The Powerful Sun G II

PP1 SATRUS(KY) 9/1 bagur- 30-9-4-2 (753K)

First up we have a five year old son of War Chant out of a B-rate Forty Niner mare with thirty career starts.  He is taking to the track in his eleventh try against graded company and does have a win to show for it.  His form is pretty darn good right now coming off of a nice second place in G II Oak Leaf Plate last time out.  What makes this horse a bit unusual is that he is equally good from five to seven furlongs, which is a very nice attribute to have considering the scarcity of graded turf sprints.  A top speed figure of 114, and a top of 108 at this distance puts him right in the mix.  This race is up for grabs and he has a shot this week.  He is generally a deep closer and should be flying at the end.  A normal performance this week will not be enough, he needs to fire huge to have a shot.  

Predicted finish: 6^th, not sure his best will be quite good enough, but it could

Pace: Deep closer, will be in the back early and should be flying if he fires.

PP2 LOOKOFEAGLESMYARSE(KY) 16/1 baracoon- 28-8-7-4 (339K)

Next up in post position two we have a scratch bred five year old son of Forestry out of a Kris S. mare.  The last race run by this guy looks like an injury may have occurred and is making his first start back.  He ran a speed figure of 56 and was laid off since January 26, so we will go with the injury.  He most likely needs a race under him before he is in top form, so this race may end up being a throw out race in the future.  This will be his third crack at graded company with the neither of his first two tries resulting in a paycheck.  He is consistently good at this distance and if he was in top form could have an outside shot to hit the board, but I do think he needs a race to get back into his previous form which was pretty good.  I would look for him to be sitting just behind any early speed in a mid pack stalking position, but could be closer if there is a soft pace which could happen.  

Predicted finish: 9^th, needs a race after the injury and long layoff.

Pace: Mid-pack stalker.  Could be closer if no early pace.

PP3 LORGAN(KY) 11/1 mindiarte- 22-6-7-3 (219K)

In the post three we find a four year old son of Flower Alley out of a D-rated Pulpit mare.  This is an interesting horse that seems to be coming into outstanding form, and is taking his first crack with graded company.  He his coming off of two straight stakes wins having career best speed figures in both.  Like I said I love his form right now, but he is going to have to top his career best speed figure for the third race in a row, and that would be unlikely.  I would suspect we are going to see a bounce this week, and should set him up for a nice summer campaign.  The fact is his career best 109 of last race could be enough this week, but I do not think, so and I just do not think he can run a 111ish this week after back to back monster performances.  Another horse that should be mid-pack early and running late if he has a move in him. 

Predicted finish: 12^th, but I would not be shocked to see a check being cashed this week.  Will be better in the future.

Pace: Mid-pack stalker, Should be about four back early.

PP4 FREEDOM NOW(KY) 10/1 tigereyes- 20-7-5-1(269K)

Next we have a scratch bred five year old son of Giant’s Causeway out of a Seattle Slew mare.  This guy is another horse taking the plunge in their first graded start.  He is in good form right now and seems to be getting better as the races are getting shorter, but not necessarily faster.  He does have a 110 speed figure at this distance, but his slightly better 11 was run at 7.5 furlongs.  The question that needs answered is whether his 107 winning performance is a good foundation for a monster effort this week, or sets him up for a bounce.  I do not really have an answer.  Horses rarely win their first graded try and he has not been so dominant to make me think he can be different.  This is a quality horse with great bloodlines, but I would like him better if this was his second graded start.  Look for him to be ten back early and flying late as he is one of the deep closers.  This looks like a horse that is improving and I look for better days in the future, but he does have an outsider chance at a check this week. 

Predicted finish: 7^th, Don’t think he builds off his last race, but is going to be very good in the future.

Pace: Deep closer, will be way back early.

PP5 FLASH OF DESTINY(ENG) 16/1 klaus- 16-4-5-3(370K)

In the five hole we have a four year old son of Dubai Destination out of a Theatrical mare (G-rated).  He is nice form right now after a second place finish in the Vermont is for Lovers GI with a 108 speed figure. That was a very nice effort, but the rub comes by the fact that it was at seven furlongs.  His career best speed at this distance is only a 102 and that will not get it done this week.  He looks like a sprinter that needs a little more ground, and his breeding says the same thing.  The fact that he has not finished worse than third in this last five is nice, but none of those efforts were exactly eye popping.  He is a closer that should be around nine back early, but I am not sure he makes much of a run this week.  I sure do see the look of a seven furlong specialist that is going just a tad short this week. 

Predicted finish: 13^th, needs more race track, six furlongs is not enough.

