Double F Memorial
It’s late November. Do older runners still have an advantage over three-year-olds? That’s one of the questions that may be answered as four of the best young colts take on older in the inaugural running of the Grade I Double F Memorial.
The race has attracted a predictable strong field, full of very fast runners, full of lots of early speed, full of lots of closing speed, full of established class, full of up and coming stars, and just generally full of it.
Here is a look at the field:
PP 1 MAMBO HUNTER(KY) (KINGMAMBO x DEPUTY MINISTER x A.P. INDY) bred and trained by barn25dog (The Dog Pound, 17%) Odds: 7-1
As he matures, this regally bred three-year-old is showing tremendous versatility. Early this year, he captured five wins in seven grassy starts. Veteran trainer and breeding guru owner took a chance and moved him to dirt. He responded with four wins and a third in his dirt races, all run faster than anything he had done on the grass. With the breeding, you wonder why he is sprinting, but of course he is: he keeps winning. Last race was his first against older and he ran a very respectable third against a tough Grade III field. His strategy will be to rally from mid-pack.
PP 2 BETTER FORGOTTEN(ENG) (BEAT HOLLOW (GB) x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x DANZIG) bred and trained by 4stardave (Flagdown Stables, 14%) Odds: 9-2
Late in his three-year-old season, this colt was running in claimers. He’s matured into a dangerous runner in overnight stakes and now, in his 28th start, will try a graded stake for the first time. The class rise should not be taken lightly. In his four stakes wins he has finished in front of exactly one graded winner. While that may not be a good sign, it is worth noting he is four for four lifetime and earned his biggest speed figures at this distance.
PP 3 HAWK UR STUFF(IRE) (HAWK WING (IRE) x A.P. INDY x DANEHILL) bred and trained by unreal (Jeff’s Thoroughbred Club, 20%) Odds: 6-1
The number one ranked three-year-old was originally scheduled to run elsewhere, but switched to this race when it came up short. There is always a question of how well a three-year-old can compete against older, but it’s late November – not many handicappers think it’s much of an issue this late in the year. His speed figure last race is the fastest in the field, and that makes the 6-1 odds look generous. He’s been in the money in 12 of his 13 starts, but he’s been just as likely to finish second or third as to win. Expect a rally.
PP 4 VALE OF ARRYN(KY) (DISTORTED HUMOR x SKY MESA x FAPPIANO) bred and trained by upperhand (Given Stables: Fire and Blood, 21%) Odds: 8-1
It’s been three weeks since the Breeders’ Bowl. You might expect the ones that came out of that race well to start showing up in graded sprints. Vale of Arryn is the first of two here that exit that race. The four-year-old gave the winner all he could handle into the stretch before fading to a respectable 5th. He’ll face some early pressure from the outside, but he deserves respect here, and maybe with respect to class, he deserves a bet.
PP 5 STAIRWAYTOPARADISE(KY) (PINE BLUFF x DYNAFORMER x TOM ROLFE) bred and trained by sparadise (Tulloch Stables, 11%) Odds: 9-2
This five-year-old is the highest ranked older horse in the race, and like the one just to his inside, he exits the Breeders’ Bowl Sprint. He trailed Vale of Arryn throughout that race, yet is deemed favored over that one in the morning line. Stairway certainly hasn’t ducked any challenges. This is his tenth straight graded race, and he’s been running in some of the most prestigious sprints in the world: The Breeders’ Bowl, The Bringer, The Sand Castle. And he contracts the services of the 28% jockey. The only concern is that his form is in a downward cycle. His last two finishes were out of the money, and that hasn’t happened since pet rocks were the fad.
PP 6 SULTAN(KY) (GRAND SLAM x WILD AGAIN x NASHUA) bred and trained by ovidious (Ovidious Stables, 14%) Odds: 10-1
Even if there is no disadvantage to being a three-year-old against older, this one’s chances look poor. The lifetime-best 107 speed figure he posted last time looks nice until it is compared with all the 110+ figures in the field. Last time out against a weak overnight field he could not hold on to a comfortable early lead, despite being a heavy favorite. He’s tried graded stakes three times so far, and those three races were his only time out of the money. Sultan is still young and not over-raced. Expect very nice things from him down the road.
PP 7 CRANKY SQUIRREL(KY) (MARIA’S MON x A.P. INDY x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred by epic, tained by isitingood (Pierchinski Stables, 16%) Odds: 3-1
I’ve been in the chat room many times, but I don’t ever recall seeing sim-great Squirrel cranky. Anyway, this four-year-old is favored today based on several very big speed figures. Two races back he finished in front of the number 5 horse in the Grade I The Old Name. Three and four races ago he won for fun in restricted company. Sometimes we downplay restricted races, but the GR Simsters’ Grade I’s are legitimate. He may run last early and rely on his huge kick. If his connections are hoping for a speed duel, they look like they’ll get their wish. Major and obvious chance.
PP 8 GOLDEN SILK(KY) (A.P. INDY x STORM CAT x SEEKING THE GOLD) bred and trained by muninn240 (Tees Stables, 14%) Odds: 11-1
Is there a more expensively bred horse out there? In his first race ever, he finished a close-up fourth in a full field. That’s the last time he’s been out of the money on dirt. Connections decide he is ready for the very big time. This is his first graded stakes and his first against older. He may well handle the challenge – he’s handled everything else he’s faced. He’s improving rapidly and we certainly haven’t seen his best yet. We’ll wait a bit on this budding star, but we can’t fault anyone who jumps on this bandwagon now.
PP 9 XMAS PAST(KY) (GHOSTZAPPER x GONE WEST x NIJINSKY II) bred and trained by pbcash (The Empire – Slightly Less Evil Everyday, 20%) Odds: 8-1
Lenny has said he likes it better when his horses are not chosen in the BTB. We have no problem making him happy here. Xmas’ best races were well in his past. He hasn’t threatened in a stakes race since July, and if he faces early pressure he has a habit of folding like a lawn chair. He’s going to face early pressure here. And the last time he won a race this short was, well never.
Conclusion: We’ll go for value: Vale of Arryn / Hawk Ur Stuff / Cranky Squirrel. The last time I correctly picked a sim-race was 1973, as far as I recall.