Florida Derby Lock Race Could Cause Owners Ulcers!
Florida Derby — Derby Lock Prep Stakes
Grade I
A mile and one eighth on the Firm Turf Course
$1,000,000
All horses, 3 years old
Stakes record – 1999 – Velvet Blush, 1:48-1/5, SPF 106.211
Here we are for a huge weekend race in Florida. The weather promises to be fantastic as it always seems to be this time of year in this state and the track should be lightning fast and ready to go. We may even see someone approach the ten year old record for this race set back in 1999 by Velvet Blush. There are not many records that old in the Sim. It appears that most of the highest ranked colts came here this weekend instead of crossing the big pond to the other Lock race in Dubai. It’s funny, this time of year you have a lot of top ranked horses that flourished as two year olds only to start fading a bit as a three year old. There are also others that were just okay on the two year old campaign but are really hitting their stride right now. The latter group probably doesn’t have enough Stakes points to get into the Bluegrass Derby so these races are huge for them. One way or another it should be a really great race with lots of contenders so let’s take a look:
1 – SAMSTAG(KY) ODDS STABLE WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED EARNINGS RANK Stupor1 Stables 8/1 Stupor1 30.0% C.Romine 34 – 3 – 3 – 5 – 9 % 100 $ 160,800 39
( SMART STRIKE x NUREYEV x BOLD RULER) This nice looking brown colt jumps up to the Graded circuit for the second time for trainer Stupor1. After winning the MINE FOREST Challenge Stakes two back he just missed with a close second in the G2 FOUNTAIN OF UTE even though he went off at long odds. He had a solid 100 SPF in that race and looks to be coming on strong. He has only raced five times, beginning last fall for this Stable. He has Romine in the saddle and he has been less than efficient and that along with the fact that this horse is a late closer from the inside may hurt when it comes to traffic. Could be in the mix though.
 | 2 – MISTY WHISPER(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mano Stables | 14/1 | Vertain6 | 9.9% | M.Anderson | 24 – 4 – 0 – 3 – 17% | 94 | $ 456,440 | 11 |
( LATENT HEAT x MISWAKI x DANZIG out of MISTY WOODBINE) The 11th ranked colt at this distance just needs to put up a solid race to remain in the top 20 and qualify for the Derby. The beautiful charcoal colored three year old has been solid if unspectacular since winning a G2 a year ago. He has no wins but has remained competitive for trainer Vertain6 and the Mano Stables. He looked good on Valentines Day at the VERMONT IS FOR LOVERS G1 closing at the end over 9 furlongs. It appears that this guy could actually stretch out a bit further and may like a bit more distance. He has Anderson in the irons and he is a good one and will get the most out of this colt. He needs to bump his SPF just a bit to contend.
 | 3 – SCAT BRUSH(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolf’s Den | 12/1 | Graywolf4 | 12.3% | T.Bellows | 19 – 3 – 2 – 0 – 16% | 99 | $ 124,115 | 89 |
(SUAVE x BROAD BRUSH x STORM CAT out of SCAT U CAT) Although still looking for his first Stakes win, this colt keeps improving for trainer Graywolf4. Last time out he finished third in the G2 FOUNTAIN OF UTE with a solid 99 SPF. If he can continue to improve he has a chance to win one of the Lock races and get into the big enchilada the first Saturday in May. The Wolf’s Den Stables of Graywolf have been around a long time and certainly know how to saddle up winners. They have Bellows holding the reins and he has been really solid all year. This colt likes to close late and will be up against a couple of others that way. It could be interesting down the stretch.
 | 4 – PIT BULLY TED(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HighStable Stables | 7/1 | HighStable | 10.6% | J.Nason | 42 – 3 – 4 – 8 – 7% | 102 | $ 63,815 | 129 |
( JOHAR x PULPIT x UNBRIDLED out of PREACHTOME) Before running into a little mud last time out in the FELIPE ALOU G2, this colt was really flying for trainer and owner HighStable. He had just won two in a row including a sizzling 102 SPF at the WORLDLY PLUS MOE Stakes. Even in the mud he ran a 100 SPF and there is no reason to believe that he can’t crack that triple digit SPF again here. One slight problem is that he will be pulling jockey Nason around as he has been rather inept all year. This colt seems to have found his distance and he could use his stalking style to duck in behind the leaders and make his move in the stretch. Could be a player.
