The CONCERN BILLIE Memorial

Have the trainer’s lost the directions to Germany?  I ask this as I review the entrants for this Saturday’s CONCERN BILLIE Memorial and notice that only four runners are entered.  I understand that the restrictions of three year old filly only may be part of the small field, but I still wonder where the rest of the fillies are.  Anyhow, looking over the field, only two of the entrants have shown a stakes level type form, RUBY SLIPPER and FOGGY HOLIDAY, another runner ,HALF FLATTER, is a stakes winner but has not shown stake’s level speed, and the final runner, A DAY AT THE BEACH,  appears to have been entered as a test of her ability.  Whatever the reasons for the small field or for why the members are the field are here, I expect a two horse race fro the win over eight furlongs on the fast dirt of Germany.  Now to the field:

PP #1      RUBY SLIPPER (KY)                       toppers                  T. Small                 1/2

Trainer toppers, out of the Tops Stables, sends out the race favorite RUBY SLIPPER (KY) for her first go at stakes level running.  The relatively lightly ran daughter of A.P. Indy comes into the race not missing the board in her three career starts and also the highest lifetime speed figure of all the entrants with a 94 over eight furlongs her last time out.  The brown filly looks to take the lead straight out of the gate and not let it go.  This running style has worked sixty six percent of the time, but RUBY SLIPPER has shown that she can be caught with her third place finish two starts ago.  Trainer toppers has assigned jockey T. Small to ensure that she will not get caught in this race, and the odds makers seem to agree.

PP#2       HALF FLATTER (KY)                    cincin                     E. Bernstein          9/1

Cincin Stables and trainer cincin enter the only past stakes winner out of the four entrants, the six furlong KNOWN CHIEF Bonanza, in HALF FLATTER (KY).  This is somewhat ironic since the brown mare, even with the past success of the stakes win, is considered the long shot in this small field.  Most likely there are two reasons for the high odds:  a highest speed figure of 76 over seven lifetime starts, and the fact that this is the first attempt of a route distance race.  Jockey E. Bernstein is assigned the saddle to help this lurker find the winner’s circle one more time, this time at a longer distance than normal.

PP#3       FOGGY HOLIDAY (NY)                 jmstable                 A. Shove                8/5

The morning line’s second favorite, FOGGY HOLIDAY (NY), has probably the most experience at stakes level racing over eight furlongs.  Her past two starts have both been stakes races eight furlongs or over and both resulted in a third place finish and a career best spped rating of 89.  While this experience is certainly a positive, trainer jmstable may be concerned about the fact that HOLIDAY’s two career wins have both been sprint races thus far.  Jockey A. Shove will be in the irons of this brown runner that has shown tendencies of both lurking near the lead and breaking for the lead.  If the past is any indication, jmstable may want to suggest taking out his filly lurking off of the lead in this race.

PP#4       A DAY AT THE BEACH (IRE)      tgerk2                    J. Walsh                 8/1

A DAY AT THE BEACH is looking to make the leap from maiden races to stakes level competition with her fourth career start.  Trainer tgerk2 out of the Superfly Stables must have confidence in his young Footstepsinthesand filly by not only jumping up levels in competition, but also starting the brown runner in her first route distance race too.  A DAY’s winning form thus far has resulted in breaking to the front of the pack out the gate and holding on to the wire.  Jockey J. Walsh is in charge of determining if this form should continue over the extra distance.

I expect seeing RUBY SLIPPER (KY) and A DAY AT THE BEACH (IRE) breaking towards the front out of the gate.  At the half point, I see FOGGY HOLIDAY (KY), who has been lurking off of the lead, to make a move to the front and A DAY AT THE BEACH (IRE) to fade off the pace.  In the end, FOGGY HOLIDAY (KY) will overtake both of the front runners to take the win and RUBY SLIPPER (KY) coming in second.  A DAY AT THE BEACH (IRE) and HALF FLATTER (KY) will be fighting it out for the final spot on the board.