Breeders Bowl Mare Sprint
A new tradition is born as fillies and mares get their own Breeders Bowl sprint. The distaff sprint will cover seven furlongs for a $1,000,000 purse.
With no race history to go on, it’s tough to say how this will play out, but there will be no question who is best after this race. The top four rated three-year-olds join eight of the top ten rated older sprinters.
By late October, three-year-olds are expected to be able to run with their older sisters, but the oddsmakers don’t agree. None of the six three-year-olds have morning lines under 10-1.
Most of the field prefers to rally from just off the pace, and we can expect to see the youngsters set that pace.
With six of the runners assigned odds between 5-1 and 9-1, this looks like a tough race for anyone hoping to cash a pick 6 – it could be anybody’s race.
Here is a look at the field:
PP 1 SONG OF THE HAWK(KY) (UNBRIDLED’S SONG x MACHIAVELLIAN x ALYDAR), 4yo, bred and trained by sheikabner (Sheikabner Stables, 20%) style S, odds: 7-1
The horse: She hasn’t won since January, but she looks like she is rounding back into form. She can’t be happy to see the 5 horse in here – Hawk has been second to that mare in her past two races. She was making nasty moves late in those two races, and she’ll be flying late again here. With her improving form it would be no surprise to see her turn the tables on that one today with all the marbles on the line.
She’s won the Grade I World Cup Ladies Long Sprint as a three-year-old, the Grade II Kentucky Lassie Stakes, the Grade III The That’s My Baby Stakes, and the Grade III Kentucky Milady Stakes. She also has three other graded stakes finishes in the money. Just a piece of the purse will put her over the $1 million mark in earnings.
Most impressively, at seven furlongs on fast dirt, she has seven wins in nine starts.
The trainer: Sheikabner, better known elsewhere as Kingab, is having an outstanding year, winning at a 29% clip and capturing six wins in 21 stakes races. Sheikabner supports the CR Racers.
In an interview, he felt that Song of the Hawk has been training beautifully and noted that she’d be coming in off a three race win streak if not for 2 ¾ lengths in the past three races. Most impressively, he describes the “gorgeous grey lady” as one of his favorite mares of all time. That’s saying a lot
PP 2 MISCALCULATION(KY) (UNBRIDLED’S SONG x A.P. INDY x STORM CAT), 3yo, bred and trained by fanatical (Circusham Stables, 27%) style P, odds: 11-1
The horse: With her eight wins and two seconds in only eleven starts, this filly has roughly twice as many stakes points as any other runner in the field. This scratch bred has rarely been tested, and her many fans are drooling over the double-digit odds. She was second last time around two turns against the best three-year-old routers, but at this distance, few three-year-olds have been able to challenge her. She did finish behind Vheissu back in June, and she disappointed as the favorite in the Smackdown. Otherwise, it’s hard to find a flaw. How will she do against older? She won her lone race that was open to older fillies and mares, but it was a weak owner-restricted race, so she has yet to answer that question.
Fittingly, this filly with the mathematical name won both the Grade I Correlation Coefficient and the Grade I Cosine Cup. She also won the Grade I Circusham Derby and the Grade II Yanta Snez. She has two other ITM finishes in graded stakes. At seven furlongs, she has two wins in three starts.
The Trainer: Fanatical has won an astonishing 37% of his races in 2008. All of his graded races have been with Miscalculation, and she is four out of six. He has also won one overnight stakes in five tries with other horses. Fanatical is a member of GR Simsters.
PP 3 STIRLING FORM (A.P. INDY x DYNAFORMER x STORM BIRD), 5 yo, bred by tmica, trained by jrogue2 (Jrogue Stables, 20%), style: P, odds: 8-1
The horse: She hasn’t embarrassed herself – she’s been running triple digit speed figures and finishing in the front half of some very tough fields, but she hasn’t been able to close the deal in a while. Her form’s been less than sterling as she hasn’t won a race in over nine months and hasn’t been in the money since March. She likes to rally from off the pace, and those sorts can, from time to time, throw in an unexpectedly strong effort. That appears to be her best hope.
She’s run two graded stakes twice: The Unthinkable and the Dancer Cap. Unfortunately her more recent runs in both races have been worse than her earlier.
Her dam was a router in her brief career and A.P. Indy is overwhelmingly a routing sire, and this shrewd trainer has tried a distance with her, but she showed she did not like it.
She has won the Grade II Unthinkable and the Grade II Dandelion, and she has three more graded finishes in the money.
The trainer: Jrogue2 is winning 15% of his races this year, and is one of 13 in graded stakes and three out of 29 overall in stakes races this year. With over 18,000 races and a consistently high winning percentage, Jrogue Stables is always a force to be reckoned with.
