Foes Face off in Kaif Mile Bargain Bred

The Bargain Breds have invaded North California and my focus for this special day is the Kaif Mile, which will be contested on the turf.  A field of 10 are entered in this restricted race for horses age 3 and up. 

I’m going to take a different approach to my review of the field running in this race.  The reason for my change of pace is that many of the horses have competed against each other over the past few weeks, and by doing a head-to-head comparison, I will try to project the winners.

First, the field for the race and their history on the turf:

1.  Recon Shop               10-1     14-2-2-1

2.  Pricey Magpie             3-1     32-8-8-6

3.  Houndville                   7-1     22-6-4-5

4.  Far Beyond The Sun    7-2     36-7-7-2

5.  Germania Alez           31-1       9-2-1-0

6.  Amber Net                   5-1       3-0-2-0

7.  Champaigne               55-1      8-1-1-1

8.  Dakota                         9-1     19-8-1-1

9.  Shoaib Ahktar              7-2     29-10-7-5

10.  Ermington Gum       22-1     26-4-4-5

As stated early, several of these have already faced off against each other in two prior races, both being restricted stakes.  The most recent of those races was the Kamikaze mile run in mid October.  The other race was the Hunt Turf Cup, which was run back in May at 9 furlongs.

In this race, Dakota found the wire first, winning the event in a speed of 93 by ¼  length.  Dakota generally starts off slow from the gate and can fire it up late and close hard.  He doesn’t always get his late kick going, but in the Kamikaze, he succeeded.  I have doubts that he’ll be able to repeat as his late kick is not consistent.

Shoaib Ahktar finished second (93 speed)  in the Kamikaze as the 5-2 second choice.  Shoaib ran second the entire race and briefly took the lead late in the race.  Shoaib has been stuck in second gear lately, taking the place spot in three consecutive races.  Shoaib also ran in the Hunt Turf Cup, and managed to also take second (98 speed) in that race.  Shoaib has been very consistent, taking home purse checks with great frequency this year and will be a factor.

Houndville took the third spot in the Kamikaze, missing by 1 ½ lengths, and taking the show spot by a nose in a speed of 91.  Houndville made up a couple of lengths after the second call, but wasn’t too far back to begin with.  As a competitor in the Hunt Turf Cup, Houndville finished fifth in a speed of 88.  The fifth spot was good enough to take home a check, however, Houndville ran about 10-lengths back most of the race and passed tiring horses late.  Houndville will have to be at his very best to make it to the winners circle here.

Recon Shop was just nosed out in the Kamikaze for the show spot, posting a speed of 91.  Recon usually lays back from the front runners and shows enough stamina to glide by tiring horses.  Recon Shop has been showing decent outings of late on the turf, mainly against allowance.  This colt will need to step up a notch to steel this race.

Far Beyond the Sun was the 2-1 favorite in the Kamikaze and was taken to the lead early on.  He was pressed by Shoaib Ahktar for the lead and eventually gave in to the pressure, giving up his edge by the third call.  Far Beyond the Sun finished 6^th in the race, three strides back, posting a speed of 89.  In the Hunt Turf Cup, this horse faired much better, taking the victory in a speed of 101, winning by just over 2 lengths.  Far Beyond the Sun will probably make a bid for the lead again.  If he’s challenged early on for the lead, his chances to win are greatly diminished.

Amber Net ran in the Hunt Turf Cup and wrapped up the forth spot in a speed of 93.  In the race, Amber Net ran about 6 lengths back for virtually the whole race.  He made no special move to get the forth spot other than to strut by fading horses late in the race.  Amber has a limited number of races on the turf, but recently finished second in the 7f Everglades Stakes (bargain restricted race) and posted a speed of 88.  Amber can post speeds over 90, and is capable of striking 100.  However, I’d like to see another race or two on the turf to make me a believer.

Champaigne was also a runner in the Hunt Turf Cup, but faltered badly.  Champaigne finished 7^th, some 14 lengths back after running a competitive 3^rd early on.  Champaigne also appeared in another Bargain Bred race, the Vimes Turf Distaff, which ended in similar results.  It’s hard to see this 55-1 shot achieving the big upset.

Pricey Magpie makes his first appearance in the Bargain Bred series and comes in as the favorite at 3-1.  Pricey will be competitive in this field and has been running 8 to 8.5 furlong races with speeds in the upper 90’s and low 100’s.  He has been racing in the allowance level for what seems to be an eternity.  He is very, no, make that extremely slow at leaving the gate.  He’ll be the hound chasing the foxes in this race and can run down the field.  He looks well placed in this field.

Germania Alez was recently claimed for a $20,000. and is making his debut in the Bargain Bred series.  Germainia put in a career best speed of 92 against allowance company last time out, finishing forth and running 8.5 furlongs.  His best races have been run at distance at about a mile in length.  However, numerous others in this field are able to strike 90+ speeds with regular frequency and he seems out classed in this field.

Ermington Gum also makes his first entry into the Bargain Bred series.  Ermington has recorded a few speeds in the low 90’s, however, has faced his struggles of late.  Since being claimed for a bargain $2,000, Ermington has been facing higher priced claimers and running in some starter races.  Of his last eight races, he has three shows for his efforts.  He also seems out classed in this group.

It’s pick ‘em time and I’m leaning towards Shoaib Ahktar.  Shoaib has been running very competitively in the Bargain Bred series of races for quite some time and has recent 2nds in the Kamikaze, Bargain Princess (a race he won last year) and the  Hunt Club Cup.  He’s overdue.

Pricey Magpie comes in with very consistent speed numbers and draws jockey J. White (24% win).  Pricey should be included in any exotic wagers.

A tough choice for third…I am going with Houndville.  The “Houndster” is consistent on the turf, coming in 15 of 22 starts.  He also recorded a victory in the Silenus Mile (beating Far Beyond The Sun and Shoaib Ahtar). 

Just for the record, Dakota was my other choice for third, so he’ll receive my Saver Selection.  He has the ability to make a strong late charge, but that isn’t always dependable.  If there is one who can upset the field, it will be Dakota.