Topicount Special

                                    Del Penn Championship Day

                                    Topicount Special- Grade I
                                   A mile and one half- Fast Dirt
                                   $2,000,000 All Horses 3 and Up   

Welcome to the 6^th edition of the Topicount Special on Del Penn Championship Day. The race is the final one on the card in NY (race 16) although this series of races spans many tracks. Tiz Vegas won the inaugural event in a steppy 121 spf back in 2003. In 2004 the race was won by Masterofyourdomain in a 114. Wonderboy Cougar avenged his narrow defeat in 04 by winning the 05 incarnation at 10furlongs. In 06 the race was stretched to its current distance of 12f and Kowboy was the victor in an spf of 103. Last year the legendary Solar Song took home the treasure and there was twice as much to take home; as the purse was doubled to two million smackers. Solar Song covered the course in 112. So while this race has changed distances and now moves to NY it still boasts a proud tradition of winners and carries the name of a top level trainer. The namesake trainer also has one in the race and is one of the benefactors of this great day of racing. With a tip of my cap, I salute those that make this championship day happen, and so as to not become involved in any simmering controversy over recent residency changes, I will leave it at that. Those that make this day happen know who they are, and they know that all members of the sim are grateful for their Herculean efforts in making this day happen.

It is always great to have the very best horses in NY and when the are going a mile and half over the test of champions it is even more special so lets take a look at the field that will vying to etch their name into the record books on Saturday.

The Field

PP 1 MARMELO(IRE) Tr jayjay JKY B Child ML 7/1

The 5 year old son of Refuse to Bend is a few coins shy of a half million dollars in lifetime earnings. He reeled off 4 straight wins at the open stakes level earlier this year before running third in the BB Marathon. The horse is a real hard worker and this will be his 6^th start in 4 months. The question marks on this guy are his lack of success at the graded level and perhaps his grueling campaign. One thing is for sure it seems and that is that Marmelo will go the lead and try to take this field wire to wire. If for some reason he is not leading at the first call its likely you can tear up your tickets as his only career clunkers have come when he was unable to make the lead.

PP 2 DANCE STEPS(KY)  TR twoofus2 JKY Q Simien ML 9/1

The 3 year old son of Seeking the Gold had been knocking on the door of the big races before kicking it down back in May when stretching out to 11f. Since then he has put together a string of top performances at this distance or near it. He has 3 G1 scores on his card and ran second in the third jewel and the BB marathon. Quite a season for this one huh? He has had a grueling campaign in pushing his lifetime earnings over 1.6 million dollars. When at his best the leader will feel Dance Steps hot breath blowing on their throat latch. He is a stalker who likes to press a leader before taking him down in the lane. Being just outside the likely early speed seems a perfect spot.

PP 3 MR. BLUE(KY) TR congaree2 JKY I Torres ML 50/1

The morning line tells you a lot about the three year old son of Eavesdropper’s chances. He is a fine looking colt who has a bright future beyond Saturday. This may be a test to see what Congaree2 can expect from this colt in next years campaign. He is a front runner so expect him to be involved in the early pace scenario and he could have a big impact on the race if he manages to make the lead. He has one win lifetime so don’t expect too much.

PP 4 FORTY SHORT(AUS) TR helenus JKY S Schauer ML 12/1

This 3 year old son of Encosta De Lago has really come on as the season has progressed and this race is a measuring stick for him as well. Unlike some others in the race Forty Short’s spfs say he belongs in this race if he can carry his speed at this level and distance. This is his first attempt at the graded level but he has improved in leaps and bounds since his claim, bet old db2 is a tad bitter about the improvement as well. It is his first try at the distance as well but this deep closer has given every indication that the extra ground will be to his liking.

PP 5 ROCKINGHAM(KY) TR fairhaven4 JKY W McClendon ML 9/1

This 4 year old son of Woodman was a part of the Evil Empire’s dominance on Breeders Bowl Saturday winning the BB Marathon going away. This deep closer comes on late like he was riding a rocket. He threw a clunker in his last race but seems to follow up on bad performances with quality runs. If they go fast up front, and it looks like they will, it may set this guy up to pick up the pieces. Don’t be shocked to see Darth Vader Lenny in the winners circle again.

PP 6 NO WALKING AT DAWN TR meguire7th JKY L Hoskins ML 10/1

The Irish bred son of Footstepsinthesand is a three year old I am familiar with. That is because one of my best horses chased him from a distance during his commanding victory in the Blazing Saddles Classic. I will be pulling for the rez champ but he does have some questions to answer in here. The 115 looks sweet but often restricted race spfs do not hold up in open ones. Also the distance is a question mark as he has never gone over 10 before this one. This guy won his trainer a sweet FTO winner named The Big Stick http://derbyfever.com/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=92766 so even if he does not show up here expect an extra carrot or two for this one.

