Breeders Bowl Dirt Mile
It’s race number 1 on a card of 16 of the most prestigous races in sim history. Today’s Breeders Bowl card will kick off with the Dirt Mile. It’s not a traditional Breeders Bowl Race, but it is one with a lot of emotion. The Dirt Mile was created to give those Mile specialists their own race, and not have to flip them to turf, or force them into the 10f Classic event. It is run for the first time this season, making it even more interesting to see how the race is accepted. So to find that out, let’s take a look at the runners:
#1 A.P. PRECEDENT 7/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=74401
32 Races – 11 Wins – 747,468$
Graded Wins: 4
The 5yo A.P. Indy horse is sure one of the hotter milers this season, he won 3 graded races in very fine fashion. However in the first highlight of the season, the 8f dirt Equinics race, he was completley off, a 13th place with a 102 was way under his potential. However he has the talent to rebound strongly, and showed so by finishing 3rd in the Grade 2 Middle Gournd Mile, a 112 showed he is on his way back to the Top. He felt like on top, when winning the Lil’Leprechaun Mile and blistering a 117 speed. He likes to be sitting near the end of the pack till the half way mark, from then on working his way through the field for his final sprint to be launched. Surely has the firepower to prevail today.
#2 ZYGOTE 5/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=23769
37 Races – 14 Wins – 1,941,840$
Graded Wins: 5
The favourite is a 6 yo A.P. Indy horse, and he would have loved to have a Dirt Mile scheduled back in ’06 and ’07, as he was as hot as it gets come Breeders Bowl time. This season he already triumphed in the Smackdown event, and most recently in the Middle Gournd Stakes, beating Snarky Remark and A.P. Precedent, who will look for revenge today. His last race was an easy prep race, where he finished 3rd in a stakes event with a 109, but looked to have reserves. In the Equinics event he was just beaten by a nose byHoosier Miner. The Smackdown and Equinics 8f dirt races look like the most relevant preps for today, and summing up those results he surely is the favourite. He likes to be a couple of lengths off the lead early and advancing by the half-mile mark. Some races diverged from that strategy, like in the Smackdown event, where he went out of the stalls real bad. He can sum up his career in great fashion with a win today.
#3 HOOSIER MINER(KY) 12/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=14048
20 Races – 7 Wins – 734,183$
Graded Wins: 1
The 4yo Mineshaft colt hit the stakes scene early this year, and first found it tough to make his mark, but in May he scored a stakes event with a 116. But, after an average 106 in a 9f event, it was really surprising to see he was nominated for the 8f Equinics event, which turned into an event he’ll likely never forget. He parted the field, and in the end was a nose ahead of Zygote scoring in his first Grade 1 and collecting the winner’s cheque. He subsequently failed in the 9f Woodward Memorial, but look out for another big race from him today, as an up was followed by a down and vice versa, so it should be an up again in the Breeders Bowl. It is always important for him to be not too far off the leaders at the ¾ mark, as he only then can make his final run.
#4 IRON BOCK(KY) 7/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=12892
21 Races – 8 Wins – 622,082$
Graded Wins: 2
The 4yo Grand Slam colt came to life this season, when striking in two grade 2 races, and finished in the money in all but 2 races. His form only seems to be average, as his last two races both led over 9f, he ran a 114 and a 107 for a 1st and 3rd place in stakes events. He will run the 8f trip for the first time, only running at 8.5f once this season, and always going longer other days. It’s tough to judge his potential over a mile, but his best 9f race saw him produce a 117 speed. He likes to have an early lead, and usually fails to produce if he can’t. His two most recent wins both were wire-to-wire wins. We have to see how the early competition will be, and if he can get the lead.
