Test of the Two Year Old Dirt Filly

Welcome to the 2008 edition of the dirt Juvenile Filly (G1). Two year old races are fascinating because anything can happen, talent emerges and fizzles at random times, and in two year olds its hit or miss. In older horses you have had time to see how competitive they really are, but two year olds are raced lightly (usually) so its not uncommon to see an unproven horse win it, but sometimes that is also their peak. I’m not saying skip this race is you want to have a three year old, I’m just warning you today could be the beginning, middle or the end. Want some proof? In nine previous editions of this race three of the fillies never won a graded race after they won this one, Ten Year Storm, last year’s winner is still running so she has a shot to turn that back to two horses. As for the rest of them, several repeat grade one winners, but NOBODY has run well in the Oaks, sorry there is a Juvenile Filly winner Oaks curse. But if you’re reading this its too late to turn back now, you wanted the Breeders Bowl win, and who knows maybe you can break that curse with your filly. The race on average is won with a 93 or 94, the fastest was with a 98 in 2000 by Minsky. Next do you want to lay off the pace, be up close, or try to wire the field? Four horses have won it coming off the pace, three of them were up close to the pace, and took the race over before the final call. The only filly to ever win it by wiring the field was Du Drop Bai. Enough history lets get to this year’s race. A full field of 14 has been entered and the weatherman is calling for sunshine and decent temperatures. Odds range from 5/1-23/1, and we all know on Breeders’ Bowl day anything is possible and a $48 winner isn’t uncommon.

Drawing the rail is malekfarm’s Echo Pass, second ranked sprinting filly of the year, ranked 10^th in routes. A striking chestnut daughter of the highly regarded Ghostzapper out of Goliath, a Giant’s Causeway mare, she has won 4 of her 5 starts. This is the first offspring out of the grade F mare. Echo Pass won the G1 Equinics for two year old sprinting fillies. Her only start going a route distance wasn’t a good one, finishing fifth beaten seven lengths. After speaking with the trainer he admitted that her first try at a route wasn’t what he preferred, but she was closing in on the leaders late. “We’ll see. If she fails here, she goes back to sprinting. Eruption bombed in his first try at a route, and then blew up in his second try. She’s fast enough- question is the distance.“ His plan is place her closer to the pace so she doesn’t have as much ground to make up in the end. According to history being just off the pace is a good way to go. At 7/1 she’s got a shot, although I usually prefer a better record going a route.

Coming out of the second gate is deiceman’s Ghosts N Goblins, the 19^th ranked routing two year old filly. Another daughter of Ghostzapper, she is out of Cherokee Top, a grade G Storm Cat mare. This is fifth foal from the mare, and the only stakes winner that she has produced thus far. The small brown filly has three starts with two wins and a place. She comes in the race off of a layoff, with her last run being August 30^th. She will be stepping up to graded competition for the first time. She won her stakes debut at this distance with an 85 by lying just off the pace. The trainer, better known as stylez was sitting on pins and needles all week hoping that she would get in. He knows that she is lightly raced, but has not been tested to her limit yet, and believes the layoff could help her. “A lot of the fillies are coming into the race off of just a three week layoff, and may not even be sharp. My filly has had time to rest and is raring to go.” At 10/1 so far racing luck is on her side, getting her into this race when there were 4 others that could have run and left her on the outside looking in.

Breaking from the three hole is pwong01’s Railways, the 3^rd ranked two year old filly. This lanky brown filly is by a sire I have never heard of before, Rail Link, out of Gators And Bears, a G ranked Giant’s Causeway mare. This is the mare’s third offspring, and she is by far the best she has produced. In eight starts she has won twice, placed three times and shown once. She is a Grade 1 placed horse, but her biggest win was in a NW2L allowance going a mile. She was closing nicely in her last start, which was the grade one three weeks ago. The assistant trainer of the filly said that the connections believe she belongs in this race as she shows more promise with each start at a longer distance. She is versatile, having the ability to run close to the pace or several lengths off of it and still hit the board. Railways debuted in March, and has run once a month since then, I wonder if she may hit a wall soon being run often as a two year old. However that does show that she has been healthy, many two year olds will come back needs rest especially in the beginning of the year, but she obviously did not. At 12/1 as long as she isn’t running on empty she should be a force to be reckoned with.

