Classic rematch in Kentucky

While Demeco has proven that he loves the Breeders Bowl Classic distance of 10 furlongs, that may have been what did in the Super Stables’ SAN PELLEGRINO. A score in the Grade I Michael Strike followed by a runner-up finish in the Grade I Bob Woodward Memorial earned this 5yo brown son of War Chant a place in the Classic. However, San Pellegrino’s big races came at nine furlongs, and he would be asked to handle an extra furlong on BB day. It was a challenge he did not handle, finishing a disappointing 10th. Breeders Bowl day belong to the Evil Empire, not the Super One. It’s back to the drawing board here, and back to this horse’s preferred distance of nine furlongs. While the Super Stables are backed with plenty of top stock from invested breedings, they’re also backed with years of experience in the Sim. They usually do what is right for their horses. Even the bluest of bloods need proper placement, and the Super outfit does the right thing by San Pellegrino here, putting him back where he has proven he can compete successfully. San Pellegrino has run four bang-up races in a row at a mile and an eighth, not to mention a win and a place in his last two Grade 2 races. At his proper conditions, San Pellegrino can be expected to run his race. It remains to be seen if that translates into defeating the Breeders Bowl champ. I think you’d have to say it’s very probable that Saturday’s conditions translate into an on-the-board finish for this horse. He’s closed to be second more than twice before, and it looks like that’s the kind of trip we can foresee for San Pellegrino, unless he’s feeling really froggy and wants to try to keep his head in front of Demeco.

Mrlucky’s LUCKY’S MASH got a look at Demeco two back. It was from a distance. This deep-closing 3yo light gray son of With Approval was having one of one of those days, are closers are want to do, that he did not fire. Unfortunately for this colt, those days are getting far too frequent of late. He’s been off the board in six of his last nine races, which is the bad news. There is, indeed, good news: When this horse fires, he’s capable of a big score. Yes indeed, it was only three races ago that Lucky’s Mash came running in the Grade 2 Clerk of Scales in Ontario, getting up in a short field of seven to win. He also fired last out, gaining big ground late in a full field to be a close-up third in the non-graded Blazing Saddles Classic Prep. Only thing was, Lucky’s Mash was not prepping for the Blazing Saddles race, he was prepping to take on the Breeders Bowl champ in Kentucky. It’s worth noting that Lucky’s Mash makes his first start against elders here. Now, it’s late in the year and it’s time, but it’s still something new and something which a colt must prove he can do. It’s also true that Demeco is a 3yo, and pulled the first-race-against-elders track last time out in the grandest of all fashions. However, that one was a champ on a seven-race winning streak. This is a sometimes-firing deep closer who has been beaten badly by a lot of horses not even in the same neighborhood as Demeco. Tall task facing this colt.

With his late-running style, ROCK HARD KORN does not win many, as evidenced by his four-for-17 career record. But, as Qwikvett knows, he’s capable of hitting the board in any class the Sim has to offer, no matter how high. He certainly proved that last out, when he beat a ton of top horses when second in the Breeders Bowl Classic. At one point in early stretch, it appeared Rock Hard Korn had a huge chance to win it all, as he was the first horse coming at leader THE KID STU. Rock Hard Korn went by, and for a few jumps very late in the Classic, had a clear lead. By then however, it was apparent that Demeco was coming with a rush that would not be denied. While Qwikvett’s colt could not hold the winner, he was a clear second, and better than almost all of the Sim’s elite. There is not much speed in here at all, so we may encounter a different pace scenario here than we had in the Classic, especially considering the race is a furlong shorter. Class-wise, Rock Hard Korn faces a much softer field here today. While several of the would-be contenders in here already have shown they are not in Demeco’s league, Rock Hard Korn has tangled respectably with the big fellow in the stretch. This is a powerful, rangy colt as evidenced by his triumph going 11 furlongs in May. He’s got a grinding, wear-em-out closing style that looms with potency. He gets a rematch with the champ today.

