Bluegrass Derby Trail: Greece
Greece (formerly named Athens!)– Seven sophomore candidates test 8.5 furlongs on dirt this week in the $75,000 Dare To Say Go Stakes, an EAAA Division Bluegrass Derby Trail prep.
Fortune500’s modestly bred Worst Case(TX) (4/1) brings heavy black type credentials. The grey colt by the Point Given stallion State Your Case has won five stakes races so far in sweeping come-from-the-clouds style. Experienced around two-turns, Worst Case attempts 8.5f for the fourth time. He last won over the distance well in hand at Pennsylvania, closing out his outstanding freshman season. Worst Case made his 3yo seasonal debut just two weeks ago in the Giant Slayer Classic(G3) at Denmark. The colt went off at considerable long odds and ran like an outsider too, finishing up the track in 12th. He faces softer company this time around, but needs to step up his speed figure game.
Trainer Dogpatch actually sends out the 5/2 morning line favorite: Ashburn(KY). By Grand Slam, Ashburn has won 2 of his 3 career outings, including a Massachusetts added-money event around 7.5 furlongs. The colt ran even-steven at Minnesota in his 3yo debut last month. Ashburn makes his first lifetime start around two-turns. The colt possesses a speedy female family on paper. Hopefully jockey DJ Drosos can get the stalker to relax behind the pace.
Lenny of the infamous Evil Empire steps up Wright’s Corner(KY) (3/1). Royally bred by Forestry, Wright’s Corner tries the stakes level for the very first time Saturday. The colt dispatched 3 of his 5 starts so far. The stalker most recently galloped home much the best in an 8.5f Kentucky allowance. He also cracked the 90 SP# barrier in that effort. Very promising youngster from the Lenny Corporation.
Kingman Racing Syndicate asks angellically-named Serephim(KY) (5/1) to try 8.5f again. The Scat Daddy teen broke his maiden last year in his fourth career attempt, then promptly pocketed a mile allowance in good time. Serephim finished off his 2yo campaign with a decent but distant 3rd in a Newmarket stakes feature. The speedster tired after seizing command in the 8.5f contest’s final sixteenth. We’ll see if the six-week breather brought him back to shipshape fitness.
By the Giant’s Causeway stallion Primary, Picture You(IRE) (6/1) naturally began his career last year over the grass. However, Bmr005’s chestnut frontrunner ran yicky over the green stuff and immediately switched to the main track. The colt took well to the new surface, breaking his maiden and later finishing up the season with a stakes score at Dubai. Picture You recorded a 95 SP# in that victory, the highest number of Saturday’s sophomore group. We’ll see if the colt can stetch his speed though — he faded late in his first start at a mile last season.
Trainer Otto Haack from Hispano Parlante tests Pocoyo(KY) (7/1) in black type company for the first time. By Gone West out of a Danehill mare, Pocoyo raced mostly on the grass last year where he won 2 of 5 starts in modest time. However, Pocoyo clearly loved the dirt surface in his final start at age 2. The colt rated behind the lead splendidly and won going away over the off track mile. He enjoyed a 7-week vacation afterwards and should be very fresh.
Finally, Mondili(GER) (9/1) races for Mano at Pastures of Green. The Monsun youngster won 2 of 5 starts over the main track last year for Mano. The stalker recorded modest 80 SP#s, but showed a lot of promise in doing say since he’s bred to run all day. In his 3yo seasonal bow, Mondili easily bagged a 4-horse “workout” allowance over Saturday’s distance. Improving colt should get some money, but obviously bred to run 10f+.
Analysis: IMO, the two best colts on paper are the very green Wright’s Corner and LTO winner Pocoyo. Both stalkers should run their races, though Pocoyo might “need a race” after such a long break.
Worst Case has a great resume, but I’m not sure about two weeks rest at this time of year. Additionally, he needs pace up front and these colts are all mostly stalkers. We’ll see if any kind of speed duel develops, but I kind of doubt it.
Serephim and Picture You have both faded over 8.5f before. Both are worth another go at the distance though, but I’ll pass. Ashburn’s pedigree screams speed to me, but he could turn out to be a miler just the same. He should be respected. I really like Mondili, but his PPs efforts beg for more ground.
I’ll take Pocoyo over Wright’s Corner and Mondili. Good luck everyone!