G2 The Colonial Derby Preview

The Field

#1 Camelford (The Mecca) 15/1 : Lightly raced gelding picked up his first real win, outside of that initial hot race, with a dominating performance in the G2 The Griffen two back. Tried G1 company last out in the Derby De English going longer and was clearly outclassed. Cuts back to the same distance as that big win, which should help. Can he bounce back against a softer group at big odds?

#2 Shady Secret (Hoosier Racing) 12/1 : Has been competitive in the allowance ranks with two wins and showed he belonged in stakes company with a solid third two back in the G1 Sydney Derby. Made a move in his latest in the G1 The Jockey Club but could only manage fifth. He’s holding his own at this level. Can he take that next step forward against this group?

#3 Harland De Vega (No Residency) 9/1 : Just 1 win in 9 starts, finally getting that breakthrough on his fifth try. Hit the board in listed stakes earlier this year with a second and a third, but the jump to graded company has been tougher. Did manage a decent fourth last out in the G3 Virginia Turf Cup. Can he build on that in another graded event?

#4 Aviation Sensation (No Residency) 9/1 : Started his career on dirt, no surprise being by Flightline, but looked better once switched to turf. Won the Ollies Gone Turf Route two back, then stepped into graded company for the first time in the G3 Virginia Turf Cup. Finished 5th there, one spot behind #3 Harland De Vega. Can he turn the tables in his second graded try?

#5 Louisville Optimal (MIDAS) 11/1 : Could’ve claimed him for $5K in his debut, but he’s come a long way since. Won 3 of 4 allowance races in a strong run before stepping up to stakes company. Took the Ghostbuster Turf Special two back at today’s distance, but the other two stakes efforts have been all over the map, including a 16th in the G1 Derby De English last out. Which version shows up this time?

#6 Went Home Alone (Down Under Racing) 12/1 : Likes to sit on or near the pace as the barn has been testing distances to find his best trip. He’s been giving up ground late in a few races, but handled the stretch-out well last out with a runner-up finish in the G2 Seventh King Eddie Stakes going 12 furlongs. Now drops back to 10 furlongs. Will he try to lead them all the way this time?

#7 Gold’s Impact (Orphan Racing) 5/1 : Comes in off a dominant 10 ¾ length allowance win where he posted a monster speed figure. Favoured here and trending the right way, but his two previous stakes tries were off the board, including a 7th in the G3 Dracula Stakes. The 10 furlongs might hit him just right. Is this the breakout performance?

#8 Australia “Z” (Elite Racing Club) 7/1 : Top ranked in my “Field in Numbers” section and brings plenty of graded experience with four straight tries at this level. Best result was a runner-up finish in the G3 The Palms three back. Has been finishing up well lately, suggesting he might want even more ground. Will the 10 furlongs give him the setup he needs?

#9 Dubintel (Down Under Racing) 9/1 : Has looked more consistent since being gelded and got the job done in the For Glory and Fame Turf Route two back. Disappointed last out with an 8th in the G3 The Crown Roys, which takes a bit of shine off those back-to-back triple digit speed figures. Would’ve liked to see him come in with a bit more confidence. Can he rebound when it counts?

#10 Bartering (East-West Connection) 12/1 : Won three straight allowance races on the turf, showing he knows how to find the wire. But hasn’t shown much in graded company, best finish was an 8th in the G3 The Palms three back, and comes in off an 11th in the G2 Hollywood Mile. He’s got talent, but this level has been a different story. Maybe he’s just a really solid allowance type. Can he prove he belongs at this level?

#11 The Blue Zebra (Orphan Racing) 17/1 : Longest shot on the board with just 1 win in 6 starts, finally breaking his maiden on the fifth try. Comes in off a 5th-place finish in the G1 Japanese Derby, 12 ¼ lengths back, but still a respectable showing in a deep field. Has some upside and room to improve. Can he take a step forward at a big price?

#12 Justify The Cosmos (Orphan Racing) 12/1 : Turned in a nice triple digit figure two back with a third in the G1 Japanese 2000 Guineas, finishing 10 ¼ lengths behind, though the winner did run off by 9 ½. Tried stretching out in the G1 Derby De English last time and faded to 18th in a field of 20. Cuts back to 10 furlongs here, which should suit him better. Can he bounce back at his preferred trip?

#13 Reverse Uno (Orphan Racing) 12/1 : Three wins from seven starts and tends to either fire big or not factor at all. His best effort came in the 9.5 furlong A.P. Poll Turf Special, where he cruised home by 4 lengths. Came back with an 8th in the G1 Adelaide Derby and saw his speed figure dip. Bit of a boom-or-bust type, which version will show up today?

#14 Bluegrass A Shin (No Residency) 10/1 : Making the 33rd start of his career, so definitely bringing experience, but it’s been more about quantity than quality. He’s won 7 times, but never at the graded level. Was 7th in the G3 Movie Cup three back, and last time out finished 23 ½ lengths behind in an allowance race. Hard to back with confidence here. Can the veteran surprise?

The Field In Numbers

Horse	Speed – L3	CPU Value	T/R Rank	Total Points
Australia “Z”	100.3	819	421	33
Dubintel	99.5	805	338	32
Louisville Optimal	97.1	756	221	30
Gold’s Impact	101.4	934	1071	30
Aviation Sensation	96.6	776	238	29
Harland De Vega	97.6	775	776	24
Camelford	95.2	664	67	23
Shady Secret	96.8	744	585	22
Justify The Cosmos	95	685	114	21
Reverse Uno	95.1	686	334	20
Bartering	95.6	737	717	18
Bluegrass A Shin	89.9	624	180	14
Went Home Alone	93.6	685	576	12
The Blue Zebra	93.6	656	6205	5