Drawing the fourth position is korn’s Ultimate Diamond, the 7^th ranked two year old router. She lives up to her name when it comes to her looks and pedigree being the daughter of A.P. Indy out of an undisclosed Storm Cat mare. Ultimate Diamond a muscular brown filly with a diamond shaped marking on her forehead, in three tries has two wins and a third. She broke her maiden in a restricted maiden wiring the field in July. In her next start a sprinting grade two she laid off the lead and won with ease posting a 90. In her route debut she was off the lead by a few lengths, but seem to even out in the final furlong, and the second to last call she as second by a half length, but then faded to third beaten a half a length. I spoke with the groom of the filly, who actually spoke decent English, and he said that the filly loves California, and he is not concerned with the distance of the race. In her route debut she had to fly to Dubai, and just didn’t like that deep sandy course, she’s back at her home track and is ready to roll. At 5/1 the oddsmaker believes she’s the one to beat, and comes into the race with a month and a half layoff. I like her for the fact that she likes California, but she has to beat the other 13 in the field which shouldn’t prove to be an easy task.

The fifth spot in the starting gate belongs to catullus’ Corinna, another lucky girl to get a spot being ranked 22^nd in the filly route division. This fiery red chestnut filly is also a daughter of A.P. Indy, but out of an undisclosed Deputy Minister mare. In five starts she has won four times and placed in the other outing. At first glance, one would think she would be a strong contender in the race, but upon further inspection she has a huge question mark over top of her. Can she route? The furthest that she has run is 6.5 furlongs, she’ll be asked to go an eighth of a mile further on Saturday. To her benefit is she comes from off the lead, so maybe she hasn’t run out of gas in these short races and will have enough to finish up well going a distance. Calls to trainer were answered by an assistant of sorts that said the filly was entered, but there were doubts in the barn that she would get in. After all she hasn’t run in two months, and hadn’t recorded a route race yet to help her ranking to get her in. The trainer didn’t want to risk running her in the past two months, afraid she’d come up hurt running in the middle or risk her having to run on just three weeks rest. At 10/1 she’ll be well rested, but can she go the distance?

Drawing post position six is valdes’ Valdestale, 4^th ranked routing filly. The wild eyed chestnut daughter of Tale Of The Cat out of the grade C mare Valdeslew by Seattle Slew. She is the dam’s second graded winner in seven foals. She has run five times and won four of those outings. The time that she lost she was in the Equinics and still managed a fourth. Last time out she stepped into graded competition and the route at the same time. Coming from the back of the pack she won going away. After her outing to the track this morning I was able to catch up with her trainer, Fernando to see what he thought of his filly. This two time Breeders’ Bowl winner was absolutely beaming as he spoke about her. “After her first race, I knew that she was going to be something special. The only blemish on her past performances came in the Equinics, I realize it was a mistake to run in the race now, but over all she is a very nice filly. Her mother always produces nice babies so its not much of a shock.“ At 9/1 I’d say this one is raring to go, she has had almost five weeks off and has the running style that produces Breeders’ Bowl winners.

Breaking from the middle of the pack, in hole seven is hollandia4’s Quiet N Discreet, the 12^th ranked routing filly. The sleek chestnut filly is by Discreet Cat out of Quiet Hollandia a grade C mare by Polish numbers. Quiet and Discreet is her fourth foal, and best by far. In five starts she has two wins and three places. A grade one winner at 6.5 furlongs, she has an allowance place at a mile that was obviously just to see if she could route, she already had the points needed to be eligible to run in this race. Coming off of a six week layoff this filly is anything but Quiet and Discreet! I caught her jumping all over the track, then taking hold of her exercise rider and doing and unscheduled breeze, going three furlongs in 34 seconds! I couldn’t find the trainer, so I spoke with the rider, who was very glad to see the filly’s groom at the gap, it meant his arms could get a rest. My first question was whether or not she was supposed to go that fast so close to the race, and the rider said “no way that wasn’t the plan. it’s a good thing the trainer isn’t around, I could lose my job over that, especially if she does bad this weekend. Then he smiled, and said she’s ready we know she’s top class, and has already proven to be a grade one filly. Being named two year old filly of the year would be awesome, but thirteen others will work to deny us the glory. At 15/1 she has shown to be a runner that likes to be up close, an ran an even (albeit her best speed figure ever) race at a mile, which makes me wary of whether she can go the distance. At least the connections know she can sprint.