Pace: Closer, we be in the back early, but maybe just ahead of the real deep closers

PP6 SCIENTIFIC PROOF(IRE) 12/1 brightvalr- 22-7-5-1(513K)

In post number six we have a four year old son of Galileo out of a G-rated Seeking the Gold mare.  This race will mark the third graded start of his young career, and he has had mixed results in the past.  He was run primarily as a miler early in his career, but has been better since he started sprinting last spring.  His career best speed figure of 107 two races back in the G II Everclear Handicap was a very nice effort at 5.5 furlongs.  So far that is his best performance, and he might just be getting better at this stage in his career, but he is going to have to get much better this week.  Like all but about four horses this week, him winning would not be ground shaking, but it would be a large upset.  I would look for him to have a very good effort this week, but I am just not sure if his best is quite good enough.  His early placement is completely pace dependant, if the pace is soft he will be right up with the leaders, if a pace duel breaks out expect him to be further back, but not to the extent of the deep closers. 

Predicted finish: 8^th, In good form, but might not be enough.

Pace: Stalker, but could be further back if the pace is hot.

PP7 MATERIALISTIC(KY) 9/1 stormrun- 18-5-6-1(329K)

Next we have a four year old scratch bred son of Aragon out of a Lammtarra mare.  This guy has been all over the place, router, sprinter, dirt and turf have all been in play in the last year, but sprinting has been the norm as of late.  Now he has been placed on dirt and turf about equally, and I am not sure which he is better on, and frankly he is pretty good on both.  This will be his third stat with graded company with a nice second place in a G II last time out at seven furlongs.  He looks like six furlongs might be a bit short for him although he has won at the distance before.  His style sets up well for this race as he is a pure stalker and will be right there no matter the pace.  His last effort of 110 at 5.5 would be enough to give him a shot this week if he can duplicate it.  I would expect a slight bounce this week, but I do think he has found his niche, and should be in the hunt this week. 

Predicted finish: 5^th, If he runs like last race he has a real shot.

Pace: Stalker, put him in perfect position if he has a big effort in him.

PP8 CLARITY THRU SMOKE(KY) 11/1 lawdro- 20-10-2-3(598K)

Up next is a four year old son of Theatrical out of an E-rated Grand Slam mare.  In his previous six graded starts he has one win and three other top three finished including third in his last two starts.  While this horse does not dazzle with huge speed figures he just cranks out good finishes and is horribly consistent.  There is no reason to feel that he can not produce another good finish this week, and the pace sets him up well.  He can stalk or get to the front but I think that Caliposo Geisha is the speed this week, so I think he will be sitting in a stalking position.  He can not however, afford to let the speed get away which is a distinct possibility.  I would look for him to be tracking the early pace about one back and make a move if he can late.  He is not the best horse, he might be able to get a jump on the deep closers and get to the wire before they get to him.  He has a very decent shot this week. 

Predicted finish: 4^th, mild upset only with a win.

Pace: Stalker, but could be on the lead if no one else wants it.

PP9 ARTICULATOR(KY) 6/1 turbo1- 33-10-8-2(684K)

In post nine we have a beast.  This five year old scratch bred son of More Than Ready out of a Cure the Blues mare has been simply awesome so far in his career.  This is the best horse in the race, but the best horse does not always win.  He will be making his eighth graded start with two wins.  He has an eye popping career best speed figure of 114 with four other efforts topping 110.  Two races back he win the G II Oak Leaf Plate with a 108, in a very nice effort.  His last race however, was a bit troubling in that he ran a 99 and did not fire at all finishing a lackluster fourth in a pretty soft field.  An effort like that makes me think he could be sitting on a monster this week.  He is a stalker for the most part, but will take the lead if no one else has it.  I would not think he will be on the lead, as there is other more true speed than this guy.  In looking at his losses a trend emerges.  He simply must be within one of the leader or he does not get the job done.  Any further back and he seems to lose interest.  I think he does get too far back this week, but he will get a check.

Predicted finish: 2^nd, lets the lead get away, and that will be the story.

Pace: Stalker, needs to be right up with the leader or the race is over.

PP10 IT’S MY COURT(GER) 16/1 borrow2- 18-6-5-0 (198K)

In the ten slot we have a four year old scratch bred son of Monsun out of a Storm Cat mare.  This spent the majority of his early years on the dirt and only really made the switch to full time turf horse last October.  Since the switch he has had a career best speed figure of 109, and had a close second place finish in his last race in the G III Don King Buffet with a 101 speed figure.  The field in the Don King was rather soft with only one graded stakes winner in the field and the slow time does not bode well for this week.  He will be seeing a much tougher field, and he needs to at least repeat the 109 to have a shot.  Traditionally a closer which hurts him a bit this week as there are several deep closers and he is not one of the bets of that group.  This is a nice horse that belongs in this race, but all of the other really nice horses showed up too.

