Only eleven starters will line up for this year’s renewal of the Sterile Mile, but it looms as a really good race, as evidenced by the early market. Want to back a roughie? Well, you’d best look elsewhere, because the outsider of this field, Colorful Degree, will return you just 12/1, and, although stepping up in class, is racing in very good form. At the top of the Market, Alypoint, is extremely backable at 9/2. So, in a nutshell, if you think you can spot the winner, there’s a handy payday awaiting, but finding that winner in such an even field is going to be a challenge.
The Sterile Mile is a time honored sim event, dating back to 2000. Hard times have seen the purse cut from $450,000 for each of the first nine runnings, to just $300,000 this year. Has that diminished the field quality? Top qualifier, Juillet Blues, is ranked # 3 in the division at present, but then it’s a drop to # 24 to Atlantic Bolt, second on the order of entry. Both these runners are ranked in the three year old division. The favorite, Alypoint at # 36 is the highest ranked older horse.
Anyway, one of these runners will join the honor roll for this event, which includes Duke Ali, Malt Capote, Full Volume (who beat Volotile Nijinsky), Kiki’s Storm Opera, Holiday Hostage, Unprecedented, Arno Hollandia, Wooden Minister, and last year’s winner, Sahara Desert.
Due to the very even feel of the overall field, and the fact that they are all established, quality dirt milers, I’m going to put more stress on previous, recent Graded achievements than on raw speed numbers or strike rates, so apologies in advance to those runners with horses are doing wonderful things at lower levels, if you feel I’m failing to give your charges full credit.
Let’s get to that early market:
9/2 – Alypoint
5/1 – Chalk Eater, Telesio
7/1 – Oishi
8/1 – Sisson’s Gulch, Juillet Blues
9/1 – Trie Master
10/1 – Atlantic Bolt, Kenobi
11/1 – Power Ranking
12/1 – Colorful Degree
Just a small aside before we look through the runners in betting order. In these times of heightened interest in State-bred racing, only the outsider in this field, Colorful Degree, is not a Kentucky bred. Now to business:
9/2 – # 6 – Alypoint – He’s earned the top billing in the early market with a string of consistent triple digit speed ratings which encompass his last dozen outings. From about this time last year he strung three consecutive victories together, including the G2-Orangeton Handicap in January. Since then he’s won just two of seven, both allowances, but was second to Sisson’s Gulch, three runs back in the G2-Prims Memorial. This is just his second run at the ultimate level, having run fifth here, but on affected ground, in the G1-Cosmopolitan Handicap last May. Telesio finished in front of him there, and they meet again here. Hoofhearts can come to the races with confidence this week, knowing the horse will likely run the trip in 1.34 or better. He’s a last start winner and, once again, this scratchbred son of Point Given / Alydar / Graustark will be a strong chance.
5/1 – # 2 – Chalk Eater – If we thought Alypoint had a handy string of triple digits (which he does), how do we measure this blokes? His last seventeen….that’s right, seventeen, races have all resulted in triple digit speed ratings. My first question, given that half a dozen of them have been 110 or better, is; Why has it taken so long to advance to serious competition? Not only is this his first ever attempt at Grade 1 company, it’s the first time he’s faced any sort of Graded competition since his early three year old days. And therein lies the biggest ask when assessing his chances this week. Does he possess the class? A son of Kingmambo, based on the multiple stakeswinning High Limit (Seattle Slew / Summer Squall), this four year old colt’s record is not dissimilar to that of his progenitor, albeit with a (so far) inferior bank balance. With his undoubted talent, I’d have expected to have seen him racing higher, sooner. But Chilimac is the trainer making the decisions. If he handles the jump in class, he’s got the speed to be in the mix.