Drawing post eight is bhm’s Fourth Seal Opened, the 15^th ranked two year old routing filly. The chocolate colored brown filly is the daughter of Devil His Due out of No More Lies a grade F mare by Slew O’ Gold. This is the first foal by No More Lies. In seven tries she has two wins, two places and a show. I have a special interest in this filly, as earlier this week I had an odd call from her trainer, bhm, aka cmd. Cmd being from Arkansas has limited ability to a decent airport, and missed the only flight to California, he also muttered something about a golf tournament that he was supposed to be in this weekend. Anyway he knew I was going to be out in California to cover the race and wanted me to take care of her for the week going into the race, and saddle her on the big day. I said certainly, I’ve never had a Breeders’ Bowl horse in my nine years of training, I’d love to feel what its like to have a horse on the big stage! After hearing that he said, what the heck, I’m not sure if she belongs or not so you make all the decisions on her. Find a jock and tell him what to do, then he hung up. I went to task trying to find a suitable jock, knowing that we’d be further down in selection I looked for a good jock, but one that wouldn’t be named on too many that would choose before us, and settled on Caves, a great EK jockey. The filly has been training well while out in California, but I too see that she may not make it as a router, but is a graded winner sprinting. Her usual running style of very close to the lead or on the lead is not suitable to this race, so we will try to rate her some, which could be a catastrophe. At 16/1 we all see her faults, three weeks off, and likes to be the speed, but how do you deny not going to the biggest race of the year when you’re qualified?

Breaking from the ninth position is legacy’s Desideria, the luckiest filly of them all to get in, ranked forty-third in routes. This well muscled brown filly is by Bluegrass Cat out of Mach Nine a G grade Machiavellian mare. This is the fourth foal produced by the mare, and is by far her best yet. In seven starts she has four wins, and two places. Desideria is an interesting filly, she only does well when she’s on the lead, and was running low numbers (yet winning) until her last start where she spiked a 90 going 7.5 furlongs. She is untested at a route, some lead horses can stretch their speed to wire the field, but not many. In her last start she cleared the field by a half dozen lengths to finish just over two and a half to win. The foreman of the stable said that the trainer thinks she deserves to be here. She may not have tried a route yet, but has been impressive in her wins, speed figures aren’t everything. At 17/1 she has had a month off, and will clearly be the speed of the race, but I’m not sure if she’ll be able to fight off the closers.

Breaking from the ten hole is semolina’s Lol Fang Tan, the 21^st ranked routing filly. The nearly white, but grey daughter of Aptitude is out of an undisclosed Halo mare. In five starts she has three wins and place. Her only time off the board, she ran very poorly, only earning a 7 in the G1 Equinics race. A month later she came back to win a mile listed stakes race, so she shouldn’t have been injured. She is grade 2 placed, tiring from the lead to get 2^nd at 6.5 furlongs. She will be breaking with Desideria gunning for the lead. I caught up to an assistant of the trainer who said the post position was not ideal being right next to another speedster. They do feel a speed duel and their filly faltering before the wire. “The G1 was a fluke, she broke bad and never got into the race, she’s had six weeks off from her last race and is fit to run.” At 23/1 she is longest shot on the board, most likely due to her grade one effort. History says speed doesn’t hold up in this race, so I won’t be betting my money on her.

Grouped in with the speed, breaking from post eleven is metallinut’s Repeat Performance, the 23^rd ranked routing filly. The lean chestnut filly is by Awesome Again out of an undisclosed Secretariat mare. In six starts she only has one win and two places. In March she debuted in an allowance, won easily on the lead and has been in stakes since. She is grade 1 placed, fading after leading at 6.5 furlongs. Last time out it looks like she tried rating, but threw in the towel when she didn’t get her way. I spoke with the trainer to see what the plan would be since rating went awry last time. He stands by the rating tactic, believing she is deeper than just a sprinter, and will try it again. “The jockey T.Loesch has been given specific instructions on what to do! Sit off the pace,then make your move at the top of the stretch! Do not let her run to the front early on. She has been training well and we believe she is ready to run on Saturday.” At 10/1 she is coming into the race off of three weeks rest, and is placed next to the speed. Loesch has his work cut out for him riding a horse who wants the lead next to the likely pacesetters.

