New York Heating Up in March?
New York Heating Up in March?
Sizzling Race Action in the Forecast this Weekend
Welcome to the Big Apple, home to Broadway, the Bronx Bombers, and as of this year, the inaugural “Long Island Sprint”, a Grade II Stakes race, 6 furlongs on the fast dirt for fillies and mares 3 years old and up, where 12 fillies and mares will all vie for a share of the $150K prize pool. As we drove across the George Washington Bridge from Fort Lee, NJ, stopping only to pay the toll (and prompting me again to wonder what they did with the money, since it obviously was NOT fixing the bridge), I couldn’t help thinking “Ahhh, the City That Never Sleeps, and the Sport of Kings, it really doesn’t get any better than this…”. The weather is supposed to be beautiful for Saturday, and it is, of course, P Davis bobble head Day, so bring the whole family out to the track, and who knows, we might see the birth of a future superstar. In addition to “The Long Island Sprint” Grade II Stakes, there is also the Grade I Stakes “The Hand Maiden’s Indulgence” on the card for this week, so I’m sure everybody can find something to get excited about. Anyway, let’s take a look at “The Long Island Sprint” in a little more detail.
Wow, the handicappers must have been pulling their hair out on this one, folks. Despite having all week to work on the numbers, there is still no clear cut morning line favorite in this race. I guess this week they decided to take a break, and leave it up to you, the fans, to decide who your favorite is. Well, that sounds like a challenge, doesn’t it? Let’s break the race down and see what we can see…
The first thing we find is that 3 horses are all going off at 5-1. The first of these is Elegy (KY), a 5 year old homebred brown mare out of A.P. Indy x Forty Niner x Danzig, who is coming out of the 6 position. She is trained by stable Chevrolet, and her game Dam is Future Shock Too. Elegy is her only foal to be a Stakes winner so far, and she has obviously followed in her mama’s footsteps when it comes to sprinting. Elegy has won 11 of 35 lifetime starts, and all these wins have come in sprints. She has placed 3rd or better in an astounding 23 of her 35 starts, bringing home over 300K to her stable. She has not won yet at the Graded Stakes level, and will look to change that today. She is coming off 3 wins in her last 5 starts, and although 2 of those were at the allowance level, she has also posted her best Beyer Speed Figures ever, prompting me to wonder how much better she could get. Look for her to run mid to back of the pack, and fire late down the stretch.
The next horse at 5-1 is La Vinotinto, a 6 year old mare out of Mineshaft x Kingmambo x Storm Cat, who is starting in the 8 position. She is trained by stable Venezolano, and her “step-papa” is Tete Storm, who retired after 9 years and just over 70K in earnings. It seems the addition of Mineshaft to this bloodline has shifted things a bit, as papa earned his money in turf routes, and baby girl earns hers in dirt sprints, to the tune of over 600K. Consistency seems to be a bit of an issue with La Vinotinto, but her last race was a bit slow, and she likes to throw a pretty good number after a weak outing. She has won 3 of her last 6 outings, every other one, in fact, bad news for the rest of the field, as she did not win her last race. During this stretch she has won at both the Grade II and Grade III level, so she will be a tough competitor here. Look for her to push the pace early as one of the front runners.
The last horse at 5-1 is Minister Of Humor (KY), a 4 year old mare out of Distorted Humor x Deputy Minister x Secretariat, and coming out of the 12 hole. She is trained by stable Bandinni and has earned well over one million dollars for them. Although she has not won yet in her 2009 season, she is no stranger to the winner’s circle, having started her career with a astonishing 6 wins in a row! Her last win came last year in the Grade I “American Heart Association”. She seems to prefer an off track, but unfortunately she will not get that here. She is also one of those rare horses who can take her sprint ability out at least as far as a mile, which seems to indicate that no matter what pace is set here, Minister Of Humor will definitely factor in the finish somehow. Look for her to get out quick and duel with La Vinotinto for the early lead.
Behind these 3 are 3 more horses all at 6-1. Yes, you read that right, 6 of these 12 mares are basically a pick ’em. The first horse, coming out of the 1 hole, is Tenpin Touch (KY), out of Touch Gold x Miswaki x Polish Numbers. She is raced by stable Dixon, and after a slow start to her career, has really seemed to find herself the past 2 years. Although she has had a couple of rough races here in 2009, she started the season by posting one of her best Beyer Speed Figures ever. She has also won on both the turf and the dirt, although she has stuck mainly to the dirt the past 2 years. As I mentioned before, she had a couple of rough outings recently and could be poised to return to her winning ways in New York. She is another front runner, and it looks like we will have quite the interesting early duel in this race.
The next horse at 6-1 is coming out of the 2 position, right next to Tenpin Touch. She is Quay Dancer (KY), out of A.P. Indy x Seeking The Gold x Storm Cat, and she races for stable Tulloch. This 5 year old homebred mare has won nearly a quarter of a million in her lifetime, and is coming off 2 wins in her last 5 starts, including the Grade II “Dandelion Sprint”. She did not run her first race until January of 2008, but since then she has racked up 6 wins in 13 starts, winning at both the sprints and routes. I’m not sure what prompted her late start, but she has steadily gotten better over the last year. This would be her first win at the Grade III level. She is mostly a front runner, but she has won coming from the middle of the pack before, so I would look for her to decide whether the pace is to her liking, and run where she is most comfortable.