PP 4 LA VINOTINTO (MINESHAFT x KINGMAMBO x STORM CAT), 5 yo, bred and trained by venezolano (Otto Haack (
The horse: This mare, named in honor of the Venezuelan national football team, is one of the few in here that is coming in off a win. The fact that that was a track-restricted allowance win tarnishes the victory, but she has some other reasons to favor her. She is the only early speed horse among the older runners. The race has a surprising lack of early speed, so her style may work in her behalf. In three of her last five races she has run speed figures below 100, and today’s race will certainly take a figure in excess of 110, so can we excuse them? Well, last race she may have run only as fast as she needed to to dispatch weak competition. In the other two slow races she was unable to get near the lead early. This mare needs to be near, if not on, the lead. Against this field, especially as all the other early speed is well outside of her, she should certainly be able to be at the front.
Dam was a turf specialist, and La Vinotinto has shown she likes the grass, but, then, she also likes dirt sprints. At this distance, she has four wins and nine ITM finishes in ten starts.
She is a recent winner of the Grade II Delta Tau Chi Sprint and has two other seconds in Grade II stakes.
The Trainer: Venezolano is winning 25% of his races this year, and has three wins in 14 stakes races. The stable is a member of Hispano Parlante.
PP 5 DOCTOR DANZIG (SPEIGHTSTOWN x
The horse: “What a year,” notes her trainer. “She began the year eligible for N4L, and comes into the Breeders bowl off a two race winning streak over Song of the Hawk. To have any horse beat that one is reason to celebrate, but to do it twice in a row with the same horse?” Ace is a bit apprehensive about doing it three times in a row, but there’s no real reason to think it won’t happen.
The recent success has vaulted the Doctor into the number two slot among older sprinters. And the success has been recent. The five-year-old had not even tried a stakes race until April. Now she has three wins in her last four starts, including wins in the Grade I Dancer Cap and the Grade III The Girls Just Right. That’s just astonishing for a horse that started her career with three less than awe-inspiring wins in her first 15 races. Maybe there’s hope for some of my nags.
The trainer: Ace, no stranger to huge wins, is going great with her manon stable this year. The barn is winning 25% of its races and has won six stakes in just 14 starts.
PP 6 CLARK COUNTY(KY) (SEEKING THE GOLD x NIJINSKY II x HAIL TO REASON), 4yo, bred by lopiccolo, trained by simsters3 (The Evil Empire, 17%) style: P, odds: 9-1
The horse: Lenny has two running in this race, and he gives the better chance to this one over Fifth Street.
The trainer: With the simsters3 stable, Lenny has won over 27% of his races and banked $1.2 million this year. It’s never a surprise to see him in the winner’s circle.
PP 7 BLACK GOLD COAL (SUMMER SQUALL x ROBERTO x GRAUSTARK), 6yo, bred by mouskers, trained by jrogue3 (Jrogue Stables, 19%), style: P, odds: 7-1
The horse: This one gave her trainer options. The six-year-old is ranked 10th in both the sprint and the classic divisions. She apparently doesn’t want anything to do with longer than 8.5 furlongs, so this was the prudent choice, though she hasn’t won a sprint since February, and she threw a real clunker in the Dance Cap, her last try at seven furlongs.
She was late to the races, not making her first start until December of her four-year-old season, but she’s been well worth the wait for her patient connections. Her three wins and six in-the-money finishes in her ten graded stakes make her always dangerous. This race might be a furlong and a half short for her, but it would not be a shock if she won anyway.
The trainer: The jrogue3 stable has been very strong in 2008. They have eight stakes wins in 24 tries, and overall they’ve won $1 million and 19% of their races.
PP 8 MRS. STARK REALITY (MR. GREELEY x GRAUSTARK x IN REALITY), 6yo, bred and trained by stablebums (Smubs Stables, 17%), style: S, odds: 5-1*
The horse: How do you get to be the number one rated sprinting mare? One race that helped was her race two starts ago when she was second by a head to the boys in the Grade II Booker T. Surprisingly, you can be the number one rated mare with but one graded win. In Mrs. S’s case that win was the Grade II Unthinkable back in April. She figures to be joining Song of the Hawk at the back of the field, and look for them to try their moves together. The pace does not look blistering. We’ll see if that hurts these two late chargers.
The trainer: What a shrewd move they made in acquiring this mare. She was racing in long turf races above her conditions when they claimed her and switched her to dirt sprints where she ran off five straight wins. This year, their record is a 15% winning rate overall and 20% in stakes.