Of the two 3yo colts which MrLucky has entered in this race, LUCKY’S CARPET surely must be the most promising of the two. No knock on Lucky’s Mash, as he is a nice colt capable of some big things, but it will come as to insult to Ohio Thoroughbred Racing (NICEEE SILKS !!!! GO BUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!) to say that Lucky’s Carpet looks just like a keg of dynamite right now. This sharp-looking brown son Kingmambo is just now starting to stretch his racing legs. Months ago, he nearly qualified for the Bluegrass Derby. Lucky’s Carpet was second, beaten only one and a quarter lengths back in March in a Derby Lock prep, the Grade 2 All Saints Derby. From there, he was a well-beaten ninth in the Florida Derby, and LC was forever off the Bluegrass Derby trail. It had to be a stinging disappointment for MrLucky, but didn’t it turn out just fine for this rapidly blossoming soon-to-be-4yo colt? This horse ought be ready to explode with that Kingmambo blood, and that he might be doing just that with a two-race winning streak coming in here, and three of his last four. This colt has won two Grade 3’s in his last four races, and was an impressive deep-closing third in the Grade I Swamps Stakes. Granted, those were all against 3yos only, and this will be his first race againt older horses. It’s a big day and big challenge, but Lucky’s Carpet looks oh-so-ready to meet any challenge. It will be very interesting to see what this fiery colt might have in store for the BB champ here on Saturday. Right now, he doesn’t believe he should be losing any races. With his pressing action at this distance and comfortable familiarity having gone nine furlongs three races in a row now, it’s easy to see Lucky’s Carpet inheriting the lead at the head of the stretch. Demeco ought be a hard-charging closer in the lane who could well prove impossible to hold off. On the other hand, the bloom could be off the rose and LC could take a lot of catching.

This is an old-timey Sim name at the controls of this next horse, another 3yo. It’s Vegas Jef, operator of the exclusive 13-stable Jef’s Thoroughbred Club, who has the Haskell winner, KITTEN NO MORE. Four races back, this light gray son of Kitten’s Joy hit the big time with a mid-pack move in the Grade I Eddie Haskell. With the victory, Kitten No More had made the improbable jump from conditioned allowances to Grade I. In his very first race against the best the Sim had to offer, this gray colt powered home with a resounding race-winning effort. Important to note is that the Haskell was at today’s distance, nine furlongs. Like Lucky’s Mash, Kitten No More does not appear to want anything to do with a race longer than nine furlongs. He came off that swell score in the Haskell with two stupefying results in the Travelers and Windy City Gold Cup. We can only guess that the horse was beyond its distance capability. On the return to nine furlongs last out, Kitten No More came out of his funk a little bit, but a third in a non-graded race is nothing like a Grade I score. Now, Kitten No More must face the jump to competition against his elders while his form is in recovery mode. He might be sitting on a big race off that show effort, but he enters the ring with the heaviest head he’s ever been near, that of champion Demeco. Let the record show, that didn’t go so well before. Kitten No More faced Demeco in the Travelers and got a close look only in the post parade. Chances are, this horse is not in Demeco’s league.

Winner of the Grade 2 Insulan Cap ALYCZAR will run here for Galileo, a longtime and very successful Sim trainer. Unlike some of the nice 3yos in here, the 5yo Alyczar was a late developer. It was not until this horse was four that he grew into stakes capability, but ever since then, he’s ready to knock heads with the big boys. At this point, Alyczar has raced 17 times in stake races, winning four. In Grade I races, Alyczar does have a show finish on which to hang his hat from three tries. Against the Grade 2 types he’ll encounter on Saturday, he’s got that Insulin Cap victory. So, the horse rates a check mark for having won this class and distance. Handicappers may want to look twice before pitching this horse off his last race, which many may want to do, because it looks bad. Alyczar appears to be off form, what coming in off that ugly eighth-place finish in a measly non-graded race, beaten 13 lengths. But, a closer look reveals that horse has established a clear dislike for the distance of a mile and a sixteenth. Something must be tipping him off. He sees that starting gate just half a furlong closer to the first turn, and becomes apoplectic. It’s strange to see a good horse like this balk completely over a lousy half a furlong, but Sim horses are distance-specific and this horse is completely so. We are willing to draw a line through that last one. Having done so, Alyczar becomes much more attractive, having won three back and been a good third two back in the Grade I Woodward this distance. This horse is playing his game here Saturday and has every right to hit the board even off that previous start.