5/1 – # 4 – Telesio – Socalman’s scratchbred son of Bernardini / Mr. Prospector / Nijinsky II is yet another of the top fancies coming into this top quality event off achievements at a lower level. But at least this bloke has been mixing it with higher recently, and we have a better gauge into his class. It’s of some concern that he’s raced in Grade 1’s half a dozen times, and that his best finish was third in The Cosmopolitan Handicap, on rain affected Ground. However, perhaps a better guide comes from the G1-Smackdown in August. On that occasion he ran fourth in a field of nineteen. Like the others highly regarded in early betting, he’s coming to this with a string of triple digits in recent racing. In this case the number is ten, backing up the thought that all of these runners are consistent and capable. I’m a tad worried with the overall Grade 1 figures, but we know he can run the time. He’s won his last two (ungraded stakes and allowance), so he’s in top form. A repeat of his run in the G3-The Chester West Handicap here in May, when he stopped the clock in 1.33.4, will see him right up there with the contenders
7/1 – # 11 – Oishi – They say that some horses reproduce their peaks at the same time each year. If that’s the case, then the opposition needs to be very wary. In the last week of November, 2008, this colt went to Arizona for an ungraded stakes race. Perhaps it’s no big deal that he won it. But the fact that he won it in 1.32.8 is a very big deal. No other horse in this event has matched that effort, and it happened exactly one year ago. Like those we’ve already covered, he’s another with a mammoth string of consecutive triple digits, this runner’s string stretching to sixteen. That’s the good news. Very worrying for the stable and supporters is his Graded record. Back in March he ran an impressive second in the G3-Razorback Cap, registering a 117 in defeat, but five other Graded tries have all been far from memorable. A son of Forestry, he’s the second Graded placed offspring of Fetti50’s talented broodmare Zia The Second (Seeking the Gold / Alydar), the other being Luciano (Awesome Again). There’s no doubt he goes fast enough. But can he produce it at this level of competition?
8/1 – # 7 – Sisson’s Gulch – We’re getting down in the betting a tad, but certainly not down on quality. This runner boasts a Graded win in recent memory, the first horse we’ve covered thus far to do so. It was back in July, in Sweden’s G2-Prims Memorial, and he beat the favorite for this, Alypoint, on that occasion. Unlike those ranked above him in betting, he doesn’t enjoy a long, unblemished string of triple digit speed ratings. But there are excuses. We can hardly call 99 a failure, and the other was an unsuccessful experiment to see if he may want more ground. He’s a son of Alderberan, second foal of the multi (multi, as in 14) stakeswinning mare Gulch on the Gulch (Danzig / Gulch). Binzaman03 may be concerned with the possibility of the ‘maturity curve’ approaching as he’s now had more than thirty starts, but he’s Graded placed at his most recent run, and a repeat of the Sweden run will see him fighting for the trophy.
8/1 – # 9 – Juillet Blues – This scratchbred three year old, carrying the blood of Gone West / Blushing Groom / Northern Dancer, is the top qualifier for this race, and has earned that ranking with a pair of Grade 1 victories in this racing season. His successes both came in highly valued events, the first of which was the G1-California Derby, a Bluegrass Derby automatic entry feature. He didn’t quite measure up to the Triple Jewel races, but a let-up saw him resume as good as ever. He won a soft allowance on return, before the winning a Grade 1 at the prestigious Smackdown meet, with Atlantic Bolt, a contender in this, running fourth. But perhaps we should be concentrating on the most recent form. He ran only fourth at his most recent race. But fourth in what? The G1-Breeders Bowl Dirt Mile. That was his first venture into open aged competition. The three who finished ahead of him are all older, and two of them have multi million dollar bank balances. He was beaten just over a length in one of the season’s major events. He’s more than established his class, won a couple of recent races at this trip and this Simsters4 colt arguably has the most upside of any runner in the field.
9/1 – # 5 – Trie Master – Although this five year old has the weakest strike rate in the event, with just four wins from thirty, he also has one of the better recent achievements from his victory four starts back in the G3-Salvation Mile. That New Jersey feature was taken out in 1.33.6, a time which, if repeated, should be competitive here. He’s also the owner of a fairly impressive string of double digits, with the only blemish in a dozen starts being a 99 in August. It’s his long dry spells which cause concern. He’s been know to go more than a dozen runs without winning, so we can’t be confident he’ll recover from his three most recent unplaced starts. A son of the underrated Mizzen Mast, he’s the best of four progeny of dual Grade winner Triestar (Old Trieste / Seeking the Gold). Goody5 has tried everything to get that winning rate up, even risking him for a tag at one stage. He’s a recent Graded winner, so he deserves respect, but he’s also unreliable and therefore probably not a betting proposition.
