the Grade II Nikki Show
PP1 ROADHOUSE BLUES 5/1 twinoaks- 47-11-6-4 (1.03mil)
Starting us out this week in the number one post we have a six year old scratch bred son of Java Gold out of an Unbridled mare. He is making his eleventh graded stakes start of his long career. It has been a while since he has been competitive with graded company, but still can run. He last won a graded stakes race in November of 07, so it has been a while. He still can win a stakes race, but his best days are in the past and he is going to have trouble with this field. Can handle the distance, but eleven furlongs is probably his preferred distance. If he doesn’t fire the distance will not be to blame. When he is firing he is a closer, but not necessarily from a mile back. If he is running he should be about eight back and will be running late. If he doesn’t fire he will be eleven back and stay there. He has had enough talent in the past to win this, but I am not sure he still has it in him.
Predicted finish: 4th, has a shot but must wake up the echoes.
Pace: deep closer, but won’t be way way back.
PP2 DANZA MCABRA(KY) 19/1 shadowclaw- 16-7-3-0 (127K)
In the two hole we have another scratch bred, this being a four year old son of Theatrical out of a Gone West mare. One of the least experienced horses running this week with only sixteen career starts. This young guy has gotten faster as the races have gotten longer, but his career best speed figure of 102 might not be enough. The real question is whether this is an improving horse, or ‘what you see is what you see”. The answer I think is most likely the later. This is a horse that will win a lot of long stakes races, but I just do not see many graded wins coming. Just a step below the very best. Should show some early speed and to have a shot he must steal it. He needs to get away by his lonesome by five to even think about having a shot at a win.
Predicted finish: 6th, middle of the pack finish.
Pace: Should be and needs to be all alone out front to have any shot, the only real speed here this week.
PP3 GAI(KY) 8/1 tulloch- 25-4-5-4(597K)
Next up we have a very nice lady that is a five year old daughter of Cryptoclearance out of a Sadler’s Wells mare (D-rated). GAI is coming off a monster second place performance last time out when she fired a by far career best 110 speed figure. To assume she follows that up with a similar performance is wishful thinking. This is a quality horse that belongs with the boys, but she will bounce this week. The last race was a perfect set up for her with a freak speedball setting up the closers (I know this because the freakish speedball is mine). Her best distance seems to be shorter than this race, and has not broken 95 going longer than twelve furlongs. With three second place finishes in her last four races she certainly could hit the board, but I think a bounce of epic proportions could be in order this week.
Predicted finish: 9th, Too long with a bounce is going to make this an ugly week.
Pace: Deep closer, will be coming from the clouds late if she fires.
PP4 CENTO(ENG) 7/1 twinoaks- 18-5-6-2(138K)
In post number four we have a late blooming four year old son of rainbow Quest out of a Woodman mare (F-rated). This guy decided to wait until his ninth start before breaking his maiden, but has been getting better as the races have gotten longer. This is not unusual with a Rainbow Quest. He has had one crack at graded company which did not end well getting beat by fourteen. That race was at eleven furlongs which actually might be a bit short for him. This race could be too short as I think he is a 16 furlong guy personally. The one thing that stands out is he has never finished worse than second in a race longer than twelve furlongs. His career best 103 speed figure is not eye popping, but he consistently cranks out the 102’s and threes. I am not sure he can run big enough to win, but a top three would not be unrealistic. Another deep closer that could be 20 back early, and will be flying home the last half mile and will be in the mix at the end.
Predicted finish: 3rd, Not great but consistent at this distance
Pace: Deep closer, will need a second pair of binoculars to see in the field.
PP5 HIGH SPEED QUEST(IRE) 9/2 pegasus- 31-8-8-5(719K)
The regally bred six year old son of High Chaparral and a rainbow Quest mare (C-rated) is next in the five hole. This guy is another late bloomer that has really only stared to hit his stride in the last eight months or so. His career best 110 speed figure is plenty good along with several over 105. He has had two previous graded stakes runs winning one of them. He has not raced at this distance before, but won for fun last time out at 14 furlongs so the distance is not an issue. Of all of the horses in this race he is the most flexible. He can close or stay close if the pace is soft. Even if the pace is hot (I don’t think it will be) he will not be too far out of it. He looks poised to run a monster this week and is deserving of the morning line second status. I love this horse in this spot.
