The Frugal Shin Memorial
The sprinters do battle in this weeks feature at Newmarket, the $80,000 Frugal Shin Memorial over 6f on the turf. Bookmakers have installed a 5-1 favourite which goes to show the openess of the race on paper.
1- End in Ski 11-1; 5yo Numerous gelding with 11 wins from 30 starts. He was a last start winner in ALW grade and that run was on the back of 5 unplaced efforts in Stakes grade. Despite the return to form last time, I cant see him being competitive here based on his prior runs and he’d need to return to his form from of 6mths ago to be a chance here.
2- Desert Nasu 11-1; 1st of the runners from one of the worlds greatest stables, the Sabbath/Racelord yard, and 1 of 3 starters that was bred by the great man. He is another that comes into this race out of form, having been unplaced at his last 6 in this grade. Ratings wise he has been pretty consistant, but I’d suggest he needs further than 6f to show his best form.
3- Nasu Montsegur 11-1; 2nd of Sabbaths runners, and this one has much better credentials than his stablemate over this distance. He was 3rd and then 4th at his last 2 starts in this grade, and those efforts followed a defeat on a wet track that should be overlooked when assessing his chances. That run came on the back of a G3 placing and an ALW win. Good value at 11-1.
4- Williamette Valley 7-1; Seeking The Gold 4yo that has been out of the winners stall for quite sometime. Although he has been racing very consistantly, his best form appears to be at 7/7.5f and i’m not sure I could come into him on a win line at those odds, despite the fact he remains a very very strong place chance. Watch for him late.
5- Beating The Odds 7-1; Son of little known sire Oratory with a record of 10 from 26. This horse has some of the best recent form in the field having won 2 of his last 3, and despite the fact that he too appears better suited over slightly further, his class shoud carry him a long way in this event. He has the speed to be prominent early, and i think he is one of the main chances in the race.
6- Tripping On Acid 12-1; Interestingly named son of Dansili coming into this off 2 straight wins in ALW grade. His 3 most recent Satkes runs have resulted in a 9th, 13th, and 7th and that evidence is enough to suggest he wont figure here.
7- Shamnasu 25-1; Bred by Racelord but now trained by ITALST3, this colt has put together a decent enough record over the past year. He had the benefit of being Str Alw eligible earlier this year and that resulted in a few easy kills, and since coming out of that grade has been responsible for 2 ALW wins, and a Stakes win – all in this distance range. On ratings alone he cant win, but I’ve seen worse 25-1 shots before. Very sneaky place chance.
8- Soul Of Sioux 28-1; The only 3yo in the event, and well over the odds in my opinion. He took on the older horses last start, and was a closing 4th in quite fast time. That effort was his 1st run since going amiss in a 3yo Stakes race back in October, and whilst his prior form was consistant without being outstanding, he is a major player here for mine at very juicy odds.
9- Freedom Now 8-1; Last start Stakes winner in very fast time and is sure to be figuring in the finish here. He has a good record at the distance, his most recent performance being a 2nd in Stks grade on a yielding surface 3 runs back. Will get back, but there appears to be enough early speed to bring him into the race late on.
10- Apmat 10-1; Son of Diesis that has been racing exclusively in ALW grade and makes the step up to Stakes racing for the 1st time. Has won 2 of last 3, and has been placed at his last 4 straight. Despite the consistant nature of his form, Im reluctant to tip them first time up in grade and I’d prefer to see him go around first. Good odds if you like him though.
11- Brego 6-1; Clearly the one to beat, and suprisingly not the favourite. Champion jockey A.Craig takes the mount on this 6f specialist, and he has very strong credentials for an event of this type. Beaten 1.75L in a G1 last start after spotting the leaders 6l on the turn, that run followed on from 2 dominant Stakes wins. In fact his 3 recent defeats have all come in G1 events, barring those, he’d of won 4 of his last 5. Looks the winner.
12- Jack’s Magpie 5-1; Race favourite that has won 9 of 33, including a 112 at this trip 4 runs back. Has met Brego twice recently and has finished behind him on both occassions, and it is hard to find a reason why he will beat him home this time. Unquestionably, he is a major player but he needs to turn it around on Brego to be a winning hope.
13- Be Sharp Er 14-1; Very inconsistant son of Came Home, that has been out of the winners stall for sometime. Whilst on some occassions he has found himself competitive in this grade, on others he has struggled in ALW grade in slow time. At his top he is a place chance, but couldn’t see him winning.
14- Super Light 14-1; Is eligible for much easier having only won 2 MCOS races. Despite that, he has been racing out of grade at Stakes level, winning one and being placed2 of his last 5. Interestingly he was only beaten 1.5L by Jack’s Magpie 5 runs back, yet he is almost triple th eprice as that horse here. Not the worst.
Brego looks the winner here.