10/1 – # 1 – Atlantic Bolt – Another three year old, his formline is arguably much stronger than his price might otherwise suggest. Like most of the runners here, his best is going to be good enough to make him a chance, but his best doesn’t occur as often as we would hope, especially is we are considering supporting him with hard earned betting money. He’s a Graded winner from earlier in the season, having taken out Ohio’s G2-Buckeye Derby in May. That win was sandwiched between two Graded seconds, so he’s established his class at Graded level. He won a mile stakes race two starts back, so his recent form also stands up to scrutiny. He’s a son of Stormy Atlantic, from Wer Zuletzt Lacht (Rahy / Lyphard), the second foal of a Bigarnie stakeswinner. His three prior attempts in Grade 1 have resulted in a fourth of seventeen, eighth of fourteen and eighth of ten, so he cannot be approached with confidence here. Like so many others, if this is to be his day, he’s got the talent.
10/1 – # 10 – Kenobi – A scratchbred son of Sky Mesa / Private Account / Riverman, this colt hasn’t won a route race since taking out his maiden at his second start. Having said that, he’s won two races over seven and a half, including a stakes, from his last three runs, and his most recent Graded route attempt was worthy of a closer look. So let’s revisit that particular race. In July, in California, the G2-San Dimas was held over eight and a half furlongs. This four year old colt ran second and registered a speed rating of 112. We’ve mentioned already that he’s won two races since, so overall the recent formline is none too shabby. On the other side of the coin; he’s never contested a Grade 1 before and his last race resulted in a mid-field finish. I feel Hewett’s entry can safely be categorized with the majority of this field. The form isn’t strong enough to inspire confidence, but if he’s on his best game, he can give it a fair shake.
11/1 – # 8 – Power Ranking – The most lightly raced runner taking place in this event, it fair to say that he also the most scope for graduation to higher levels. He’s had a couple of earlier tilts at Graded racing and, while not disgraced, has been unable to take home a trophy. But it may well simply be a matter of trying to fly too high, too early. Given his last couple of runs at a lower standard, he’s certainly earned another attempt at the big time. Let’s look at his last four, ignoring the eleven furlong failure. Four starts back he ran third in the G3-Colorado Sophomore Classic. Then the ‘race too far’. Then wins at each of his last two. Last start he posted a 116 comfortably taking out an ungraded stakes race in New Jersey. It goes without saying that a repeat of that speed rating will see him in the mix at the business end of this. Ticketman0 scratchbred this three year old, using the blood Awesome Again / Danzig / Secretariat. It’s a big step up to Grade 1 competition, but I feel there are shorter priced runners with less enticing formlines.
12/1 – # 3 – Colorful Degree – If sim horses are allowed to have complex issues, then this runner is entitled to one. The bookies regard him as worthy of the least respect of any runner. His opponents are probably looking down their long noses and refusing to socialize, as he’s the only one of their number not born in Kentucky. But, all that aside, what are his chances? Overall, his formline is possibly a tad shy of the ideal Grade 1 preparation. He’s had four previous tries at Graded competition, and while he’s been unable to win, he’s taken home a check in three of them. In fact, he’s taken home a check in all but one of his seventeen starts. Ramo bred this three year old colt by sending the part-owned maiden mare Senorita Color (Mr. Greely / Bend Again) to Dansili. Her fourth foal, he’s by far the most successful. I can’t see him toppling a couple of those which are more respected in the market, but he’s a last start winner and he’s consistent. A top run will not surprise.
Summary: While there are a couple of runners who, if they were successful, could be described as causing an upset, there is not a single runner incapable of putting in a winning effort. Which makes picking a winner something of a task. But, that’s what we’re here to do, so here goes:
Juillet Blues – Class…Potential…Class…Great Value…More Class
Sisson’s Gulch – Consistent, and another representing betting value.
Power Ranking – Plenty of upside and, once again, great value.