Fellow BTB staffer CVBear has a hot horse in here with GIDEON’S TRUMPET, a sparkling 3yo chestnut son of Awesome Again who will carry a two-race win streak into Saturday’s action. This horse has been stakes quality right from the get-go as a 2yo, racing almost exclusively in stakes races for almost his entire career. In his 14 starts, there are only two exceptions. His maiden debut, of course, which he won in exemplary fashion, and an allowance race two back which served as a confidence booster and propelled him to a Grade 3 score last out in the Hudson Hawk. The colt earned a lifetime-best speed fig of 115 in that race, which earned him surprisingly little respect from the morning line oddsmaker. Normally, horses who come into a race with back-to-back figures of 115 and 112 do not go off as high as 13-1. While those two scores may inspire confidence in Gideon’s Trumpet backers, let us look a little farther back for even more reason to believe. Let’s look at that second-place finish six races ago in the Chief Snow Handicap, in which this colt proved his chops at this distance and class. That race was a Grade 2 at nine furlongs, same as today.True, the Chief Snow was against 3yos only, and this will be his first start against his elders. However, it’s worth pointing out that there are an awful lot of 3yos in this race, and only a few older horses. It isn’t like he’s the only sophomore in this class. There are plenty of them. Perhaps the most important thing to notice about that nine-furlong race is how Gideon’s Trumpet ran it. He laid very close to the pace and held well to be second. If he can repeat that same kind of trip in here, it’s going to help him because so many of them like to come from way out of it. This horse could find himself in a favorable pace scenario.

Another horse from the Insulan Cap is next, that being 88stud’s A PRAYER. This is a nice brown 4yo son of Crafty Prospector remains eligible for N3L lifetime as he’s only won two races lifetime from 22 starts. But, reasons 88stud, why bother? This horse capable of being second in a graded race, which he was to Alyczar in the Insulin, so why waste a start taking down a condition when the horse is capable of earning big bucks? Sure, he’s only won two, but he’s earned almost $400,000. That’s a lot of cash per win. In A Prayer, we have another horse that comes in off a seemingly disastrous race, having been trounced while ninth last out in the 10-furlong Jockey Guild Gold Cup. But, like with Alyczar, it seems the distance is the problem. A Prayer has double-clunked the mile and a quarter, while closing effectively at Saturday’s nine-furlong distance. It would not be unreasonable to think that this horse can come running Saturday. He’s fired at the class and distance, and can earn a piece with his top effort.

LSUMark flies the Ireland banner here with WITCH TRIALS, a late-running 4yo brown son of Elusive Quality. At a point ending in August this year, Witch Trials had won three of four stake races, two of which were Saturday’s distance. A win in early August was the end of that form cycle, however, as Witch Trials has gone off a bit since then, precipitated by a dwelling 12th-place run in the Grade 2 Upstate Buckeye Stakes. He recovered a bit last out when third off a layoff, and LSUMark shows faith in the horse here, sending him into a Grade 2 field, including the BB champ. Just as he feels like eating again, Witch Trials gets a full plate. LSUMark has been around a while, has 25 good barns and a lot of good horses, and his judgment is that Witch Trials is sitting on a big race. He’s stepping forward in terms of lengths beaten and speed figures, running closer and better last out. To be honest, it’s a little bit of spotty form to be jumping up in class, but we have to place our confidence in the trainer here.

NAGASAKI hasn’t won a race in a year for the Casino Stables. This 4yo chestnut son of Giant’s Causeway won the Grade 3 Little Tree stakes as a 2yo, followed that up with back-to-back Grade 2 wins as a 3yo, but has been surprisingly bereft of good results since. A deep-closing type, this one just isn’t firing very often. He’s off the board in seven of his last 13 races, including another dud last out when 11th of 14 in the Middle Gournd Mile, a Grade 2. But like a lot of his flops, that race was at a flat mile. Nagasaki is a deep closer who just hasn’t been firing in those shorter races. He’s late even at Saturday’s distance of nine furlongs, so let’s take an angle on this horse and draw a line through all his eight-furlong races. What we see now is a decent third four back in the Mohammed Ali, which was a Grade 3 this distance, and even better yet, over this track. So, backers of this colt are going to be hanging their hat on that race four back, and hope it is the one that shows up here today. It takes creative handicapping to convince yourself that a horse that has not won a race this year is going to give trouble to a BB champ on a tear.