Predicted finish: 10^th, runs into a lot of nasty competition this week.

Pace: Closer, will be eight back or so, but I don’t think he makes much of a move.

PP11 LANQUID VICE 9/1 cassaleria- 41-11-5-8 (413K)

I see cassaleria has broken the old man out of the retirement home this week for a shot at a graded stakes win.  This ten year old scratch bred son of Unbridled out of a Vice Regent mare is making his 42 career start this week.  He has been lightly raced as of late making only his third start since November.  He has a top career speed figure of 112, but that was way way back in 2004, but had a 111 last year.  He is making only his third graded start, and has one second place finish in August of last year.  In his best efforts he is a mid-pack closer that sits around five back.  His best days are probably in the past but he is still competitive, and belongs with this group.  He is decent enough at six furlongs, but his best distance is 6.5 furlongs, and most of his big speed figures are at that distance.     

Predicted finish: 11^th, getting towards the twilight of his career.

Pace: Mid-pack, should be right smack dab in the middle of the pack early.

PP12 APPROPRIATELY(KY) 6/1 pilstables- 19-12-2-2 (1.4M)

Next up we have a 4 year old son of Pulpit out of a G-rated Storm Cat mare.  This guy has been on quite a tear as of later and is in perfect form, but perhaps too perfect.  He is coming off identical 111 speed figure wins in his last two races at seven furlongs.  The later of the two races was a graded stakes win.  He is a very impressive three of five in graded stakes and has won a G I at this distance back in August of last year against three year olds.  He is a classic stalker, but will take the lead if he must, but usually only at seven furlongs.  He does not have the pure speed to get to the front at six furlongs and should be about two or three back early.  Don’t get me wrong, this horse is very good at this distance, but I think he is much better at seven furlongs.  There is no real reason why he can not win, he is that good, but I think he get a little too far back this week, and will not quite get up.  One thing to watch for is his track position; he has only won once when he has been worse than fifth place at any call.  He needs to be in the hunt early or it will not happen.   

Predicted finish: 3^rd, Might be the best horse, but I think his best distance is a bit longer than this, certainly could win though.

Pace: Stalker, needs to be close early.

PP13 CALIPSO GEISHA(IRE) 12/1 cobbsalad- 18-8-0-1(256K)

Second to last we have the most well bred five year old scratch bred daughter of Galileo out of a Secretariat mare.  How we get a sprinter out of that…oh well who cares.  This lady is taking her second shot at the boys, the first in a graded race against the boys.  She won her only start with the men last year, and is coming into this race off of five straight victories, not really being tested in any one of them.  She is dominant right now, and belongs here among the boys.  This will be her first race at less than seven furlongs, but make no mistake she will be the pace of this race, and might find herself all alone and with the shorter distance, she steals this race.  You have come to Monte’s super gigantic monumental upset special.  There is a good chance she could be out by five half way, and if that is the case it is over because she knows how to finish a race.   She had one attempt in a graded stakes last year and faded to sixth late, but that was at 8.5 furlongs, and I do not think we see this at six furlongs.  Love this horse, love this style..winner winner.    

Predicted finish: 1^st, anybody can pick the favorite, she steals this race.

Pace: Will be flying out front and needs no one to go with her.

PP14 SARDINI(KY) 8/1 punter41- 20-7-3-2(779K)

Last we have a four year old scratch bred son of Bernardini out of a Sadler’s Wells mare.  Now this is a tough horse to pick, and I will tell you why.  He has won two graded stakes and been in the top three in all but two.  This is a horse than ran in the Breeder’s Bowl mile.  That is the problem, I simply have no idea how he sprints.  He last sprinted in August of his two year old season.  This is a top level miler who is trying a new game pretty late in the game.  I would think a race at seven furlongs first would have been in order, but what do I know?  He is a very versatile horse that can lead, stalk, or close, but I do not think he has nearly the speed to be real close, and I am not sure that he can get going soon enough to be involved much at all.  There are just so many unknowns here this week.  I personally think he is probably a throw out.  I am sure he will run  triple digit speed figure, but I think a drop from a mile to six furlongs without a stat in the middle is crazy with a horse of this talent. 

Predicted finish: 14^th, he could make me look like an idiot (not the first time or the last), he is very talented, but he is not going to like this distance

Pace: but could be way further back than he is used to.