Drawing post eleven is hillhouse’s Funny And Brave, the 8^th ranked routing filly. The small, yet muscular brown filly is by Distorted Humor out of Home Of The Brave a D grade Broad Brush mare. This is her first foal. In five starts she has won four, all of them in a row. After one run at a sprint, she was taken to a route and hasn’t looked back since. Usually she’ll run from just off the pace and close in to win, her speed figures have continually improved each time out. I spoke with the stable’s spokesman lilbitfarm about the horse when I realized that the trainer’s flight had not yet landed. Lilbitfarm was quick to correct me on the status of Home of The Brave, “ “Funny” is the result of a “sex change” breeding with Distored Humor and hillhouse’s veteran Home of the Brave.” Whoops I need to read the program better! Lilbit went on to say “ We think “Funny” will love the added distance-doesn’t seem to be a problem-she should be closing down the lane. We are very happy that Gosset will be riding her-no one better to have in Cali . This filly is a joy to have in the barn-we are ooking forward to see how she will handle this talented field in the BB-win or lose we know she will try her best.” At 7/1 she is the second choice, that seems to be on the top of her game. She hasn‘t tried graded competition yet, but that can sometimes be overrated in two year olds.

Drawing near the outside in post thirteen is mrbigb‘s Storm Spun, the 14^th ranked router. The spunky brown mare by Hard Spun is out of Storm Queen a grade g Kingmambo mare. Spun is her fourth foal, and is the most talented thus far. In seven tries she has two wins, two places and two shows. In her last start at this distance five weeks ago she closed to be second in a grade two. She likes to stay off the pace, but doesn‘t always seem to fire in each outing. She did break her maiden on the turf, and her other win was an allowance going a mile on the main track. California is a different sort of track so the ability to run on two surfaces may prove to be good. I caught up to the trainer while he was running his mouth at the clocker‘s corner, and this is what he had to say about his filly, “Storm Spun has been steadily improving all season. She turned in a big second last time out in the Grade II Margarine Stakes to earn a shot at the big girls. She’ll need to take another step forward to hit the board on Saturday. I really don’t know what to expect. She’s not sharp. But she does have a big late kick so if she isn’t too far back turning for home, I think she might surprise a few people.” At 12/1 I can see that she tries hard each time, but will have some tough competition, some of the speed is fast, so she’ll need a good closing kick to catch up with them, or hopefully she won’t lie too closely to the pace and get fried by the hot pace. Her last start qualifies her being here, she just needs to step it up a bit more to get the win.

Drawing the outside post is fairhaven1’s Khartoum XI, 17^th ranked routing filly. The tall, sleek brown daughter of Sadler’s Wells is out of an undisclosed Mr. Prospector mare. She is this year’s only undefeated runner, being three for three. Debuting in June she has been running once every six weeks or so and seems to enjoy that schedule, improving her speed figures each time out. The trainer, better known as lenny was very excited to speak to me this morning over a cup of coffee at coffee van on the backstretch. “She’s undefeated (3-for-3) and lightly raced, but is much less accomplished than most in this tough field. She jumped into stakes (and routing) against the boys and took a nice step forward last time out. I’m not sure she has enough bottom to win, but I’m hopeful that she’ll take another step forward. The ultimate goal is to run at the GI level next May.” At 8/1 she has proven herself to like the track, and has beaten the boys, which for many fillies is a tough feat. I also like her closing style for this type of race. The only thing is if she wins, she may carry the curse, and disappoint her connections come May.

So rounds out this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Filly race. A well matched field has been assembled, although its one that makes me wish I would push my young ones harder so I could be in the race on my own, not just saddling for another trainer. I believe that there is a lot of early speed in the race that should set up for a closer, and maybe one of the fastest Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Filly races. My picks are the lightly raced Khartoum XI, Valdestale, and Funny And Brave. Best of luck to all of the horses and their connections. May your horses run well, and return safely to their stables. Hopefully see you at the Oaks in May!