The greatest of all time qualifies 12th here. It’s ALI, representing Twoofus Stables. This handsome light gray 6yo son of Sadler’s Wells will serve as the elder statesman of the race, returning to his favored distance of nine furlongs after a failed foray to a mile and a quarter last out. We’ll have to blame the extra furlong for that ugly snafu last out in the restricted DelPenn Classic. After posting an impressive second-place finish two back in the Grade 2 Bluegrass Cup, Ali wasn’t lifting a leg in the softer restricted company last out, all with the extra furlong to blame. That’s two uncharacteristically poor starts at a mile and a quarter now for this classy horse and we just have to assume he does not like 10 furlongs. Drawing a line through that race, we have a horse who has been performing consistently at this class and distance. One result bothers, however. It’s that Insulin Cap three back, in which Ali was eighth, beaten only four lengths, but beaten by two of his rivals in here: Alyczar and A Prayer. Those two were first and second that day in New York, and Ali was only eighth. Ali should have liked the track in New York, considering how he began his career there with two straight wins. He also should like this Kentucky track, considering that the Bluegrass Cup was here. Mixed signals on this horse, who has been patiently managed by Twoofus with only 26 starts at age 6. He should have something left in the tank, and if he fires his shot here Saturday could have something to say about it.

JOURNEY’S END makes his third start back here for Theo, and it says here, this horse could be sitting on a big race. As many of you know, Theo and his brother had bad flood trouble this year and as such, Theo is just now getting back to playing the Sim. All of his horses are recovering from layoffs, some better than others (Theo has a lot of horses, so I can take that haphazard guess.) Journey’s End is one who is taking right to his return. As expected, he was sluggish in his return race two back, then fired in his most recent, a hard-charging second in a non-graded stake that saw him earn an increased speed figure. All signs say go for the third race back, and Theo hopes to capitalize by placing ambitiously here in the Grade 2. The horse does have graded stakes chops, having won a Grade 3 this distance four back, in the Saints Handicap in early March. Before that, Journey’s End had proven himself capable in non-graded stakes, but had struggled twice in graded company. So, we have a horse who’s proven he can win a Grade 3 this distance who appears to be sitting on a big race. It’s a tall task to take on Demeco, but this appears ready for a challenge.

Finally, we have have A VOW TO BE A SLEW for the massive Willyam13 Stables, operating a whopping 53 stables under the GR Simster banner. This is a very interesting entry, as the way for this horse was paved when Willyam scratched another horse, UCANTBREAKMYSPIRIT. Maybe that one was not sharp, as he is not entered to run anywhere else and will take this week off. Ucantbreakmyspirit was going to be the speed in this race, and Willyam must think a lot of A Vow To Be A Slew to scratch Ucantbreakmyspirit from a spot in which he was sure to be the lone speed. Now, that horse is fast and probably is going to be the speed in any race he enters, but he had a really favorable pace scenario here as the clear lone speed. On the opposite end of the spectrum, A Vow To Be A Slew is a deep closer, a running style which has a ton of company in here. On his own merit, the horse does come in here off an impressive score in a Grade 3 at this distance. He got up last out in the Trying to Take the Next Step out in Arizona, in which he snapped an unsightly seven-race losing streak which had seen him manage only a solitary third-place finish for the entirety of his 4yo campaign. He really saved his 4yo year with that race last out, and maybe the horse has awakened and is ready to run another big race. It must have been really important to Willyam to run this horse here, as he scratched a horse with a far more likely pace scenario so he could get in. It’s obvious he wants this horse to run in this spot, and must be expecting a big race.

GOOD LUCK EVERYBODY!!!!!