Fuzzy Math Memorial – Grade 1
The Fuzzy Math Memorial Stakes feature 11 3yo fillies, who take one of the last chances to take on horses of the same age, before having to jump into the open fields. The 7.5f Grade 1 trip drew several great looking fillies, but none greater than Miscalculation, the one-time hot as a megastar horse has come somehow to earth, but looks to rebound after her Breeders Cup failure. But let’s take an in-depth look on the field that tackles the fast dirt:
#1 INSINCERE(KY) 7/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=111842
14 Races – 5 Wins – 103,931$
This nice A.P. Indy filly had established herself as a good ALW horse this autumn, in her last 5 races she ran 100+ speeds in sprints, which resulted in 2 ALW wins and 2 2nds, however her only Graded start so far she found a tough field and only finished 6th, but against older horses. In her last race she made a huge performance jump, it has to be seen, if the 107 was a one race outburst wonder, or if she can run those speeds consistently. Despite breaking her maiden in a mile race, she almost reversed to sprinting completly recently, perhaps the stretch from 6-6.5f up to the tricky 7.5f distance will do her good.
#2 SILVER SPLENDOR(KY) 16/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=64310
19 Races – 6 Wins – 447,740$
The Badge of Silver filly is a very sharp looking filly, however most of her success has come in the turf, and thats where she won a Grade 3 in July. Recently she tried the trick back on dirt, and finished 4th in the Grade 3 Dolly prummond Stakes. However her speed of 100 and her career best 102 on dirt make her look a troubled horse. She likely will not have the pace and class to keep up with the best in this race, as it looks a 105 will be needed at least to finish in the money.
#3 KARAVAN(SAF) 17/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=137501
21 Races – 3 Wins – 51,654$
Whenever I see a German Bred horse I get a smile all over my face, as it’s nice to see your home country, as small as it is in the Horse Racing World, have some influence, well for this one, actually it is South African based, as Silvano was born in Germany, but now stands in SAF, and on the other hand, if you look at the performances of this horse, it’s tough not to shake your head. With a life time high of 100 over 7f dirt, and 2 ALW wins in her last 6 races, this race will be way over her head. Looks to be outclassed all the way.
#4 MISCALCULATION(KY) 4/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=148868
12 Races – 8 Wins – 1,739,120$
Winning her first 7 races, and 3 of them Grade 1s, The Unbridled’s Song filly was the talk of the summer, unforgotten her speed duell with Vheissu, who beat her by half a length back in June, her first and most discussed loss. Since then Miscalculation has found out, that the world of horse racing becomes tougher, as you have more races under your belt. We all hope she can rebound, and find back her winning ways, as her last win dates from a restricted stakes race in August. Last time out, the Breeders Bowl Mare Sprint was one of her worst races, she faced older horses, and only finished 6th, the 104 still ok, but not quite what the wonder filly can do. Look for her to enjoy the trip, and chase down the field to score again here, the race looks perfect for her.
#5 LA SAYONA(VEN) 10/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=151640
10 Races – 8 Wins – 139,960$
Well, an 80% win-pct. Can be misleading some days, this Bestyoucanbe filly is all ALW class, she ran 8 of her 10 races in ALW class, her only Grade 1 appearance in the Euqinics was a disaster, she finished 9th, in the race, that could have shown her class. Most of her ALW wins came rather unchallenged, and so it is tough to say, if the 103 she ran 2 back is all she can give. Sometimes horses find it easier to run fast times in fields they control, sometimes vice versa, we’ll find out a lot more about her today. 7.5f is the longest trip she ran in her career, so far only 6 and 6.5fs made her ALW wins. Let’s look what she can do, at least she’s used to winning.
#6 BASSETT GIRL(KY) 6/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=28162
24 Races – 7 Wins – 350,105$
The Woodmann filly on first look seems a real challenger, she finished in the money in 7 of her last 8 races, however the one she only finished 6th is the one to focus on, cause it was run over 7.5f, and she really faltered on the stretch, falling from 2nd to 6th, so it looks like she really doesn’t have the stamina. Her lifetime best is a 104 over 6.5f, which is competitive, however the 7.5f race was a 97 only. She had 5 races to mature since then, and perhaps now found somemore stamina, which has to be seen.
#7 CARDBOARD HERO(KY) 9/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=149287
16 Races – 6 Wins – 134,773$
The Grand Slam filly faces a tough trip, despite her recent wins, the stamina over 7.5f may be a thing to doubt with her, as she usually was caught on the stretch, once the races got longer than 6.5f, her last race was an easy 5.5f ALW win, but before she found trouble with 100 speeds over 7.5f and 7f. Her class overall looks a little short for todays field.
#8 ESPRIT DE CORPS(AUS) 7/2
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=153395
13 Races – 6 Wins – 303,350$
The early morning favourite is by Encosta de Lago, and looks the real class of the race, she was 2nd last time out in a mile Grade 2 race, and ran that 8f in a 113, winning a Stakes race before with a 110 over 8f shows she has all kind of speed and enough stamina to handle the 7.5f trip easy. She won 2 Stakes races in her career, and really battled tough for 2 2nd place finishes in Graded company. She likes to take the lead early, and battles tough to keep it till the end, look for a classic stretch duell with Miscalculation, as she’ll try to chase down Esprit de Corps, who’ll need to get a good lead early.
#9 JILLIAN(KY) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=162354
12 Races – 4 Wins – 70,325$
The 3yo Empire Maker filly is ready to step up into Stakes class for the first time, and what a huge step it will be, right into the Grade 1 field, with superstar Miscalculation, last time out she ran a career best 108 over 7f, and now will test, if the extra half furlong will be a problem, she’s constantly gotten better over the last 3 races, and looks to have found her home in sprinting, now it’s time to find out, if she’s a good ALW horse, or if she can make the transition into a stakes horse jumping into Grade 1 right away.
#10 TROPIC THUNDER(KY) 7/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=137233
18 Races – 6 Wins – 142,423$
The Tapit filly comes into the race on 3 straight ALW wins, and like Jillian she makes the jump from ALW class right into Grade 1, as she likes to stalk the pace, it seems a perfect fit, as we can expect Esprit de Corps set a nice speed for her to stalk on, in her last 3 races she easily cracked 100, resulting in a lifetime high 106 last time out, not really ready to challenge for a Grade 1, but good enough to make another huge improvement. It seems she gets better as the winter gets tougher, and todays conditions can be a perfect fit.
#11 PRECIOUS PETAL(KY) 16/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=139410
16 Races – 4 Wins – 206,110$
Another filly, coming off 2 nice ALW wins, and now making the jump to Grade 1 class, however she already has some stakes experience, and a 2nd place back in July. Last time out she ran the mile in a 101, coming on a sloppy ground, and setting a new career best, she looks more like a miler, but at 7.5f, this is exactly the place, for milers to challenge the sprinter. However, she looks like way off the class of the best races in this race.
Look for Miscalculation to chase Esprit de Corps, those 2 are clearly above the field in experience and class, however a horse like Jillian or Tropic Thunder may make a huge jump in class, and challenge the 2.