Juvenile filles return for encore in Minstrel Net Bonanza

In an encore to last week’s feature race, Virginia invites back the two year old filly sprinters for this week’s Minstrel Net Bonanza. They’ll go a sixteenth further this week, at six and a half furlongs, and the turf is once again rated as firm for the event. The purse is one of the largest of the year for Virginia racing, with $60000 to share among the intrepid entrants. This is the fourth annual running of the race, won last year by the oddsmakers’ second choice Etrusca(ENG) who handily took the short field gate to wire for a three length victory. In fact, all three runnings of this race have been won in wire to wire fashion and all by over a length. This year’s race draws five entries, and they look to be fairly well matched. Oddsmakers have chosen a 9/5 favorite, but what qualifies as the longshot in this race goes off at a rather slim 5/1 odds. Odds of 5/2, 3/1 and 7/2 are sandwiched in the middle. Payouts look to be a bit on the low side once again here for the avid handicappers out there.

PP 1) Hoof Heart Adieu(FR) Sired by Anabaa, Trained by photonic. Hoof Heart Adieu(FR) takes the gate for her eighth career start in this race. This will be her third foray into stakes competition, and she is still looking for her first win at this level. Her first seven starts have watched her run to a 1-0-2-1-1 record, with a top speed number of 70.7 earned on a yielding track in her maiden victory. Her last start was a seven and a half furlong stakes in Louisiana, where she never really found her legs, running third in a field of four out eight and a half lengths. Seven of eight starts have been on turf, and she has missed collecting a paycheck only once. Her top speed and her only win came at six furlongs, though she showed some decent speed in her losing effort last out at seven and a half. She looks to be more comfortable in a sprint though, so this distance should suit her. She generally likes to stalk from the head of midpack, but has had trouble hanging on on a firm surface. This is not an overly fast field, but she does face some better, more consistent speed here. If we had an off track here, I could recommend her, but on the firm turf, I’m going to have to take a pass this time around.

PP 2) O Two(KY) Sired by Mr. Greeley, Trained by honeylu2. O Two(KY) makes her seventh career appearance in this start. She is one of only two prior stakes winners in this short field, capturing her first stakes win last time out. Overall for her first six, she’s gone 2-1-1-0-2, capping her speeds with a 74.7 number last time out. That race was a stakes at this distance in New Hampshire, where she trounced a field of four by two lengths behind a strong second half effort. All six starts have been on turf, and with four of them reulting in top three finishes, there hasn’t been the need to experiment with surface choice. She’s also made five of six starts in the six to six and a half furlong range, bucking the odds in nearly all of them, never finishing worse than fifth, and never at less than 7/1 odds. She’s a deep closers, and outside a couple clunkers, her close has looked fairly good. All the speed should be out in front of her in this one, giving her plenty of room to move in the second half. If she can stay in touch in what looks to be a faster first half, a repeat of her last could put her right in the mix here.

PP 3) Translucence(KY) Sired by Forestry, Trained by alexxx69. Translucence(KY) Will make her seventh career start here, coming into this one as the favorite to land in the winner’s circle. She’s taken her first steps up to stakes in her last two starts, with a pair of third place finishes to show for them. She looks to get that first stakes win here. She’s posted a 0-1-4-0-0 record in her first six, with a best speed figure of 73.0 coming two starts back. Her last race was a stakes at this distance on a tough Eastern Kentucky track, where she stayed in touch without ever really making a move, to finish third in a field of four fillies. Four of six career starts have been on turf, and they have accounted for the bulk of her earnings, as well as the closest chance she’s had at breaking her maiden, back in her turf debut. So far, it looks like the shorter the better in terms of the distance she prefers with her best finish and her top speed both coming at the five and a have furlong distance. Her new trainer has dialed back her start speeds a bit, putting her into a more of a stalker’s role, but just as she has had some trouble hanging on behind her faster starts, she’s had some trouble closing the gap from off the pace. The extra furlong beyond her best runs probably won’t help her here. Look for her to be right in the fray early, but unless she has something she hasn’t shown yet, she’ll likely be losing ground rather than gaining it in the second half.

PP 4) You Go Girl(KY) Sired by Borrego, Trained by monica. You Go Girl(KY) is the least experienced of the entrants here, making only her fifth career start, but she’s been quietly making a name for herself in those first four. She’s the second of the two previous stakes winners in this field, simply pounding a short field in her last to grab her first victory at this level. She’s 2-1-0-1-0 in her first four, showcasing a top speed of 70.5 two starts back. Her last race was a six furlong stakes in Puerto Rico, where she simply ran away from a short field, going gate to wire for a three and three quarter length victory. After a passable run on dirt in her debut, a switch to turf netted her a nice speed boost, along with a pair of wins and a place in her next three, and this filly looks to see a lot more turf running for her career. She’s unbeaten in her two starts at six furlongs, with her place coming when she stretched out to seven furlongs, two starts back. She breaks at a pace that would put her at the head of the midpack, but in each of her first four, that has given her at least a piece of the early lead. This will likely be the first time she sees any real speed out in front of her, and it will be interesting to see how she reacts to that situation. If she tries to duke this one out early, it may be a rough second half for her. If she can show some close though, she could be dangerous down the stretch.

PP 5) Billie’s Babe(KY) Sired by Johar, Trained by plumridge. Billie’s Babe(KY) makes career start number eight in this race. While she’s no stranger to stakes competition, with five starts, she’s still seeking that elusive first stakes victory. She’s run to a 2-1-0-1-0 record in her first seven, showcasing a top speed of 79.0 two starts back. Her last race was amn eight furlong dirt stakes in Ottawa, where she simply ran out of gas in the second half, dropping from first to a long out last in a field of eleven. Four of seven starts have been on dirt, but she has generally shown better speed and a stronger second half performance in her turf starts. She’s been stretching out a bit in her last three starts, and it hasn’t really paid dividends. I think the slight drop back in distance could help her here. Another thing that could help her here is the field composition. It is quite likely that for the first time in her career, she could have a clear cut lead early, with the possibility of being able to build a fair cushion in the first half. Her odds could be inflated here due to some of the speed numbers she put up on dirt. With a clean break, in a race that has traditionally favored the front runners, I’m going to go out on a limb here and give her the nod in this one.