PP 7 LIGHTWORK(IRE) TR simsters4  JKY N Lawton ML 12/1

The 4 year old son of North Light gets NY’s top Jock in the stirrups due to all the outside talent that must be around. If this guy was a filly he’d be the little girl with a curl because when he’s good he’s very, very good and when he’s not… well you know the rest. The only explanation I can venture is this guy must have the lead to win and he has a ton of speed to his inside so this ones chances may be based on the first two furlongs as much as the last two. If he gets to the top he could score, but I expect the early speed to be blistering and perhaps damaging so beware.

PP 8 XTRA WELCOME(KY) TR ejdstable JKY O Osbourne ML 6/1

The lightly raced 4 year old out of Unbridled’s Song has put together a very pretty chart as far as Speed figured go, but it has come against lesser. The 240k in the bank pales with the hauls of many in this race and it may point to a chink in this ones formidable looking armor. Is he up to it against tougher foes? That seems to me to be a handicapping no no, taking a short priced horse that has questions about level. On the positive side if he runs back to pretty much any effort other than his last graded try he should be right in the mix at the wire. His mid pack style should be an asset in a race that looks like it will favor it. Only knock is the underlay.

PP 9 BENEDICTION(IRE) TR thethumb2 JKY B Gulch ML 26/1

This 3 year old son of Sadler’s Wells (surprisingly if you don’t force a mare you can actually get a Sadler’s colt) is the flip side of the morning line debate. His long odds are based on low speed figures created by dominating wins. If his competition in those races were better he might be as low as 10-1. That said he may not be as good as those wins as he has yet to face a field of this quality. This however is the kind of price you want to get when that is the issue. He has a beautiful pedigree and flashed big talent and pace versatility. If you want a live long shot he may be your guy.

PP 10 TAHARKA(KY) TR willyam47 JKY M Buck ML 6/1

The 4 year old son of Medaglia D’ora is a puzzler. He runs big enough to justify the low odds but he can also decide to use a race as a training event. He would certainly rise up the pick board if there was moisture in the track. The additional ground should be to his liking but once again I will say he does not stand out on paper the way you’d expect the co favorite to look. Does he like this distance? Is he ready to win vs g1 level horses? Still no reason he can’t win either. His style and speed make him a player but I can’t use him at 6-1.

PP 11 HOLLYWOOD FREAK(IRE) TR given3 JKY G Giant ML 22/1

The three year old son of Galileo is a rez champ too, but surprisingly the GRS champ is longer than the one from Blazing Saddles. He has showed he loves the distance and his run in the Muscles Mcgee shows he can hang with the best in this field. His training sheet is a thing of beauty. Lightly raced, fed confidence and brought into this race with a fairly good certainty that this is his prime distance. He is also a huge overlay at 22-1 given (if you pardon the pun) the length of his wins. Wide margin victories = lower speed figures = huge value for a bettor. He may not be my main play but you can be sure I play a saver or two here. If you dream about tote boards getting lit up this guy may be the one to do it.

PP 12 KISSIN STREETCRY(KY) TR sherwood JKY R Bokie ML 8/1 How does one start to build a case that is not in favor of  a sim legend like Kissin’ Streetcry? Why would you bother picking against the horse that nearly won the triple crown and is not even the favorite? He comes in off a nice layoff following a disappointing effort in the BB Classic but looked like he might want the added distance he gets here on BB day. With a win over this surface and at this distance back in the third classic he showed that at his best he can beat any field. You get a price, the right style for the expected pace duel and the safety of knowing you picked a possible HOY candidate. I can live with that.

PP 13 PINE SPIRIT(KY) TR topicount4  JKY M Turner ML 9/1

When you have a horse in the race that is named after you, you’d think the others would be decent enough to back off and let you win. However I doubt the 4 year old son of Arch can count on that type of “gentlemanly” behavior. No I guess if Pine Spirit is going to win he is going to have to reach back for the type of performance that made him the Smackdown winner back in July. His last two have been disappointing and I am not sure what can inspire you to believe this run will be much better other than the fact that the race is named after his trainer. You think that they might know what they are doing? Solid price for a horse with this much talent.

PP 14 BASH TO BITS(IRE) TR sender3 JKY P Wright ML 7/1

The 4 year old son of Giants Causeway comes into this race with solid speed numbers from open stakes races but lacks the big race background some of his foes have in spades. Certainly is in form coming a smashing win at this distance in his last race and the stalking style should yield the advantage of having first dibs at the tiring leaders. Another who would be higher on my list if there was moisture in the track but at 7-1 he is shorter than a multiple G1 winner or two. I can’t justify that from a handicapping standpoint but once again he has the talent to win.

The Picks

A lot of my selection making process is following the theory that there will be a fierce early pace war that will set up the horses who follow it. If you don’t see that then my selections are utterly without merit instead of just mostly without merit. With that said here’s how I see the race developing. I like Marmello to make the early lead but he will be pressed every step of the way and I see the consequence of his winning this battle is losing the war.  I see Kissin Streetcry, Rockingham and my long shot special Hollywood Freak picking up the pieces in what would an absolute BONANZA of a triple box. I will key Kissin over Hollywood Freak Rockingham and Marmello as well. One win bet on Hollywood Freak just in case. Good luck to all and thanks again to the folks who made this terrific race possible.