Coxless Down Under: $3 Mill – Ermington Pegasus Could Be Bumped

Coxless Stakes

Grade I

A mile and one quarter

Firm Turf

$3,000,000

All horses, 3 years old and up

The sim’s version of the Cox Plate brings a diverse bunch to the far south.  We have some of the winningest horses in the world (CREEPSHOW(IRE), RAPID GREY), some trying to recapture their best (STORM’S GONE AGAIN, OTTOMAN TURKS), a dual derby winner (PORTMAN’S PERFECT(KY)), a crack mare (TARA(IRE)), one with a dirt-to-turf angle (LAME DUCK(GB)), and, well, what can you say about thousands-to-one shot GEORGE W. LOSER?  Let’s look in more detail:

PP  Horse ID  Horse  Owner  Jockey  Odds  W / P / S

1 58738 RAPID GREY  champions4  F Moon  5/1   

The number 5 long turf horse is 20 for 40 lifetime.  With a win, if my math is not mistaken, he would move past ERMINGTON PEGASUS as the number 2 active moneyearner with nearly $11 million.  He was second in this race last year to rival CREEPSHOW(IRE).  In 8 starts this year, the 6-year-old has been productive but not dominating, with a win in the Grade 1 King Geoff but otherwise generally filling out the trifecta.  He still has a powerful late turn of foot and a consistent array of top speed numbers.  Beatable as a co-fave but still dangerous.

2 118844 STORM’S GONE AGAIN  tisgold  R Bailey  9/1    

Regally-bred 5-year old (AWESOME AGAIN x STORM CAT x GONE WEST) comes in off a speedy second in an open stakes in Idaho.  That might mark a return to his form of several months ago after a few down races this summer.  He is a grade 1 winner at the distance, and one likely to make up 10 lengths in the stretch if he’s on his late-running game.  He will be truly tested by this bunch to determine whether he is back in form, but a solid jock in Bailey should help.

3 2463 WELLS GHOST TED(WV)  cashstable  S Barton  6/1     

Gutsy move by the breeder/trainer to send a Sadler’s Wells mare to the little-used West Virginia sire Ghostly Minister, and it has paid off handsomely.  He is actually not a stakeswinner, but he’s been posting speeds from 103 to 111 in stakes all year.  Sometime, he’s got to break through.  A late surge by CARBON EXTRACTOR(KY) got him last time in the Grade 2 Walnut BB, and sometimes he may be a little too close to the pace to sustain a stretch bid.  Additionally, he’s been more successful at a mile or so, which means he will have to prove that the extra furlongs are within his scope.  Many questions.

4 19225 JOYOFWILD(KY)  turfsurf  G Adler  14/1    

A 4-year-old Forest Wildcat out of a stakeswinning mare, he was looking pretty hot this summer with a second in the NY Island Cap, but hasn’t really capitalized since then.  He’s a pro at this distance and should keep the pace honest, but a scenario for a victory is hard to construct.  His last-out 104 when losing a stakes by a neck is reason to hope.

5 61893 CREEPSHOW(IRE)  lenny28  D Evans  5/1    

The other favorite is the number 3 classic turf horse and the number 5 active earner, with more than $7 million.  The Evil Empire has guided this Rock of Gibraltar to a 16 for 34 mark, and he has two Grade 1 victories this season at the distance.  He ran well on these grounds last month in the Coffeefields Cup, but finished merely fifth, behind place horse and returning rival PORTMAN’S PERFECT(KY).  There is no question that his best can be a winning effort, and a speed 105 or over is virtually assured.  It just might not be enough.

6 78204 LAME DUCK(GB)  cylla2222  P Spratt  13/1    

Gotta be the best ever out of retired sire Almutawakel.  He’s busted out two wins recently in his first ever dirt tries, including a 107 speed last out in a 12-furlong stakes.  His second in the Bluegrass Cup Turf is another indication of renewed life in the 13-time winner.  He’s not likely to let them get too far ahead of him, and he’s an interesting shot if those recent races are the true bill.  Might want a few furlongs more.