PP 9 SARACEN(KY) (STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR x BUCKPASSER), 3yo, bred by temp1, trained by dixiedotco (Dixiedotco Racing, 26%), style: E, odds: 24-1
The horse: At 24-1, she’s the longest shot in the race, yet she’s been up to all the challenges she’s faced so far. She already has a Grade I, II, and III win, and she’s two for two at the distance. The long odds are due to speed figures that don’t stand up to what the older fillies and mares have been running. But, as Dixiedotco points out, her running style may be her salvation. She does her best running on the lead, and there will be a surprisingly lack of a battle for that early lead. He’s hoping she’ll get brave. He also sees hope in the distance. She’s been running 6 and 6.5 furlongs lately, just because that’s what was available.
The trainer: Year in and year out Dixiedotco maintains some of the most consistently high performance of anyone in the world. This year, the stable is at 29% and eight of 27 in stakes.
PP
The horse: There is exactly one filly in the races who comes in off a Grade I win, and only two that come in off a seven furlong win.
The trainer: It’s Lenny again. Ho hum 25% wins this year.
PP 11 VHEISSU(KY) (SPEIGHTSTOWN x SAINT BALLADO x ROUND TABLE), 3yo, bred and trained by astinator8 (
The horse: What a fantastic start to this filly’s career. It used to be common knowledge that a strong two-year-old campaign would lead to a disappointing three-year-old season. This filly just gets better and better. She threw in one terrible race in an Equinics route, but otherwise she’s never been out of the money. She’s the three-year-old that likes to come from well off the pace. It remains to be seen how she’ll do against the older fillies and mares, but she tried a decent overnight field last time open to older and she finished second. Five wins and a third in six starts at seven furlongs? Clearly a mistake to dismiss this one’s chances.
The trainer: Atinator8 has won five of his ten stakes races and over 30% of all his races this year. This is just depressing. How come I struggle to win 10% and to even get a stakes starter? Please don’t tell me.
PP 12 PULPRATS(KY) (PULPIT x DANEHILL x SAINT BALLADO), 3yo, bred and trained by darny (Darnath Stables, 12%), style: E, odds: 16-1
The horse: The last race was a huge one. She took advantage of a field with a lack of early pressure to beat older, including Black Gold Coal, in the Grade III Pocahontas at 17-1. Even though she’s 16-1, she may be a big key to the race. She is the type that absolutely needs the lead to win – when she’s challenged she gives up. As there are few other early speed horses here, she will definitely be gunning for that lead. Because there are some early speed horses, Pulprats is just the sort to take them down with her if they battle it out. So here are the possibilities: 1. She gets an uncontested lead and scores a huge upset over older: just like last time. 2. She is hindered from the early lead due to the outside post or some other factor, and she fades to also-ran status early. 3. She gets engaged in a speed battle that destroys her chances and takes Saracen and La Vinotinto with her. Hmmm.
The trainer: The Minnesota Residency member darny is 14% overall and two out of four in graded stakes.
PP 13 MINISTER OF HUMOR(KY) (DISTORTED HUMOR x DEPUTY MINISTER x SECRETARIAT), 3yo, bred and trained by bandinni (Right At Home Stables, 13%), style: P/E, odds: 11-1
The horse: Classy filly is unfortunate to have so much of the other early speed so near her, but she’s shown more that once that she can fight off an early challenge, and she may have the best chance of all the three-year-olds. Hard to find a chink in her armor other than age. She has nine wins in her 12 races between six and eight furlongs, and seven furlongs look like her best distance. This is her first try against older, so we’ll hold that against her, but we would not be shocked to see her make a gritty stand against the late charging mares.
The trainer: Bandinni is a 22% trainer in 2008, capturing four of his 14 graded stakes tries. He’s proven he can train against anyone.
PP 14 STAYS IN VEGAS(KY) (
The horse: She just missed in a couple key races. Last time she showed she could run with older when she was within a couple lengths at the end of the Grade III Heyman Sprint. Two races before that she showed she can handle Grade I when she was a close second in an Equinics sprint. She does best on the lead, and that’s unlikely, and her figures are a bit light. Finally, her only race longer than 6.5 furlongs was her only bad race. All that’s fine, but it’s tough not to give this trainer’s runners every chance when they step out on the track.
Overall, she’s been in the money in three of her four graded stakes, but has yet to win one.
The trainer: Texasace has won his ridiculous normal 30% this year with this stable, but it’s 0 for 10 in graded stakes.
Conclusion. Only a fool would try to predict the outcome of this race. Oh, did I hear my name called? Song of the Hawk / Doctor Danzig /