Some Champions and Some WannaBees. And In Between As Well.
Well this is a big race with some wannabees in here and some out and out champions. And in between we have all the hopefuls who deserve their chance to run at this level. No wonder it is so hard to pick a winner and get some money on your punting. Or is it? If we have a good look at these runners you may find something that takes your fancy and who knows it might just be the winner. Whether you pick on their record, or their earnings, or the sound of their name or just by blind luck, anyone of these 2yo girls running here today in the G1 over a mile could win because they are entered as the runners here. And the other thing of note is that anyone of these girls here are better than anything in my stables. Still there are some that appear to shine more than others. The purse is a whopping $500,000 so a nice little bonus before Christmas hey.
Can I also say a merry christmas to all and hope you have a safe one too. OK lets see who is running shall we?
1 PAVE(ENG)
Owner: rlogan
Record: 7-2-1-2
Earnings: $82,096
Jockey: I Betts
Odds: 29/1
Well straight up we have the long shot of the race on the tote and if we look at her record to date we see immediately why she is the outsider here. Having only 2 races at Stakes level and although she did get a fading second place last time out in the Seeking Greatness Bonanza over 8 furlongs this is a different class altogether. This is Grade I level and she is going to struggle here I fear. Likes to up front early but will need to be a mile in front to take this out. She will be paving the streets with gold if she takes this out and the trainer will be lining their stomach with champagne but I think that is a very outside chance.
2 RANADAN(MD)
Owner: manowar
Record: 7-3-3-0
Earnings: 492,190
Jockey: J Piotrowski
Odds: 9/1
Out of Deputy Storm if we discount her last race where she failed in the G1 Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf Filly running 10th across the line she would have every chance here. Her previous run was in the G1 Filly Grand Prix where she ran a good speed of 90 for the win. Also won at Stakes level and another race of note is the G1 Fauster’s Juvenile Cup where she placed second. Should challenge here you would think and has a chance.
3 SOTIEROLOGY(KY)
Owner: profitthis
Record: 6-4-0-1
Earnings: $116,630
Jockey: P Haynes
Odds: 19/1
Another of the outsiders has run 3 races on dirt and 3 races on turf. 50/50 split. That says nothing until you consider her runs on turf. 3 runs for 3 wins and getting better with each run. Won at Stakes level over 5.5 furlongs and then her last run back in Allowance company over 8 furlongs she ran a speed of 83 for the win. Now this is a totally different class here but based on what she has done since her trainer swapped her over to turf she could be well worth backing for a place at least. Good odds on the tote and she could definitely surprise if she improves again here.
4 BLUE GREEN HUNTER(KY)
Owner: fab36
Record: 6-5-0-0
Earnings: $223,340
Jockey: I Thomas
Odds: 7/1
Not sure what a blue green hunter hunts. I know the name is based on her breeding but bear with me. Blue green bear? This gal has 5 wins from 6 outings including a win at G3 level in the Booker T. Handicap over 8 furlongs. Her last run in the G1 Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf Filly she came in fourth and looked like she was struggling for the distance at the end. Or maybe it was the pace of the race early on. Real chance here to stake her claim at G1 level. Needs another level up in speed but could be challenging at the end. Definitely worth considering if you are planning on having a punt.
5 PRIMARY FORCE(KY)
Owner: mtk76stc
Record: 3-2-1-0
Earnings: $74,620
Jockey: W Cahill
Odds: 19/1
The other outsider of this race and probably primarily because of her inexperience to date with only the three outings. Has run beautifully each time though with a win at Stakes level in her last run. Each run she has improved and will need that here to pressure the leaders. I don’t know if it’s just me or what but I like these sort of runners to back because they are great odds and this one at least shows she is at least capable of a serious bid in this race. Only if she improves though. And thats the key. Worth a couple of dollars on her though.
6 TWICE AS LONG(KY)
Owner: borrow4
Record: 5-3-0-0
Earnings: $92,820
Jockey: F Gossett
Odds: 7/1
With 5 races and 3 wins from those five outings she looks good. She won over 8 furlongs in the Hero Laura Special Stakes with a speed of 90 which is not shabby at all. Her last run over further, 8.5 furlongs, in the G1 Graduation Stakes she came in 6th and a speed of 85. She was starting to close on the leaders though and that is significant. I think she wants longer, way longer maybe even twice as long. I dont think she will challenge here but I’d love to see her next year as a three year old going round 10 furlongs plus.
