The Victoria Cap
Welcome to Victoria and the the inaugural running of the Victoria Cap. This is a G2 event for horse 4 years old and up and is 10 furlongs on the turf for their share in the $800,000 purse. The weather is looking good and the track is listed as firm for the race. Today we have 9 horses up for the challenge, four 4 year olds and 5 older horses. There is a full day of racing in Victoria with the older horses sprinting in G1 event after these routers and then the fillies and mares go a mile in the G3 The Kewney. Let’s look at how the race is shaping up:
PP 1 WAKI’S A.P. (KY) (A.P. INDY x MISWAKI x NIJINSKY II) bred and trained by trotter4 (Trotter1, 16%) Odds: 7 to 1
First we have a nice looking colt from Trotter making his graded debut. He is the first of our 4 year olds and making his 13 start today. His last three races were all at this distance, 2 allowance wins and his first stakes win, so he is coming into today’s race on a three win streak. This will be his 9th try on turf and he has always hit the board when on this surface. The only concern of mine is the jump in class, but by looks the looks of his pedigree this son of A.P. Indy should handle it just fine. He is the first of many late runners in the field and he is comfortable letting others get well over 10 lengths ahead and then he blasts past them in the stretch. First one up is looking good here.
PP 2 DIVINE STRIKE (IRE) (HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR x BLUSHING GROOM x SADLER’S WELLS) bred and trained by waremblem3 (Winterfell Racing, 16%) Odds: 10 to 1
Next is another 4 year old Divine Strike, a son of Holy Roman Emperor from Winterfell Racing. He broke his maiden at first asking as a 2yo and has been showing solid improvement. Late last summer he was consistently hitting the board and got his first stakes win. He then tried 2 graded events, one with a third place finish and the other almost 17 lengths back. He took an eight week rest after that race and he first race back didn’t go much better, but it was a dirt try. Last out was solid allowance win back on turf and hopefully that is a sign he is getting back into good form.
PP 3 VERUS (KINGMAMBO x PLEASANT COLONY x HERBAGER) bred and trained by kurvin (Kurvin Stables, 11%) Odds: 23 to 1
Verus is the only 6 year old in the field and he is sandwiched between the 4 year olds. He is also the long shot in the field making just his sixth turf start. He is a 4 time stakes winner on dirt, but also has some respectable turf races. He is definitely in a rut recently and his trainer at Kurin Stables is changing things up a bit. He has been racing longer distances on dirt, but in his last three starts he finished a combined of 90 lengths back. He is another late runner and it is going to hard to pass the other late speed in the stretch.
PP 4 DISTORTED COLONY (DISTORTED HUMOR x PLEASANT COLONY x DEPUTY MINISTER) bred and trained by jrogue2 (Jrogue Stables, 18%) Odds: 8 to 1
Out of post position 4 is Distorted Colony, a 4 year old son of Distorted Humor. After marching through his conditions as a three year old he came close to winning in his graded debut last August. He has struggled some since then, but was able to win his first graded race two back at the G3-Marcos Footwear Handicap on a wet track. He won’t have the off track here, but this race is at the same distance. He is another of our many horses in the field with late speed and will have to get over his last out where he finished over 18 lengths back. It was a tough field and he just wasn’t able to make up ground the second half the race. He is the only 4 year old in the field with a graded win already.
PP 5 LAMBASTE (ENG) (DENOUNCE x THE MINSTREL x ELA-MANA-MOU (IRE)) bred and trained by lglong2y (Lgbost Stables, 9%) Odds: 11 to 1
Lambaste is the last of the 4 year olds and is making only his ninth career start. This son of Denouce is one of only 3 horses by that sire in the sim and is his only stakes winner. He breezed through his conditions and last out in his stakes debut he showed a lot of class in his win there. He is the lone early speed horse in the race and he will have the distance he has been winning at. The biggest question is if he will be able to handle the jump in class. If he can match his last performance he should definitely be in the mix here.
PP 6 JIMBOOMBA JACK (ENG) (RAINBOW QUEST x WOODMAN x IRISH RIVER) bred by rapier2 and trained by shamran8 (Shamran Stables, 14%) Odds: 5 to 1
The outside 4 horses are all 5 year olds, the first being Jimboomba Jack from Shamran Stables. This son of Rainbow Quest has trained at three different stables, but has really blossomed with his current trainer. He has won 8 of his 13 starts here and is coming off two wins also at this distance. What is concerning is that his worst finishes since being at Shamran Stables have been in his three stakes tries. So class could definitely be an issue here. His last two races he put up his two highest speed figures, speeds that are right there with others in the race. Although I love to see a claimer turn into a graded winner, I am not sure he will be able to handle the jump in class.
PP 7 JOHARZIG (KY) (JOHAR x DANZIG x PHONE TRICK) bred by epcotlen2 and trained by nywinger (Epcotlen Stables, 13%) Odds: 7 to 2
The last three horses are the oddmaker’s favorites. We have co-favorites at 7 to 2 and one at 4 to 1. Joharzig is our first co-favorite out of post position 7. He is a 5 year old son of Johar out of game dam Win Dancer. He has won stakes before and came close in a graded event as a two year old and today is making his third attempt at the “graded winner” title. Recently he has been struggling in stakes fields and winning allowance racing. His last out was his career high speed though (112) at an even mile. Like many others in the field it looks like class will be an issue for him. He usually runs just off the pace and in a field with very little early speed I can see him out in front with Lambaste.
PP 8 FORAMBO WILDCAT (KY) (FOREST WILDCAT x KINGMAMBO x RED GOD) bred and trained by zwhisper (Whisper Stables, 11%) Odds: 7 to 2
Forambo Wildcat is the other co-favorite. He is a 5 year old son of Forest Wildcat and the highest ranked horse here, at number 26 for older horses in the Turf Classic Route division. He is one of only two graded winners in the field and although he has only won once in the last year, he has been in the mix, hitting the board most of the time. He is also trying to forget his last race one of his worst career finishes. He did race that on only 3 weeks rest and he is used to getting at least 4 or 5 between races. You can add him to the list of late runners in the field.
PP 9 FOZ DE LUMBIER (IRE) (DUBAWI (IRE) x SADLER’S WELLS x ALYDAR) bred and trained by sansebas (Rafa Stables, 14%) Odds: 4 to 1
Last we have Foz De Lumbier, a 5 year old son of Dubawi. He is a 5 time stake winner making his fifth graded try. Although he has been very successful at the stakes level, it looks like he is having trouble making the step up in class to the graded level. In all of his graded tries he finished at least 10 lengths back. Another issue for his today is the distance. He is ranked 43rd in the Long Turf Route Division, but hasn’t raced under 11 furlongs in over 18 months. He liked this distance as a 3 year old, we’ll see if he still likes it as a 5 year old. His racing style has been pretty versatile, but lately he has been running just off the pace.
What an interesting field we have today. There are quite a few up and coming 4 year olds going for their first graded win. There are also a lot of older horses who have been successful at the stakes level, but not in graded company. Although the oddsmakers went with the older horses I am going with the youngsters to shake things up. I liked A.P. Waki when I first looked at him and after seeing the rest of the field he is going to be my pick.
Morning Line: 7 and 8 (tied), 9 and 6
Kloie’s picks: 1, 4 and 5
Good luck and happy racing. 🙂