 | 5 – SANSKRIT II(ENG) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dupree Stables | 8/1 | Stallcorio | 2.7% | W.Case | 124 – 11 – 18 – 6 – 9% | 100 | $ 120,536 | 59 |
( STARCRAFT (NZ) x GOLDEN ACT x SICAMBRE(FR)) Trainer Stallcorio was definitely doing a rain dance all week as this chestnut colt really likes the muck. He can hold his own on the fast track as well but really excels on an off track as all three of his wins in the mud show. Case is in the leather and he is looking for some magic tonic as well as he has been under 10% for the year in his win percentage. This colt has the advantage of being the only front runner from the inside and that may help but I’m afraid he won’t be able to hold on without the mud to help him.
 | 6 – DEL PENN DUDE(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Topicount Stables | 8/1 | Topicountc | 15.2% | W.Marshall | 31 – 5 – 2 – 4 – 16% | 98 | $ 346,485 | 76 |
( FOREST WILDCAT x KINGMAMBO x SEATTLE SLEW out of DELPENN ROCKS) An interesting entry for trainer and owner Topicount as this will be the first time over a mile for this colt. He has been struggling a bit since last Thanksgiving and this might be a good thing in stretching him out although you would think that he would try it in an overnight Stakes or before this critical Lock race. Actually in the HUTCHINGSON G2 last time out he looked like he would have appreciated a bit more real estate at the end. They have an excellent jock up in Marshall and he will use his magic hands to pace this colt and may have him in the mix at the end.
| 7 – SEEKING THE KILLER(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lip Stables | 6/1 | Lip | 14.6% | M.Wright | 60 – 9 – 6 – 5 – 15% | 103 | $ 123,573 | 38 |
( SEEKING THE GOLD x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY (IRE) x SADLER’S WELLS out of KILLER BEE) Our Morning Line favorite for the race has impeccable breeding and speed to burn with two consecutive 103 SPFs although the last one was a close second at the FELIPE ALOU G2. Prior to that he had won three in a row and four of five and looks to really be coming on at the right time for trainer and owner Lip. He is a bit threat here and is just a bit outside that top twenty that will qualify for the Derby. A top three run here will get him in or very close and is an important step in his three year old campaign. They have Wright in the saddle and he is very solid and could bring this horse back to Winners Circle when all is said and done.
| 8 – HEARTSWIDEOPEN(LA) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richgins Stables | 13/1 | Richgins | 18.9% | L.Lamb | 23 – 2 – 2 – 0 – 9% | 97 | $ 115,290 | 27 |
( WAR EAGLE x TSUNAMI SLEW x HEART out of LARRINS LUCKYLADY) Since purchasing this horse in the auction last summer, the colt has never finished off of the board and continues to improve at a rapid pace. Trainer and owner Richgins has brought him along nicely and he appears ready to make the next big step with his first entry in Graded company. He will need to bump his SPF a bit as his best to date is a 97 last time out but that was enough to easily win the CONQUEST BACK Stakes and he seemed to ease up at the end. Lamb is in the leather and has been a bit rough this year but hopefully he and the colt can both put up a good effort and could surprise a few folks in Florida.
 | 9 – PURE SMOKE(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otistaylor Stables | 12/1 | GallupLaz | 17.4% | R.Maire | 61 – 5 – 6 – 2 – 8% | 97 | $ 253,600 | 107 |
( PURE PRIZE x PULPIT x ALYDAR out of SCABBERS) This big chestnut colt has won three Stakes races in only eight outings but has not been able to get over the hump in his four Graded outings never finishing better than fifth. Trainer GallupLaz has been trying different things but the colt seems to be awed by the competition in the Graded outings. For some reason, in the Stakes races he has seemed more of a stalker and in the Graded outings drops way back and has a hard time catching up at the end. They have Maire in the irons and he has had a hard time figuring things out this year two with only five wins in his races. Perhaps this colt will choose this race to mature and just do what he does best but if not he is destined to another middle of the pack finish.
 | 10 – DUKE OF NORMANDY(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winterfell Racing | 8/1 | Lopo34 | 16.5% | O.Barrett | 97 – 6 – 9 – 11 – 6% | 99 | $ 236,050 | 33 |
( BLUEGRASS CAT x GREEN DESERT x MR. PROSPECTOR out of PHAT PROSPECTOR) His only poor race in his nine race career was last years Breeders Bowl where he was truly uninspired and finished 11th. He has contended or won every other race he has entered and trainer Lopo34 has watched him bounce back with two Stakes wins since then. He is still looking for that first Graded win and his first triple digit SPF and could use a break out win here. He has Barrett on his back and he has been less than passable this year and that won’t help the prospects of this colt. Kind of a confusing mix of signs with this colt and I’m not sure how to read them.
