Roses are Red in Vermont

This is the first time this race will be contested at this distance. Such a G1 prep with a rich purse and history deserves a talented field, and this edition has it in spades. In post position order, we have:

PP1: One Size Fits All (Grey Swallow x A.P. Indy x Storm Cat)

Grey Swallow did his best running on the turf, and that is where this hansg homebred began his career, finishing second in the Guns N Roses-G1 at a flat mile. After a disappointing effort in the BB Juvy Turf, he switched to the main track, and surprised many with his game second in the Arizona Diamond-G1, posting a solid 93 SF. Somewhat surprisingly, his connections elected to cut him back to six panels, where he was fifth on DelPenn Champions Day. This distance ought to suit much better, and a repeat of the Diamond performance would make him a real threat, and help to seal a berth in the Derby. 

PP2: Easy As Pie (Octagonal x Storm Cat x Devil’s Bag)

Another turf-bred, this guy began his racing career sprinting on the dirt and won. After a fourth in stakes competition, Danno1 returned his charge to the sprints, where the colt reeled off two straight wins, then was second in the River Learn Challenge. A switch to turf brought perhaps the best performance of the colt’s career. Nevertheless, Pie was returned to a mile on the dirt last out, where he won the Cure the Trick Bonanza Stakes with a 98 SF. The colt’s running style suggests he should appreciate some extra distance, whether that is 1 1/16 miles, 1 3/16 miles or farther remains to be seen. Still, he has flashed genuine talent and appears to be on the improve, which is all you can ask for at this time of year.

PP3: Thunder Cracked (A.P. Indy x Thunder Gulch by Danzig)

By a Derby favorite and Belmont winner, whose dam is by a Derby/Belmont hero, this guy is bred to get a distance. Not surprisingly, he is the only colt in this field to have attempted this distance, finishing a closing second last time out against allowance competition. Super attempts to add to their Derby arsenal here. The main knocks against the super25 homebred is that he will need to step it up, speedfigure-wise, and if anything, 9 ½ furlongs may be too short. Still, if Brownlow can time the sophomore’s late kick properly, he could be there at the finish.

PP4: Bartsi Gusse (Savabeel x In the Wings x Mountain Cat)

Another turf-bred colt, this marcol homebred quickly showed that he’d rather be on the main track. A deep closer, the handsome youngster has shown steady improvement with distance, and comes into this race with a pair of 1 1/16 stakes wins under his belt. His best speed figure of 93 places him in the thick of things with this field, and Bartsi looks like he should only get better with the extra furlong. Main concern is his running style which may leave him vulnerable if a legitimate early pace fails to materialize.

PP5: Midtown Riot (Street Cry x Rahy x Geri)

This guy has the same sire as last year’s Derby hero, Kissin Streetcry, and not surprisingly, is yet another colt in this field that seems to be improving with the extra mileage. The [i]acote[/i] homebred just missed in a restricted stakes at 1 1/16 miles two starts back with a 97 SF, then never fired in the Silver Fence Derby-G3 seven weeks later. He’s had a five week break, so it couldn’t have been an injury, and he didn’t run all that bad, from a speed figure perspective, so for now, it’s best to toss that race. A repeat of the Blazing Saddles would make him a legitimate threat.

PP6: Ripperbeast (Point Given x Mr. Prospector x Seattle Slew)

This imposing chestnut beast of a colt was aptly named by breeder Pincay. Ripperbeast’s sire, Point Given, was a beaten favorite on Derby Day, but this guy has lots of Derby blood flowing through his veins. After beginning his career as something of a front-runner, Ripperbeast has shown vast improvement since being taken off of the pace. After winning the Cavalcade Cup Juvenile, the colt ventured against graded stakes competition, unleashing a furious charge to finish second in the Twinhollow Trainer Champion-G1 at 7 furlongs, a distance that was clearly too short for him (but posted a whopping 102 SF in the process), then was a fast-closing second in the Silver Fence Derby-G3, defeating several other horses who return here today. He earned a 98 SF in defeat. His speed figures and performances against graded competition make the Beast a dangerous foe, and 5/1 may prove to be a bit of a gift.