#5 SNARKY REMARK(IRE) 24/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=139102
16 Races – 5 Wins – 819,640$
Graded Wins: 1
The 3yo Invincible Spirit colt had his last win in April, when winning the Wooden Indian, one of the traditional Derby preps. In the Bluegrass feature he had an off day, a speed of 90 ended him up in 15th, and a try at 12f in the GR Simsters’ Belmont Stakes was even worse. But his autumn campaign showed hope. He finished 2nd to Zygote in the Middle Gournd Mile, but an allowance prep over 8f failed, so it’s dubious he has the necessary form for this Breeders Bowl test, as his 113 looks like a one-day wonder at the moment. He usually runs from well behind, and that may not be the place to be in in this race.
#6 WATERGATE SCANDAL(KY) 7/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=81310
24 Races – 10 Wins – 731,936$
Graded Wins: 1
The Empire Maker 4yo colt has had a mixed season, he ran only 7 races this year so far, but one of those was the fastest to date this year, when he ran a 120 in the Grade 1 Nixon’s Promise. This however was followed by a 4th place in the Smackdown and a 7th in the Equinics. This two results make him a not-so-hot horse. He like many others tried an ALW prep, and came 2nd over 7f with a 107. Not what you look for, as you may have seen he has shown to be one of the top milers. However he hasn’t beaten the best when they all showed up, and his losses to Zygote may be in his mind when he sees him again at the starters orders for todays race. It will be tough for him to reverse form here.
#7 PANHANDLING(KY) 14/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=135026
15 Races – 4 Wins – 505,206$
Graded Wins: 2
The 3yo A.P. Indy colt is one of the longer outside shots, he finished 5th in the 3yo Equinics race, and that being said may show you, that he couldn’t even beat his own aged horses, so now a tune up with the best older horses seems even tougher, his 2 graded wins back in April qualified him for the Breeders Bowl race today, but his recent form has been all but encouraging. A 111 over 9f was only good for 4th place in the grade 2 Bluegrass Cup last time out, and it’s tough to imagine him beating some of the best dirt milers today. He likes to be in the lead early, and this for sure will be a tough one today. If he fails to take the lead early he usually can’t finish well, plus I’d make 9f his better distance.
#8 SPECIAL WAY(JPN) 16/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=120598
26 Races – 8 Wins – 556,992$
Graded Wins: 1
It’s tough to believe the 4yo Forty Niner colt was really entered in today’s event. He’s had a terrible autumn so far. A 4th in the Equinics and a 2nd in the Smackdown races showed his potential, but recently he finished 10th, 12th and 13th in stakes competition, gettin worse with every race. He likely could have used a break to get back at his winning ways, but a 91 two weeks ago earned him a entry in today’s race as a “reward”. Somehow he has to find his spring form to be near the top horses today, but I doubt he can do it and likely will fail to finish in the top 10 again.
#9 HALO ME DOWN 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=131577
25 Races – 9 Wins – 611,435$
Graded Wins: 2
The 5yo Mineshaft horse looked ambitous early on this season, he scored grade 3 Ecliptic Stakes with a nice 111 over 8f. He then followed on nicely with a 6th place in the Smackdown just outside the money. At the Equinics, he ran the 10f event and finished 2nd. Like most horses in today’s field, he recently struggled finishing 7th and 8th in 9f Grade 2 events. The step back at 8f may suit him, and he can likely build on better results. He will likely aim at the early lead, but it has to be seen if he can get it.
#10 WHO DO YOU LOVE(KY) 18/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=133641
21 Races – 7 Wins – 1,177,562$
Graded Wins: 1
It was early in the year when the 4yo Awesome Again colt was at his best. He won the grade 1 Diplomat Way Handicap over 8f with a 112, and followed his great outings in 8f dirt feature events in 2007. But he wasn’t made to remain atop the scene. Some off-track races seemed to take his energy, and when it counted in the Smackdown race, he wasn’t seen entering the final stretch in 2nd he faded and finished 8th. He looked better afterwards winning an 8f stakes race, but a stakes prep over 7f showed him flop in 13th place. He is another horse gunning for the early lead, and with so many doing so, will likely fail and finish outside the money.
