Two Year Olds Take On Touch

This week Maryland sees the DelPenn team conduct eight of their annual Grade 1 season closers. The race we cover here, the Mother Story Handicap is the final feature the year for the two year old fillies whose trainers have set them for the dirt mile. These are the fillies currently best placed to be featuring in the Oaks Triple Crown next May. Some of them will come through race with their dreams intact. The placegetters will go home knowing they have added significant points to their classic qualifying positions, as well as enhancing their standings in this year’s Eclipse Award considerations. And of course that’s all in addition to the half million dollars to be split up in prizemoney. Touch has earned the favorite’s position in the early market, with virtually all other runners being treated with due respect by the oddsmakers. Fourth Seal Opened, the outsider, will run around at 21/1

The early market this week is:

5/1 – Touch

7/1 – Insome Gold, Poison Arrow

9/1 – Arias, Encostacat, Six Oasis

10/1 – SDSD, Torch The Track

11/1 – Desideria

12/1 – Cole Valley

16/1 – Ken’s Mystery

17/1 – Respond To This, The Roof Is On

21/1 – Fourth Seal Opened

Looking through the field in betting order:

5/1 – Touch – (Touch Gold – La Secret (Seattle Slew / Secretariat)) – # 5 – She heads the betting due to an umblemished and still improving dirt route scorecard. Her last three have all been over the mile, she’s won each of them, and she’s registered times which are two lengths faster at each of those three. Will she shave a couple more lengths off in this weeks effort? Or will it be even more if she’s called on to find it? She deserves to be the measuring stick. Backnine can have every confidence in her ability to score her fourth consecutive mile win

7/1 – Insome Gold – (Invasor – AweGoldy (Awesome Again / Seeking The Gold)) – # 3 – She’s won her last four, and her most recent performance can only be described as astounding. Having to pull out all stops to hold in in the Grade 2 Golden Red Stakes, she added ten points to her previous best speed rating. That 99 is the highest number on the formguide. She, too, is unbeaten at the route and while she’d be happy to lead, she proved last start that she doesn’t need to. Tenpin8 knows a repeat of her last run will be nearly enough to take this out.

7/1 – Poison Arrow – (Bluegrass Cat / Machiavellian / Caerleon) – # 11 – Her three wins from five shows that she’s got what it takes. That bit of Grade 1 experience is also a plus against this level of competition. She’s still a long way from her best (and I think that best will probably come next season when the races get a little longer). Having said that, there’s nothing not to like in her form so far. A very handy 95 at just her fifth start paints her as one of those likely to be capable of hitting the triple digit mark, which will probably be required to take this out. Kevoman5 knows she will be working home in the stretch.

9/1 – Arias – (Corinthian – Zaragoza (Fusaichi Pegasus / Storm Cat)) – # 10 – This filly takes two big steps here. It’s the first time she’s tried the route, and it’s the first time she’s lined up against Graded opposition. She finishes off her races as though the extra trip will be more of a help than a hindrance. Her last four, all ungraded stakes, have seen her win two and run second in the other two. That inspires plenty of confidence in the question of her ability to handle the class. She probably needs to add about 8 points to her previous best to be a winning shot at this, but Limpid knows she’s nothing left to prove at the lower level.

9/1 – Encostacat – (Encosta De Lago / Storm Cat / Clever Trick) – # 13 – This filly has finished on the podium in six of her seven runs, so there’s no doubt she knows how to run a race. The last effort is of some concern, being the first time she’s tackled a Graded event, and the first time she’s finished beyond the placegetters. However, she did run a 93 in that G2-Golden Red Stakes, and that, combined with her previous good form, is enough for the bookmakers to show her plenty of respect. She’s two wins and a third from three at the mile and while Muninn240 knows she’ll need a personal best this week, her speed ratings have been taking significant jumps at each of her last four runs.

9/1 – Six Oasis – (Oasis Dream – Elrod’s Colonel (Kingmambo / Northern Jove)) – # 14 – Three wins and a second from four is the mile record of this improving filly. She’s another jumping straight from ungraded stakes to the ultimate level, but she’s shown enough recently to justify it. She’s a natural leader, so the wide barrier is of some concern and she’s likely, for the first time in her career, to face a serious challenge for the early lead. She’s added eight and seven points to her previous best speed ratings at each of her last two, and Given3 knows that a similar jump this week takes her to triple digits and a genuine winning chance.

10/1 – SDSD – (Any Given Saturday  – Adam’s Cat (Storm Cat / Raise A Native)) – # 1 – She’s a stakes winner last time out, and placed in the G1-Getaway Stakes the start before, so her opening price looks a tad generous, considering her most recent form. She’s chosen a tough assignment for her first run beyond the sprint distance, but she was closing late in the aforementioned Grade 1 and extending her lead in that last start stakes win. The distance should not be a problem and she’s drawn the best gate. She’ll need to find a few lengths as low 90’s won’t get her home in this but Ceclaim26 can have confidence in that fact that she’s shown she can handle this standard, and many of her opponents have not.

