Fourteen Longchamp ‘Diamond’s In The Rough

The GSR Diamond series is making for a busy weekend of Breeders Bowl prep races.  The Diamond races are four races for the juvenile division, featuring a colt turf race, a colt dirt race, a filly turf race, and a filly dirt race.  While California hosts the fillies on the dirt, New York gets the colts on the turf, and Norway gets the colts on the grass, Longchamp is the place to be to watch juvenile fillies go a mile on grass in the Grade I, $500,000 GSR Diamond Stakes. 

The course will be firm for this important prep race for next month’s Breeders Bowl, and the field of fourteen is deep and talented.  While a few of the top names in the division found their way into prep races last weekend, all fourteen of the fillies at Longchamp are ranked in the Top 100 in the juvenile turf fillies division.  There’s talent, and a lot of speed, in this tight group of fillies.

Here’s the field, by order of their division ranking:

Ransom (Red Ransom-Otto Judge, by Danehill) is the #3 filly in the classic division, and this 2die4 trainee has hit the board in each of her five starts.  She broke her maiden in allowance company, and is a stakes winner at a mile-and-a-sixteenth already, and steps into graded company for the first time here.  She prefers to sit just off the early pace, which requires a little finesse for this filly—put her too far away from the early lead, and she’s less willing to make a late charge.  Her numbers are decent, although other contenders have stronger figs, but her experience at going even longer needs to be respected, as a number of fillies here do not have experience going a route.  She’s nicely bred, and the distance won’t matter to her; if her early positioning sees her within a length or two of the pace, she could be very formidable down the stretch.

Large Marge(IRE) (Theatrical-June Bug, by Kingmambo) is already a Grade II winner for socko, and she likes to stay close to the early pace as well.  For this one, though, it’s her first time going being six furlongs, and with a lot of pace expected here, getting too close to the fire can burn her out before they turn for home.  Her speed figures are respectable, though she hasn’t cracked a number over 80 just yet, which is pretty key, seeing as how the top fillies in the division are already firing shots well into the mid-80s.  She’s got a good jock on her shoulders, so early position could be key.

PB’s Pride (Vindication x Dynaformer) has only a maiden win, but that maiden win just happened to come in the restricted Juvy Blast two starts back for peeps9.  Though her initial win came in that restricted stakes, she didn’t glean too much from the effort; in the win, she sat just off the pace, made a middle move, and kicked home a clear winner, while her other starts, including her last, featured her on or very close to the pace and fading late.  Her figs are rather average for a graded runner at this stage; which filly shows up?  We’re inclined to think she’ll be much closer to the front end than she was in her win, and with a lot of early speed here, that could spell trouble for her.

Sudden Thunder T (Sudden Thunder-Smoldering Riddle, by Sadler’s Wells) seems to have found a home both on the lead for the stables of tgroup.  Her last was a wire job in a Utah stakes in which she sprinted clear early and was an easy winner.  What is cause for a handicapper’s concern was the resulting speed figure of 85: was it honest?  Her other figs have been rather middling for a graded runner, and this ain’t Utah.  She’d appreciate a dreamy pace scenario like her last, and she can be fast as needed, but unlike in Utah, there’s a much bigger field with a lot more early foot.  She may try to take them as far as she can, as fast as she can, which might be this sprinting filly’s best line of defense: a good offense.

Prabha(AUS) (Testa Rossa-Miss Frankenstein, by Warning(GB)) started her brief career off by winning her first two starts, and this Grade III winner for united has thrived at sprinting, leading or pressing the pace in each of her three wins.  She may not have cared for the softer ground last out, as she never utilized her characteristic early pressure.  Early pressure is something she enjoys to give to the pace-setters, but she prefers to perform a solo act when doing that; the fact that there are a lot of contenders with a strong preference towards early speed doesn’t bode well to those plans.  Rating would be an ideal recommendation, but how or whether she’ll respond is very much uncertain.

Benefactress(IRE) (Generous-Curious Cat, by Seeking The Gold) is a perfect three-for-three for the stables of hornedfrog, and she seems thus far to have done everything that’s been asked of her.  Maiden win?  Check.  Entry-level allowance victory?  Check.  Graded stakes winner?  Check.  All of her wins have featured her making a late move strong enough to circle the field, and they’ve been at gradually increasing distances.  She’s proven herself more than capable at a mile, and her win in the Moony Stakes at France last out, where she came from seven lengths out to win driving, earned her an impressive speed fig of 85.  The race shapes up as being a bit top-heavy with front-runners, which sets up perfectly for her in the stretch.  She’s rounding into form as a strong mile threat in the division, and looks pretty strong among a very speedy bunch.