#11 ROMAN PLUTONIUM(KY) 26/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=136177
18 Races – 8 Wins – 757,318$
Graded Wins : 3
Another 3yo gunning for Breeders Bowl glory, and he sure looked great this spring, winning the Corkscrew Stakes and the Fountain of Ute. However when the Bluegrass Derby arrived the Roman Ruler colt, he was not at his best. A 12th there and a 13th at the Middle Jewel made him look very average. However he showed his class in the Flatland Derby, winning with a great 115 speed on an off-track, blame it on the off-track or whatever it was his last win till today. A 3rd in the Eddie Haskell looked ok, but when facing older horses for the first time in the Bluegrass Cup Classic he failed to do anything, fading away into 13th. He is back looking good today, but how much of optimism has the last race taken out of him. Plus he is another horse looking for the early lead, and that makes it half the field trying to take the lead.
#12 AWESOME FORCE(KY) 11/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=117824
26 Races – 10 Wins – 6,520,100$
Graded Wins: 8
Looking at the career earnings and the odds of the horse make you feel strange, in top shape he should be the 4/1 favourite today, but it looks like the best days are behind the 4yo Awesome Again colt. It was this March, when he ran the 10f in 117 and won the biggest horse event on earth, the Sand Castle Classic. Plus he is the New Yorker and Middle Jewel stakes winner of 2007, finishing 5th in the Breeders Bowl Classic last year. Now all that, and you wonder, why is he running in the Dirt Mile, and why are his odds at 11/1. Well, the answer is in all those races since the big win in Dubai. His best finish was a 3rd place in a 9f stakes event. In all grade 1 races he finished outside the money, and that has been 3 attempts including the Equinics. So now he hopes to restart his career at 8f, a distance he hasn’t run since January, when he finished 5th to Who Do You Love, another struggling horse since then. Was the Diplomat Way Handicap jinxed?
#13 STAFF TROUBLE(KY) 8/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=131423
18 Races – 6 Wins – 1,621,637$
Graded Wins: 1
One win in May made this horse famous, he won the Cosmopolitan Handicap over 8f with a juicy 118, and that on a sloppy track, which usually makes most horses slower. Not him, but since then the fast dirt hasn’t been his. He finished 3rd in the Smackdown race, to average out at a 6th and 7th place in grade 2 races, so another potential favourite, that hasn’t shown his best form for a long time. What’s good for him is, that he likes to run from mid-pack, and then make his move at the half way mark. But be careful he ran in the Diplomat Way Handicap, finishing 2nd, so if this race was really jinxed, he could be one of those that come out bad at the Breeders Bowl.
#14 WIRELESS EAVESDROP(KY) 11/1
http://www.simulatedsports.net/hr/runtime/prettyhorse.asp?hossnum=149712
13 Races – 7 Wins – 1,123,580$
Graded Wins: 2
A horse I really like drew post #14, the 3yo Smarty jones colt is likely the best of the 3yos in this race, I had the pleasure to view 2 of his last 3 races live, and he really destroyed the competition in the Grade 1 Swamps Stakes, and looked classy when finishing 2nd in the Equinics Dirt Mile for 3yos. When facing older horses for the first time last time out, he ran a good 113 over 9f in the Bluegrass Classic Cup, he should improve on that, and from my point of view is an in-the-money finisher, if not Top 3. His running style coming from mid-pack will be fine for todays race, and I liked what i saw from him recently. Forget his spring troubles, when flopping in the Triple Crown races. I pick him to finish 2nd in a near upset.
To sum it up, I like Zygote too much, to not pick him, he sure is the favourite, and not a lot of favourites win the Breeders Bowl races, but he could be one doing it. Too many horses bring bad form lines recently, or had very bad results in their prep races. I really would prefer horses that place themself behind or mid-pack early, too many horses are likely to gun for the lead, thats why I take Zygote ahead of Wireless Eavesdrop.