7 RITA HAYWORTH(ENG)
Owner: nathndtroi
Record: 6-3-2-0
Earnings: $167,500
Jockey: O Ridenour
Odds: 12/1
Another of the challengers stepping up from Stakes level. Having been somewhat successful at Stakes level where she was thrown straight into it after her first debut maiden win. Two wins since then and two second places. Running primarly at 7 furlongs or below her last run was her only run at this distance and she showed she enjoyed the extra distance with a significant increase in speed as well as getting the win across the line. Based on that run she should be at the end here. In fact if she runs like that again she will be taking this out or close to it.
8 PHOTO FLASH(KY)
Owner: focuslodge
Record: 8-2-2-2
Earnings: $63,030
Jockey: L Carter
Odds: 9/1
This girl likes the cameras. I’ll be straight up about that. Loves to pose, see the flash of the cameras in her eyes, loves to be on the front page of the tabloids each week with her trainer in tow. Well girl if thats what you like you need to start producing some results at Stakes or higher level and this race would be a fantastic start. Only the one run on turf after a very mixed or up and down run on dirt. Her only run on turf was last time out at Allowance level where, wait for it, she ran a smashing 91 over 8 furlongs. No wonder the trainer has slammed her into this race. So this one could well be gracing the papers and cameras at the end of this race. Only one run on turf but looked sensational in that run.
9 JOHANNIE CARA(KY)
Owner: zambaygo
Record: 8-3-2-0
Earnings: $92,320
Jockey: S Vincent
Odds: 11/1
First thing I notice here is she has run two races on an off track both of which she won. Unfortunately this race is not an off track so you are out of luck here. I’d keep her on that off track as much as you can by the looks of those two runs. Best speed on a firm turf track is 84 where she ran second in an Allowance. Will need to improve that significantly here at G1 level and I think she will be struggling. Put her on an off track and I’ll back her every time.
10 LITE ON MY FEET(JPN)
Owner: sonofsham
Record: 6-4-2-0
Earnings: $471,980
Jockey: B Ironmike
Odds: 4/1
One of the more favoured runners here she has certainly been lite on her feet alright with 4 wins from 6 outings and great speeds of 95 and 91 last runs out. She got her last win in the G3 Honey Dew Stakes at the beginning of October and then backed that up 3 weeks later with a speed of 91 and a second place finish in the G1 Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf Filly. Will be there at the end here no question about that and I think she can take this out for either first or second place and give her trainer and herself a nice little Xmas bonus.
11 BISTRO(KY)
Owner: super24
Record: 7-3-1-1
Earnings: $142,555
Jockey: C Shoemaker
Odds: 9/1
After debuting on dirt and running ok with a second and third place her best results the trainer in super24 swapped her over to turf where she got 3 wins on the trot including a Stakes and G3 win. Lately her speeds have been in the high eighties and looking better with each run. I think she looks to me like a G3 runner maybe a G2. I think this is slightly above where she can perform but still her trainer is giving her another shot at this level after running a seventh in the G1 Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf Filly last time out. Mid to high finish I think.
12 HANNAH’S FLYER(ENG)
Owner: rharfbeam1
Record: 7-5-1-1
Earnings: $582,644
Jockey: A Rolling
Odds: 9/2
Who is Hannah? I don’t know but regardless this is her flyer and boy can she fly. The favourite of the race her last run was a absolutely storming run with a speed of 98 in the G2 Silver Spoon Juvenile resulting in a win by over 2 lengths over 8 furlongs. Having had a months break since that race she looks fresh and ready to go here. Her previous run was a win in the G1 Graduation Stakes and with 5 wins from 7 outings I can’t go past this one. Put all your money on her cause she will win here today.
13 MONARCH’S PRIZE(OK)
Owner: 2furlongs
Record: 8-5-1-0
Earnings: $240,030
Jockey: J Benisz
Odds: 14/1
Having seen what Hannah’s Flyer can run, Monarch’s Prize here out of Monarch’s Maze will need to pick up her speed significantly to have any chance. Best speed is 89 last time at Stakes level which was a win so she is brimming with confidence. Has won at G3 level early in her career and does have 5 wins from her 8 outings so she can definitely put it together on the day. Maybe a place at best for this one if she runs her best race.
So my picks for this one are and they are only my picks. As has been shown many a time my picks count for nothing. So why do I keep putting my picks up for you may well ask. Good point why do I? Maybe I shouldn’t bother. I tell you what Ill put my picks up and I’d love to hear your comments in the main forum on this race on what your thoughts are or whether you agree or disagree with me. Don’t forget as I will be watching the forum for those comments hey…
Ok my picks:
12 HANNAH’S FLYER(ENG)
10 LITE ON MY FEET(JPN)
2 RANADAN(MD)