The Veldfire Handicap

D.C.’s feature race this Saturday is the Veldfire Handicap, restricted to horses four years old and up. The race is six furlongs on a yielding turf course, and the purse is $40,000.

1 – Ever since he broke his maiden in a turf race during his three-year-old season, favorite CHANGE THIS (5/2) has very competitive on the allowance and later stakes circuit, collecting eight career wins, including four stakes wins. The yielding turf should be no problem for him, as he’s already won three times on a course not rated firm. Change This did have an uncharacteristically lackluster showing last time out in the Redhead Bingo Challenge, finishing up the track, but there’s no reason to believe he won’t bounce back and run like his usual self.

2 – LITTLE JOHN (26/1), the longest shot on the board, has a big challenge ahead of him if he wants to hit the board. He has run well on a yielding turf course, posting a career-best 103 speed number in a solid second-place allowance effort last October. A repeat of that form could throw him in the mix, and there is room for this four-year-old to mature and improve.

3 – COPPER SKATES (7/2) is trying the Veldfire for the second year in a row – and there’s every indication it will go better for him this time around. In 2008 he ran a dismal 38 speed number and was sidelined for three months. He’s one of three horses who, at 7/2, look poised to take command should Change This falter just a little. Copper Skates has handled soft turf before and is coming off a win in the Barely Flaunt Memorial.

4 – Veteran K’OMENDATORE (7/2) has earnings of over $800,000 and is Grade I stakes-placed. It appears that the seven-year-old is still in fine form – he’s won two races in a row, including a stakes. He hasn’t raced since last November, but seems to do well with some space between races.

5 – Grade I stakes-placed BULGARIA (17/1) has had plenty of success during his career, but looks to have lost a step since 2008. He hasn’t posted a speed number over 100 since last May, and his best races recently have been in the low 90s, which certainly won’t be enough to get the job done here. It would be an enormous surprise if he did well Saturday.

6 – WHERE ARE THE WMD (6/1) is a talented horse who has picked up lots of checks and breeding points in allowance and stakes races. Although he’s more likely to find the winner’s circle Saturday than weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, it’ll be a big ask. Even on his best days he’s consistently a little slower than some of the competition here.

7 – SUNDAY ROAR (7/2) is the final – and probably the most menacing – member of the trio that has a good chance of beating favorite Change This. He ran an excellent 107 speed number in his last race, an open allowance contested at the same distance as the Veldfire. More importantly, he can come from off the pace, while every other horse in the race has exhibited a decided preference for racing on or close to the lead. A lightning pace could open the door for him.

8 – EL APPROVO PROSPO (11/1) is commendably consistent, nearly always running numbers in the mid to high 90s. Similar to Little John and Where Are the WMD, he looks to be a tier below the top four horses in the race. It would take a big improvement for him to threaten here.