The last horse at 6-1, and coming out of the 3 hole, is Pulprats (KY), out of Pulpit x Danehill x Saint Ballado. This 4 year old homebred mare races for stable Darny, and has brought home over 300K in just 22 starts. This will be her first start this year, although she did have 3 wins in her 2008 season. We will have to see how quickly she can get back to form, and whether the long layoff has dulled her competitive spirit any. When she is on, she is as good as any horse in this race. Her last win was a gate to wire domination in the Grade III “The Pocahontas Sprint”. On a side note, she has faced Minister Of Humor before, but had an off race that day, and never really contended. Perhaps a chance for some revenge? We’ll have to keep an eye on that story. She is another front runner, and indeed most of her wins have come as gate to wire wins, so she’ll need to have a good break here.
The next horse, at 8-1 in the morning line, is Al Forest (KY), out of Good Reward x Danzig x A.P. Indy. This 4 year old mare races for stable Zielissimo, and is coming out of the 7 hole. She also has a “step-papa”, the 7 year old retired horse, Benasque, and so far, like father, like daughter. Their careers to date look fairly similar, although Al forest has won a bit more money in fewer races than her papa. She definitely has the speed to hang with this crowd, although she has not fared so well at the Graded Stakes level, finishing no better than 6th in 4 tries. We will have to see if she can overcome this hurdle today, and to do so, she will have to be at her sharpest. This field is not going to give anything away here. She likes to run from the middle to the back of the pack, so look for her to lay off early, and attempt to make a stretch run.
Behind her, at 11-1, are 2 more mares. The first is Creeping Mon (KY), out of Maria’s Mon x Gold Legend x Secretariat, coming out of the 4 position. This 4 year old light Grey mare races for stable Hellafied, and has earned almost 200K in just 17 starts for them. Her game Dam is Creeping Doom, who has 1 other foal, and who also earned almost 200K in her career. Creeping Mon was somewhat of a late bloomer, as she has put up her best Beyer Speed figures recently, and she is coming off back to back wins, albeit not at the Graded Stakes level. She is in tough company for this race, and will really need the trip of a lifetime to compete here. On the other hand, she loves this distance, and her last 2 races were good enough to figure here. She is mostly an early dueler, however she has stalked the pace a few times, so look for her to tailor her race to the pace set up front.
The other 11-1 mare is the 6 year old Falkish (IRE), out of Falbrav (IRE) x Capote x Alydar, who is coming out of the 10 hole. She is trained by stable Pisanof, and her game Dam is Alykish. Alykish has an astonishing 8 foals in the game, including 3 Stakes Winners, and 1 Graded Stakes winner. Wow, that is about the most successful game Dam I’ve ever seen, with 50 percent Stakes winners in that many foals. Falkish has had a long and illustrious career with 43 starts, all on dirt. She has never won at the Graded level, however, and will need to step her game up to factor in this one, or else hope for a slow pace. Look for her to stalk the pace, and try to make a move down the stretch.
Behind her, at 14-1, and coming out of the 5 hole, is Doubt Fool, out of Brown Arc x Irish Open x Mujtahid. This 6 year old mare is trained out of stable Cmdabroad. Oddly enough in this company, she has been raced in several claiming races, but her new stable has only run her at the allowance level. After her last start, in which she posted her best Beyer ever, Cmdabroad obviously decided the time was right to try and crack the Graded Stakes level. She will need a race at least as good as that one to figure here today. She has had a rather odd career, winning the same number of races on both turf and dirt, but never really putting up the numbers to compete at this level, until last race. Look for her to stalk just off the pace here.
Following her, at 66-1 and starting to get into real long shot territory, is the 3 year old homebred mare Broken Prospects (KY), out of Broken Vow x Awesome Again x Northern Prospect, coming out of the 9 hole. She is trained by stable Prophet3, and her game Dam is Another Prospect, who has had 2 stakes winners out of 4 foals so far. This 3 year old mare has earned almost a quarter of a million dollars for her stable to date, and has continued to improve with every race she has run. She is coming off 3 wins in her last four starts, and it will be interesting to see how she handles the jump to Graded Stakes competition. She will certainly have to put up a better speed figure than she has shown so far to get it done in this company. Look for her to stalk the pace, and make a run for it late.
Our final horse, going off at 99-1, is Dummy And Spit (FL), out of El Nino x Fairy King x Northern Prospect, coming out of the 11 hole. This 3 year old homebred is trained by stable Acariqua4 and has just 6 lifetime starts to her credit. She has continually improved in each start, but she is a real wild card here, having only started on the dirt 1 other time. She did post her best Beyer ever in that race, however, she will have to better that by a bit to get up with this company. Despite that, she did win as a fairly long shot in her last start, albeit at the allowance level, and she could prove to be a tougher opponent than her numbers indicate here. Look for her to settle in the pack and try to make a run down the stretch.
Alright, well now that we have broken this race down, well, it’s obvious who the winner will be, right? OK, maybe not, but it is time for….that’s right, you guessed it, Buster’s Upset Special! I’m gonna go out on a limb here, and pick one of the Northern Prospect babies (when you got nothing, you got nothing to lose right?), so I’m looking for Broken Prospects to get it done here and bring home the trophy for Prophet3. I really like her lineage, and I think she is ready to make the jump in level here. As always, remember the Upset Special is just for fun, and is not intended to be a condemnation of any horse in the race. I wish the very best of luck to all the owners and horses in the race. We’ll see y’all at the track Saturday for the inaugural “Long Island Sprint”, a Grade II Stakes race, 6 furlongs on the fast dirt for fillies and mares 3 years old and up, and hey, if Broken Prospects does come in, I’ll buy everyone a beer, OK?