Nob Hill (Miesque’s Son-Frisco Project, by With Approval), representing novanora, has had her best success when she’s been within a reasonable proximity to the lead.  When she’s tried to sit in mid-pack, she’s lacked the needed late response, but when she’s within a couple of lengths from the pace, she’s been decisive.  A Grade III winner in Iowa, her last two starts stand out from the field, and her 86 is tops in this bunch figure-wise.  She’s talented enough, and her pedigree is one of a solid grass miler.  If she keeps the early leaders in sight, and the sharp fractions aren’t quite so smokin’, expect her to have a say in matters near the end.

Solo Hollandia (Mt. Livermore-A.P. Guitar, by A.P. Indy) is a stretch runner for the pellegrino barn, another filly who prefers a late kick to some early foot, having won her last with stretch-driving aplomb.   She’s graded-placed, with that late move, and she should appreciate the expected early speed duel unfolding in front of her.  Her speed figures, though, even at her best, do fall a notch short on class, so elevating her game is a must.

Takethecar (Stroll x Rainbow Quest) has been on target for ontarget2, hitting the board in each of her three starts and sitting chilly off the lead in each of them.  She’s a stakes winner, and nicely bred for the distance.  There’s potential, and upside, here.  But she’s never faced a big challenge: she’s never faced a field that had more than six starters in it.  She’s facing twice as much traffic as she ever has before, and so what worked among a shorter field, negotiating traffic with ease, might not necessarily fly against thirteen of the best juvenile fillies.  What could be a saving grace is her post position; starting from the #13 hole could allow her to steer clear of potential traffic back-ups, if you believe post position plays a role in potential outcomes.  She’s making a graded debut here, and so there’s a lot to consider, but her speed figures are a notch below, regardless.

Morve De Demon (War Chant x Fappiano) is bred ideally for the mile for nathndtroi, and she started her career sharply, winning her first two efforts.  Her graded debut saw her backing up through the field, and her last at today’s distance found her with only a mild response in the stretch.  Fig-wise, she’s near the bottom of the field, with no number rising above a 74.  She’s versatile enough to take the lead early as needed, or sit back and strategize, but her seasoning leaves one just a bit cold at this stage.  Nicely bred as she is, trying graded-level opposition at this distance without a lot on her résumé to support her case just now is a touch less than convincing.

The Blue Sword(GB) (Diesis(GB)-Niner Niner, by Forty Niner) comes from a pedigree of talent for aalusive.  Her half-sister Brahms Niner is already a stakes winner on the dirt, and The Blue Sword(GB) was four-for-four until running into Benefactress(IRE) in France last out.  A multiple stakes winner, she prefers to sit close to the pace and wait her turn, and she’ll have lots of company to that end here.  Her numbers have continued to climb through each start, and she shows signs of being a very good sprinter on either surface.  Wilting as the main speed last out going seven-and-a-half furlongs, though, doesn’t bolster confidence in a field already front-loaded with speed and with a pair of severe stretch-drivers.  She’ll be near the action, but based on her latest, staying a mile would be awfully tough.

Xtremely A Show (A.P. Indy x Kris S.), representing ejdstable, should have speed to burn leaving the gate.  She’s preferred to make the lead on her own in her victories, and has been a pace influence in each start on the grass (toss the graded effort on the dirt, which gave her figs a brief lift but left her choking on dust).  The bloodlines suggest distance shouldn’t be a factor, but her recent inability to hold off a late run down the stretch don’t inspire as much confidence as one might hope.  Numbers are pretty fair, but with the lively pace party anticipated, a little more restraint could boost her chances.

Intercepted (Java Gold-Fuzzy World, by Kingmambo) has turned it around for favetrick5 since leaving the dirt behind.  Her early dirt numbers were fair, but switching to the turf brought her numbers up just a little bit, and she rewarded the faith in the surface switch by outkicking the boys at D.C. last out.  Her late run should be primed to make a move late, though her numbers are still just average amongst these fillies and there are stronger deep closers to be found; her jock, though, is pretty good at rating a horse, and every little bit helps.

Diesel Teddy T(GB) (Diesis(GB)-Teddy’s Prospector, by Mr. Prospector) has also shown growth since shanx switched her from the dirt to the lawn.  After a pair of pretty blah dirt tries, she was moved to the grass, and her performances improved.  Her numbers still fall a touch below the best of these, but her pedigree is pretty strong on classic turf racing ability.  She’s another who’d want to try and influence the pace scenario, and who might be better served rating and relaxing away from what transpires up front.

My selections:

1. Benefactress(IRE)
2. Ransom
3. Nob Hill
4. PB’s Pride
5. Intercepted

Good luck, and happy racing.