| 11 – XTRA TALES(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJDStable Stables | 9/1 | EJDStable | 21.4% | A.Darling | 178 – 24 – 15 – 32 – 13% | 99 | $ 201,195 | 21 |
( TALE OF THE CAT x A.P. INDY x KRIS S. out of XTREMELY A SHOW) Another group that was hoping for some moisture on the track this weekend as the Spring rains would have heightened the chances of this colt who seems to love the mud. Trainer and owner EJDStable is in a bad spot here as his horse is ranked number 21 and really needs a good showing here or in his next race if he runs again to qualify for the Bluegrass in May. He likes to be on or near the lead and there is not a lot of early speed in this race so that should play to his advantage if jockey Darling and his magic hands can get him down on the rail early from this post. He’s had some solid outings this year but I’m afraid unless we get a freak thunder storm he may be in a bit over his head.
 | 12 – TIZ SMOKIN’ NOW(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universal Racing Club Inc. | 14/1 | FlyingTail | 12.6% | V.Gardner | 206 – 57 – 31 – 30 – 28% | 100 | $ 1,434,470 | 4 |
( SMOKE GLACKEN x TIZNOW x SLEW O’ GOLD) This beautiful dark grey colt shouldn’t have to worry about qualifying for the Derby after winning last year’s Breeders Bowl but since then he has been a bit off for trainer FlyingTail of the Universal Racing Club. He won his last race but it was a listed Stakes against a short field and he won with a slow 83 SPF with competition that he clearly outclassed. It will help having Gardner in the irons as he is the best jockey out here but it is going to take a huge bounce back for this colt to hit the board in this race. It would be nice to see him hit his stride again going into the Derby as the BB winner could certainly make things more interesting for the big race. I’m rooting for him.
 | 13 – MUMMRA(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Given Stables | 29/1 | Confessor2 | 20.4% | W.Baumann | 72 – 7 – 2 – 3 – 10% | 89 | $ 101,320 | 84 |
( LION HEART x GONE WEST x PULPIT out of GHOSTY GONE) An interesting entry for trainer Confessor2 of the Given Stables who have hopefuls in both Lock races this weekend.Although he has won half of his eight races so far, he has not raced in a Graded race nor crossed the 90 SPF speed factor yet. Unless jockey Baumann who has been solid at best this year can give him a huge boost in his speed he will be in the back half of this field at the end. He will gain great experience and would be a great story if he wins but it would be a huge upset if it happens.
 | 14 – THUNDER CRACKED(KY) | ODDS | STABLE | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | EARNINGS | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Stables | 14/1 | Super25 | 19.1% | L.Buchta | 190 – 31 – 42 – 25 – 16% | 96 | $ 407,469 | 7 |
( A.P. INDY x THUNDER GULCH x DANZIG out of VEGAS THUNDER) Since the Super Stables stretched this A.P. Indy offspring out to 9 ½ furlongs two back, he has really kicked it into gear capped by winning the VERMONT IS FOR LOVERS G1 last time out. That could translate well for this colt as his late closing style will benefit from this last post position. He also has Buchta holding the reins and he has been especially hot so far this year. This would be a great horse to put into your trifecta ticket as he may be ready to break out out generous odds from the Morning Line. He is the number seven ranked colt coming off of a Grade One win with double digit odds.
Morning Line = 7-4-1-5-6-10
Paz Picks = 7-4-14-3-1
There is lots of pressure on the trainers here as the results can really change things around one way or the other for these colts. Sometimes the horses can feel that tension and they can react differently to it. I like SCAT BRUSH to finish fourth. He is showing nice improvement but I’m not sure if he has enough yet to hit the board. I’ve just got a feeling about THUNDER CRACKED and I think he has enough to finish in the top three. Like I said, put him in your trifecta box. There are two horses on paper that look like they should go hard at each other and one should emerge victorious with a spot in the Derby locked up. I think that SEEKING THE KILLER and PIT BULLY TED are the two to beat in this race. I think that PIT BULLY TED may be a bit ahead in development at this point but I think the better jockey in Wright on SEEKING THE KILLER will be the difference and he will win the race.
Good luck to all runners!
Email your comments to pazjazz.btb@gmail.comI love to hear from you!