7 129064 SEEKING NESSY(KY)  rlogan  B Ridgle  8/1    

Hennessy scratchbred has had three 110-plus runs this season, and that says he can get it done here if it’s his day.  He’s another that will be midpack early, probably not a bad place in this field.  He’s been throwing a couple of moderate stinkers between every top effort, which might mean he’s ready for the up part of his form cycle, since the last two were below par.  Last out was an 11th place in the Grade 2 Posh Purse in Florida.  While it wasn’t a disaster, it was nothing that indicated he is ready to tackle this grade 1 assemblage.  Ridgle isn’t really an asset, and NESSY will have to show that he is on the upswing against the old warhorses in here.

8 11283 TARA(IRE)  bredtosell  S Nightingale  13/1    

She’s the number 4 classic turf mare, and it’s always nice to see good kids by Generous.  She took a long break after capping her sophomore season with a Grade 1 win (at 10 furlongs no less), and she’s actually been facing the boys with regularity this season.  But she has not been a bang-up gal at 4, with a second and a third from a light schedule.  There is talent here, but she’s mostly been spinning her wheels in the stretch since March, so it would be a surprise to see her in the exacta.

9 145167 T.M. RATTO(JPN)  drdm  K Ryan  24/1    

T.M. Opera O gets some stakes horses, and here’s probably his newest: he busted through in the KANGAROO MINSTREL(IRE) Bonanza on this track in September.  That one looks like an anomaly, since he followed it up with a third in another open stakes, falling back to a 97 speed.  The stakes win was at 11 furlongs, but he seems to often do his best running in the 13th or 14th furlongs, so that could put him at a disadvantage today.  Not on my trifecta ticket.

10 123799 OTTOMAN TURKS  stoners  T Myslinski  14/1    

Naturally, an Empire Maker product.  Stoners’ entry is your 2007 Breeders Bowl Turf runner up, and before that won 6 straight culminating in two Grade 1s.  2008 has been a struggle for the 5-year-old, however, as whenever he seems back on track in a lesser race, he gets spanked in a graded contest.  His latest disappointment was a 5th in the Classic Turf Stakes, the Grade 1 affair in New York.  You could blame that on the yielding turf, except he’s always been dynamite on the squishy stuff.  When he’s on, he’s likely to gun it to the front, yielding to virtually no one – in his Breeders Bowl run, he was second only to frontrunning LEX LUTHOR.  Overall, though, I can’t really see him getting it done today.

11 49879 GEORGE W. LOSER  monimonica  B Johnson  99/1    

Funny, whenever I enter a modest horse in a stakes, I get rejected.  Now here’s this loser, and he’s run in 26 stakes, managing to beat any other horse just three times (second to last, I mean).  Oh well, I like sire Polish Precedent anyhow.  The entries page says 99 to 1, but look at the odds on his past performances – you are more likely to get 12000 to 1 if you wager on him and he wins!

12 63067 TOY(KY)  dreaming  N Hartel  6/1    

TOY(KY) is another Empire Maker, this one out of solid Danzig mare MINTIANO.  He’s been very solid in this second half of his 4-year-old year, racking up two allowances, a stakes (last month), and six triple digit speeds in a row.  His 112 in that stakes win is actually the fastest last speed number, and he loves this distance, so let’s not count him out just because he’s not a graded winner.  He does have something to prove, and will need to run past some good ones in the stretch.

13 26819 PORTMAN’S PERFECT(KY)  nijinsky4  J Kohlmorgen  8/1    

Indeed she is, and this guy is the first foal from long dirt maven N. PORTMAN.  He’s a dual derby winner this year (Sydney, English) and knows this course well.  He won the Coalminer Cup here at the beginning of October, and came back two weeks later to be second in the Coffeefields.  He might like those mile and a half affairs better, and he could also be tired after his big 3-year-old year and two very recent grueling races.  Jockey Kohlmorgen usually doesn’t hurt you.  He’s an overlay at those odds unless he’s tired.

14 151400 NEW NORSICA(KY)  hydrogen  Bi Clark  19/1    

The sophomores are stuck on the outside again (I’ve seen that before), and this young Dynaformer is just getting rolling.  He brings a light 9-race resumé, but his last was a Grade 2 triumph on this continent at this distance.  Generally he tracks the leaders, and he’s usually a bear in the stretch.  It’s just hard to tell if he belongs in this company or he might regress against a fierce field of 14.