PP7: Black Tide (Rule of Law x Black Tie Affair x Plugged Nickle)

Despite his somewhat obscure pedigree, Black Tide has made quite a successful start to his career for breeder stczzombie. While he has won only twice, including the one mile Financial Slap Memorial (88 SF), the brown colt has finished second on five other occasions. On the plus side, the colt appears to be the lone speed in the field; on the negative, he’s had uncontested leads before and been unable to hold on at shorter distances, and was seventh in his previous graded stakes attempt. Very nice colt, but this race may be a bit further than he wants to go.

PP8: Sisson’s Sunday (Any Given Saturday x Northern Dancer x Roberto)

Levers’ lanky colt is one of the few graded stakes winners in the field, and he did so impressively, scoring in the Club Stakes-G2 at 1 1/16 miles two starts back, winning with a 98 SF. More recently, he closed belatedly for second in a one mile stakes on DPCD, and enters this race off of an eight week layoff. The distance looks ideal, and a repeat of the Club makes him one of the favorites. The 7/1 odds may be a bit generous here.

PP9: Sports Guy (Awesome Again x Capote x Fappiano)

The second super entry in the field, this guy enters the race fresh off of a confidence building win in a 9 furlong allowance with a 92 SF. Prior to that, the colt had been knocking on the door, closing late to pick up minor awards in a pair of grade one events. The extra distance should be to this guy’s liking, but the super1 homebred will probably need to put up a career best, speed figure wise, to pull out the win at this level.

PP10: Osotogari (First Samurai x Forty Niner x Nureyev

Named after a judo maneuver, this brown colt’s connections hope that he can deliver a winning move Saturday. The ontarget homebred already has three graded stakes wins to his credit, including the Cryogenics Juvenile-G3 at a flat mile (93 SF). The colt was a good fourth on Breeders’ Bowl Day, where he made a bit of a late move. All was not well, however, last time out in the Eruption Handicap-G1 on DelPenn Champions Day, when the colt never ran a step, and was distanced. I feel pretty confident in tossing that race out, and after an eight week back, he looks to make amends. It isn’t entirely clear that Osotogari wants to go this far, but if you’ve got Derby dreams you’ve got to try sometime, and certainly his two performances last fall justify taking a shot here. If the problems that plagued him in the Eruption are behind him, look out, because this guy will be on the attack.

PP11: Mo Better Blues (Bernardini x Point Given x Seeking the Gold)

With two Preakness winners in his immediate pedigree, this race, also at the Preakness distance, seems like it should suit this billzpaid5 homebred, at least on paper. On the track, though, the colt seems to like a mile a bit better, fading in each of his last four starts, all of which have been at distances longer than a mile. That said, Mo hasn’t run badly, picking up minor checks, and he’s posted some speed figures in the 90s, but he’s got a bit to prove on Saturday.

PP12: King in Place (King of Happiness x Out of Place x Vaguely Noble)

This long-striding colt has been a bit of a late bloomer for trainer/breeder graywolf32. His connections know what it takes to get a horse to the Derby, and King in Place is getting good at the right time. After taking 10 tries to break his maiden, the sophomore immediately went two for two, scoring for fun in a 9 furlong allowance race and posting a career-best 90 SF. The extra distance should only help this guy. He’ll get a class test here, and the quick turnaround is a bit of a concern (second start in two weeks and third start in four), but if it works, he’ll be thrust squarely in the Derby picture.

PP13: Disguised Regret (Awesome Again x Unbridled x Alydar)

This well-bred colt from the Lenbrenner empire has only one blemish on an otherwise perfect record. Unfortunately, that clunker came in on Breeders’ Bowl day, and may have just been a badly timed injury. After a twelve week layoff, the colt came roaring back with an easy score in a one mile allowance. The brown colt is three for three at a mile, and based on pedigree and running style, looks like he can handle going farther. He’ll need to post a career best speed figure here to win, but like the others in this field, has room to improve.

PP14: Misty Whisper (Latent Heat x Miswaki x Danzig)

Last but not least in the field is Misty Whisper, who last fall finished third on BB day in the Juvenile-G1 with a 94 SF. Prior to that, the Whisperer was a closing third in the Darling-Squash Futurity-G3 (94 SF). The vertain6 colt was a flat seventh last time out on DelPenn Champions day, and is another one looking to rebound successfully here. I can’t really get a read on how much past a mile the dark grey colt really wants to go. Still, he’s answered the class test in the past, and has the potential to turn things around here.

Good luck to all of the contenders.