Even Dozen Line Up In French Grade 3
This week
The early market this week is:
5/1 – Hoegaarden, Silent and Smooth
7/1 – Fess, Otto Haack,
8/1 – North Centaur
9/1 – Fearsome, Cousin Ed
10/1 – Six Gun City ER
14/1 – Avowhasbeenbroken
16/1 – SR Awareness
18/1 – War Game
Looking through the field in betting order:
5/1 – Hoegaarden – (Touch Gold / Storm Cat / Nijinsky) – # 1 – He heads the betting due to a consistent string of triple digit performances and a career which has seen him bank in excess of a million dollars. 2008 wasn’t all that kind to him, and he failed to recapture the form which saw him close out 2007 with a Grade 1 victory on Delpenn Day. Last year saw just two wins from ten, one ungraded stake and one allowance. On a more positive note however, he has registered triple digit ratings at each of his last ten, and comes into this off a last start second in the G2-The Al Tahiti Fort. He only needs to be close to his best to be a real threat here.
5/1 – Silent and Smooth – (Shamardal / Seattle Slew / Nureyev) – # 6 – Relatively lightly raced, and with fourteen top two placings in seventeen runs, this scratchbred four year old has earned equal billing at the top of the markets with his consistent high quality offerings. Yet to taste victory at Graded level, he’s put the foot in the door with three fine performances at the higher standard. Fourth of seventeen at Grade 1 level, fourth of fourteen in a Grade 2 and second at this class two starts back, all indicate that he’s ready for the promotion. Like his co-favourite, he’s brought home triple digits in each of his last ten, and Graded success appears inevitable, sooner rather than later.
7/1 – Fess – (Maria’s Mon – Crawfish Pie (Kingmambo / A.P. Indy)) – # 5 – A solid performer, this experienced five year old spent his first thirty five runs mixing it very effectively with allowance company, before, last time out, skipping the ungraded ranks and taking on Grade 2 company for his first attempt at the black type. And impressive he was, setting the pace in
7/1 – Otto Haack – (Seeking The Gold / NijinskyII / Storm Bird) – # 7 – Let’s ignore his first eleven starts on the dirt, where his form was more than handy, and concentrate on the last four, his only grass starts, where his form has been exceptional. Four runs. Three wins and a second. Last start an amazing win in the G2-The Jabba The Hut, where he registered a 117. There appears only one minor concern. This is the shortest (albeit by just half a furlong) turf trip he’s tried, and he likes to give away an enormous start. He’ll look hopeless at the half way. Nothing will be finishing faster. Will the post come too soon? We’ll find out.
7/1 – Credit Castle – (Castledale – Credit Busting (Sadler’s Wells / Machiavellian)) – # 10 – This talented four year old returns to route racing after scoring two Grade 1 placings from his last five runs over the shorter trips. There’s no question of his ability at this level, as his career highlights are a pair of victories in Grade 2 competitions. This will be his ninth consecutive start in Graded company, and he’s finished on the podium in half of those previous eight. With a bit of speed on early, he should be able to take a handy sit just off the pace, and could be in the ideal position to feature in the finish.
8/1 – North Centaur – (North Light / Roberto / Nijinsky II) – # 2 – Something of an unknown, as his only run against Graded company may have left connections a little perplexed, as they may well have expected a better result. His two runs prior, both in allowances, were most impressive victories which indicated a step up in class was warranted. Perhaps a tilt at the ungraded scene may have been wise, but hindsight is a wonderful thing. In any event, the experience will have done him no harm and he was far from disgraced, registering yet another triple digit rating. If he can recapture those allowance times against this class of opponent, he’s in with a real chance
9/1 – Fearsome – (Fusaichi Pegasus / Deputy Minister / Mr. Prospector) – # 3 – An ultra-consistent performer who, despite virtually always running a handy race, regularly finds a way of getting beaten. While he doesn’t enjoy the strike rate of many of his opponents here, he can never be taken for granted. Connections were clearly frustrated by his run of outs, as they returned him to the allowances last time out for a confidence builder. Prior to that, he’s gone almost a year without a win, while registering three Graded placings and a solid fourth in a Grade 1. He’s returned triple digits at each of his last eleven, and with that long awaited win now under the belt, perhaps he can repeat here.
9/1 – Cousin Ed – (Gone West – May Raise (Marfa / Raise A Native)) – # 8 – A very handy claim pick up just four starts back, this five year old has earned a black type cheque at each of those subsequent runs, despite still being eligible for Starter Allowances. He’s certainly running the types of times which make him competitive in these events, but is there that nagging question of class which prevents him from scoring the major prize? The fact that he finished third of five, and fifth of six in two of those runs, must be of some concern. Normally, when I raise these types of concerns, I end up with egg all over my face. Here we go again. He won’t win, but he won’t be far away
10/1 – Six Gun City ER – (Forestry / Carson City / Dixieland Band) – # 12 – A more than handy four year old, he’s racing consistently at a slightly lower level of late, while he has proven himself competitive at this higher level, earlier in his career. I’m a little concerned with the fact that he’s only won three races, but given that two of them were black type, perhaps those concerns are unfounded. His career highlight thus far is unquestionably his most impressive third, in a field of seventeen, at last years Equinics. He followed that up with a Graded third, so he’s no stranger to this type of competition. While I think there are a couple with stronger winning chances, he is worth considering for the exotics
14/1 – Avowhasbeenbroken – (Broken Vow – Project Ginger (Slewpy / Mr. Prospector)) – # 9 – A lightly raced four year old with an impressive strike rate. He still looks to have plenty of upside, and he wasn’t far away last start in his first attempt at Graded racing. In his ten runs on the grass, he’s never gone home without a cheque, and it’s been the winner’s share in half those appearances. Connections are not going to be the only ones lining up for a share of what looks like a most generous offering from the bookmakers as many value seeking punters will be there also. He’s definitely a runner capable of running a massive race without surprising.
16/1 – S R Awareness – (Tirol / Hard Work / Pharly) – # 4 – It’s been a fair gap between drinks for this six year old winner of half a million dollars. He’s managed just two wins in almost two years, and both of them were in allowances. I keep scouring the formpage for hope! Yes, that third in the G1-Arkansas Turf Classic was impressive, but sadly, most of the form surrounding it isn’t anywhere near as fancy. The third in the Coalminer also looks good, but it was a long time ago, and he was beaten nine lengths. Sorry, Pye, but I have to pass on this one
18/1 – War Game – (Mr. Greely / Saint Ballado / Storm Cat) – # 11 – What a shame this race isn’t being run in the rain, as that Grade 3 second may have encouraged the bookmakers to be more generous. It’s hard to argue with the quote when the records show that this four year old hasn’t won a black type race since his was a juvenile, and his last two victories came in conditioned allowances. While this colt can, on his day, return a handy triple digit figure speed rating, too many of his opponents can run even better ones on a more consistent basis. There are no hopeless runners lining up in this event, and while I can’t rate this one as a winning chance, he’s more than capable of putting in a solid performance
Selections:
Otto Haack – Can’t fault the turf form.
Avowhasbeenbroken – Still on the way up and represents great value. Across the board
Silent And Smooth – Doesn’t ever run a bad race