Predicted finish: 1st, nothing not to like about this guy this week
Pace: Varies, could be anywhere, but should be in a semi-stalking position four or five back.
PP6 DASSAULT(KY) 3/1 tenpins- 37-14-4-3(578K)
Next up we have a five year old scratch bred son of Ouragan out of a Dehere mare. This guy has a pattern if you want to look for it. The fact is he wins every other race, and he did not win the last race. So he wins this race right? Not so fast my friend. He is the morning line favorite and deserves to be so, but he has never run this long before. He has won at 12 furlongs several times, but I really think his best distances are in the 9-11 range, but his class gets him longer. This guy has two graded stakes wins under his belt and has a career best speed figure 114 two races ago speaks for itself. Another deep closer, but will not be real far back. If he gets more than ten back the race is over for him. In the past when he gets further then ten back he just keeps backing up and I don’t see that changing this week. I don’t think he wins this week, but it would not surprise me one bit if he did.
Predicted finish: 2nd, probably the best horse in the race this week, but a bit longer than he wants to go.
Pace: Closer, will be moving late if he moves.
PP7
In the seven post we have the very lightly raced four year old scratch bred son of Dynaformer out of Forty Niner mare. Having only eleven starts make this guy the rookie of the field, but he can run, make no mistake about that. This will be his fourth graded start, winning his first try and not coming close in the last two. The problem he has had is he just gets too far back and doesn’t get going until it is much too late. He could be 22 or further back in this race regardless of the pace. It will not be a very hot pace so he coming from the clouds style sets up pretty poorly in this race. He needs a hot pace to have a shot and he is simply not going to get it. This is certainly a horse on the improve and is getting better, but I just do not like the set up. Heck I will say he is a breeder’s Bowl horse right now, but that counts for nothing this week. Needs to be much closer to have a shot this week, but has never shown the ability to do that.
Predicted finish: 7th, Will start running about the time the race is over. Wrong style for this race set up
Pace: Deepest of the deep closers, will be 20+ back early.
PP8 PATITO(KY) 9/1 usoz- 25-5-4-5(127K)
Next up we have a four year old son of Unbridled’s Song out of a Sadler’s Wells mare (A-rated). This is an interesting horse. He runs decent enough speed figures, he can make this distance easy, but he simply can not win a stakes race. The fact that he has not won a stakes race and not he has to tangle with this crowd is a problem. There is a good chance he is in just a bit over his head. He has a career best speed figure of 105 (twice), but I doubt that is going to be enough. He has done nothing to indicate he has a break out performance in him after twenty five starts. And we have yet another deep closer that could be twenty back early. I think he drops back early and that is where he will stay. Of the closers, he is not close to the best and there just will not be any tired front runners to pass. This guy needs to win some stakes races before he can be considered in a race like this.
Predicted finish: 8th, needs some early speed and a softer race for it to end well.
Pace: Deep closer will be way back early and may just stay there.
PP9 GRAND VICTORY(IRE) 6/1 lasthope- 20-10-3-2(286K)
Lastly we have a four year old son of Montjeu out of a Kris S. mare (A-rated). Another royal bred horse out of an outstanding mare. This will be his fourth career graded start with one win and two not closes, losing by 10+ in both. I know this will shock you, but we have another deep closer to deal with. Although he has shown the ability to be close if the pace is soft. I would expect him to be ten back early, it would not be surprising if he was near the lead in a stalking position. The pace in this race should be at a crawl, and there is a chance he could get the jump on the horses that will be in another zip code half way through. He is not the best horse here this week, but the set up does give him a fighting chance at a win if he can stalk what should be pedestrian early fractions. If he can duplicate the 109 he ran two back, he could win this race.
Predicted finish: 5th, but has a real shot with the pace scenario.
Pace: Closer, but would not be shocked to see him stalking this week.