins were at 11 and 12 furlongs and she hasn’t raced that since July, so perhaps coming back to 12 furlongs will get her back into form. Cocktail Hour is Super’s third entry in the race, but I think their best bet for a winner is with Sake.
I think this is going to be an exciting race and I can’t wait to watch how it plays out. Since I said that I didn’t see Artiste winning she will probably end up in the winner’s circle. I expect Vaanda and Sake to fight over the early lead and I think they will be hard to catch. So, Sake for the win, Kantia to place and I will go out on a limb and say Flambards to show. Good luck and happy racing. J