10/1 – Torch The Track – (Red Ransom  – Torch Song (Woodman / Seattle Slew)) – # 8 – If we forgive her last run, what do we have? Four wins in a row, culminating in victory in the G1-Frickazee Stakes, over the route distance. She’s the only Grade 1 winner in the race. Perhaps those framing the market should have concentrated on that fact rather than over-emphasizing her last start Grade 2 fourth, which in itself was not a bad run. It’s probably going to take triple digits to win this, so she’ll need to find a few lengths on her previous best, but Gradetwo has a filly which has scaled the highest peak. The others haven’t.

11/1 – Desideria – (Bluegrass Cat – Mach Nine (Machiavellian / El Gran Senor)) – # 9 – In the money at each of her last seven, statistically her worst finish was in her most recent outing. How bad was that? Tackling both the route distance, and Grade 1 company for the first time, she ran third in the premiere event for her class, The Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly. I find it difficult to align her price with her three consecutive wins prior to running third in that feature. She added five points to her personal best speed rating last time out, so needs only a similar improvement to be right in the mix here. Legacy will be aware that she represents great value and stable supporters will be lining up to place their bets.

12/1 – Cole Valley – (Kingmambo – Ash Highway (Danzig / Storm Cat)) – # 4 – Lightly raced, she’s had just the four runs, won two with two seconds and added substantial numbers to her speed ratings at each subsequent start. She’s won her only attempt at the route mile. She does make a huge jump in class here and with a triple digit speed figure the likely requirement, she’ll need to shave a second and a half off that most recent winning time. Perhaps her biggest advantage is that she’s inexperienced enough to be able to find those extra lengths. Socalman can be confident that she’s going a long way in the future, and could take her biggest step this weekend

16/1 – Ken’s Mystery – (Silver Deputy  – Lemon Or Lime (Galileo / Lemon Drop Kid)) – # 6 – Facing the starter for the ninth time, she’s another taking a huge step up in competition. Having said that, two starts back she was a handy allowance filly. A spike in speed figures saw her graduate to stakes racing, where another huge numbers boost saw her finish a good second. She’ll need a third consecutive enormous lift to be a winning chance in this ‘triple digit’ event. While I don’t see her as that winning chance, it would come as no surprise to see her run a top race. Lordbear3 knows she has had a solid grounding, and is now displaying the benefits of that early experience.

17/1 – Respond To This – (Gone West / Seattle Slew / Northern Dancer) – # 7 – She’s being harshly treated in the betting market for a somewhat surprising, and unsuccessful, experiment on the grass last start. Prior to that her form was virtually faultless. Four consecutive wins, two of the over a mile, culminating in victory in the G2-Walnut Tree Stakes. The 1.36.6 of that win is a lot slower than the time they’ll run in this, but who knows what she may have posted had she kept to these conditions last time out. If you like to back a roughie, she may be the one. Sender2 has a Graded stakes winner. Only two other runners share that statistic

17/1 – The Roof Is On F– (Red Clubs / Le Fabuleux / Red Ryder) – # 12 – We’re well into the outsiders now, and it’s a measure of the depth of this field, that we’re still looking at very good horses. Although her best win was recorded in an owner restricted stakes, the sponsors of this carnival put on owner restricted events every bit as good as the sim in general. Her only tilt at Graded racing saw her miss the podium, but still take home a check in a full field. Despite her breeding, she’s shown massive improvement in her two dirt runs and Photonic can approach the race, aware that she’s a longshot, but confident that she can run a better race than her price would suggest.

21/1 – Fourth Seal Opened – (Devil His Due – No More Lies (Slew O’Gold / Forty Niner)) – # 2 – She’s earned her tilt at this via that early victory in the G3-Arizona Shootout, and a couple of handy runs in dirt route stakes races. But she’s also lined up for her last two starts in Grade 1 company. And been found wanting. She’s the only runner never to register a speed in the 90’s, despite having been to the track eight times. She’s the outsider, and I can’t make any sort of case to dispute that position. Even Kerikow must concede that this is a ‘Don Quixote’ attempt.

Summary: As we’d expect in a two year old feature of this stature, finding a winner is a bit of a dartboard exercise. While the favorites have earned their quotes through top performances in impressive times, some of the lesser lights need only an ounce of luck to feature in the finish. Touch is a deserving favorite. Insome Gold is racing in superlative form, Poison Arrow is ready to step up to the elite. Arias is developing impressively, Encostacat loves the trip, Six Oasis has shown brilliance at the mile, SDSD has proven herself to be Graded quality, Torch The Track is the only Grade 1 winner here, Desideria is a model of consistency, Cole Valley is lightly raced and still improving rapidly, Ken’s Mystery has taken enormous bounds in her last two, Respond To This is the best value runner in the race, The Roof Is On F is capable of being the surprise packet while Fourth Seal Opened is the only runner in a position to cause a totally unexpected boilover

Selections:

Insome Gold – Can’t Ignore her heart. Or that 99.

Torch The Track – Ridiculous price for the only Grade 1 winner.

Respond To This – Graded winner again way over the odds. She’s the across the board bet.