Be “Brave”, Think Fundamentally

When you were learning to handicap, whether from Davidowitz, Beyer, or Grandpa, what were the tenets of basic evaluation? Well, Beyer would certainly try to convince you that speed wins races. Davidowitz, he’d give speed it’s due importance, but dwell also on form and distance; most horses win at a narrow range of ideal distances. Grandpa – I’m sure he made you well aware of the fact that ‘pace makes the race’.

Saturday’s featured $500,000 Grade I Bob Woodward features a contentious, impressive cast, a case to be made for nearly all of the participants. With that in mind, I will impart one of my own, personal betting, not handicapping, but betting tenets: When all else is in the vicinity of being equal, play the value.

In my mind, after jumbling Davidowitz, Gramps, Beyer, and some dope named Hannibal, there is revealed one clear standout upon which to center your wagering attention, Seeking the Brave.

A six-year-old son of Seeking The Gold, value is abundant thanks in part to a pair of wretched efforts in his last two starts. Some will, perhaps accurately, point out that the veteran is on the fast path to the half-century mark in career starts with Saturday marking number forty-seven, and that he has finally taken a permanent turn for the worse. He’s too damn old and tired, basically.

On the other hand, the ten-time winner has made just three career starts sprinting, hitting the board in exactly zero, so personally, I’m willing to toss the seven furlong debacle in his most recent. His previous disaster, a sixteen length drubbing in the ten furlong Movieland Shiny Cup, appears tougher to merely draw a line through.

But, Seeking the Brave is clearly most effective when setting, or at least contesting the pace. In the Movieland Shiny, he ran into monsters like Leno’s Chin, a ten-time winner of nearly a half-million with blazing early speed. Estrogen – a mare with blazing speed herself, a Grade I winner on both surfaces, against both genders, and earnings in excess of one and a third million dollars. Of course, aside from the speedsters, the class giants, millionaires Search and Conquer, Silver Canuck, and of course Call of the Wild II, winner of nearly six million, and a rival once more on Saturday.

In the Woodward, there is no Estrogen, no Leno’s Chin to shuffle him back early. He appears to be the speed of the speed, which Mr. Beyer would appreciate. He seems best at a mile and an eighth, with two seconds and a third in his last three graded stakes starts at the distance, which I’m sure would tickle the fancy of Steve Davidowitz. Grandpa would tell you that he should get an easy pace, which makes the race, and also that the jockeys are crooked bastards, but we’ll extrapolate from Gramps only information that comes from the right half of the brain. The goof named Hannibal? He’d say this old bugger is close to double-digits on the tote board – sign up now.

Divisional leader Call of the Wild II, by War Chant out of Mammoth Jess (by, Nureyev), is hands-down, without a doubt, the one to beat. Though he began his career on turf, the transition to the main track catapulted him towards the pinnacle of his class in short order. A solid third in the Grade I Princess Cup was backed up by a convincing victory in the Grade I It’s My Birthday Stakes, essentially closing out his sophomore campaign. He did run again in 2004, late in the year against older rivals in a conditioned allowance, and finished third at 3-5.

Five weeks later, he returned to graded ranks with a race under his belt, having just celebrated his fourth birthday, and began a fully fledged assault on the older route ranks. His four-year-old campaign began with a big win in the Grade II Toilet Scrubbers, followed by a strong second in the Grade I California Handicap, beaten just half a length. However, it was in Dubai that he became a household name. Three weeks after the defeat in California, running in the richest race, the Sand Castle Classic, Call of the Wild II stamped himself a divisional force with a convincing win.

Defying notions of ‘fluke’, he returned to the states, stopping in Maryland to snatch the Maryland Special, his third Grade I win. Back to California, he could muster only a third off a two-month break in the Movieland Shiny Cup, but returned six weeks later in the Grade I California Classic with a dominant three and three-quarter length triumph. His career record at nine furlongs is just one for four, but three of those starts predated his ascent to stardom, and the one victory looms perhaps his most visually impressive race, the win in the It’s My Birthday at age three with a speed rating of 117.

The apparent pace scenario doesn’t seem to flatter his chances necessarily, but unlike many of his other accomplished rivals on Saturday, he isn’t exactly a closer. With the ability to lay within relative striking range, any meltdown on the part of the likely pace players leaves Call of the Wild II an overwhelming favorite to reinforce his role as ‘best of class.’

Search and Conquer finds himself amidst several friends, including the aforementioned Seeking the Brave and Call of the Wild II. Among the most consistent in his class, the four-year-old has had the luxury of outrunning both Seeking the Brave and Call of the Wild in the Movieland Shiny Cup, but may find a reprisal of that role tough to accomplish. A late-running type, his style was benefited strongly when Estrogen and Leno’s Chin hooked up in the pace adventure that spelled defeat for Seeking the Brave. But, when he lined up next to Call of the Wild next time in the California Classic, the more sensible early fractions allowed his rival to get first run, forcing the rallying Search and Conquer to settle for runner-up.

The son of Machiavellian has had a prolific four-year-old season, starting nine times, winning five, running second in four. He also made his only career start at a mile and an eighth this year, capturing the Grade I New Hampshire handicap, and posting his best speed rating of a stellar year, 115. Like his rival Call of the Wild II, Search and Conquer appears to be in peak form. Making his graded stakes debut just four starts ago in a Grade I, has now made four straight starts in Grade I company, five including Saturday, and has yet to finish worse than second in that time. Things need to set up for him to find the winner’s circle, but it would be no surprise whatsoever to see him extend his ‘exacta finish’ streak in Grade I company to five straight.

The ‘pace mystery’ is Not Bluffing, a four-year-old son of Pine Bluff who is six for thirteen sprinting and two for nine routing, but has won a hundred grand more in routes. A five time stakes winner sprinting with a graded stakes placing and several close misses in sprints, he is an anomaly as a ‘jack of all trades, master of none.’ He has won at distances from five-eighths to Saturday’s nine furlong distance, and even managed to nearly capture the Grade I Farewell to Cryptozot at a mile and a quarter, leading clear inside the sixteenth pole.

Adding more peculiarity to his presence, he has made four career starts at a mile and an eighth, all graded races, with varying running styles and degrees of success. He was well-beaten after stalking the lead in his first try at the distance, the Grade I Cuyahoga Falls early in his three-year-old season. Six starts later, however, he ran one of his most creditable route races to that point, breaking from post thirteen, making all the pace and flattening late to be fourth in the Grade III Northern Derby.

After a return to sprints to end his sophomore campaign and begin the 2005 season, he made his route return and first try against older rivals around two turns in the nine furlong, Grade III Mohammed Ali Stakes. Falling far off the pace early, he came from dead last, circled the field on the turn and finished second, beaten a diminishing length. Remaining unpredictable, he then tried another sprint, followed by his lone graded stakes win, a determined head victory in the nine furlong, Grade II Iowa Cornhusker Breeder’s Bowl Classic. Employing a stalking tact, he slipped up the fence on the turn and took a narrow lead just inside the quarter-pole. For three-sixteenths of a mile, he repelled a tenacious Paleskin and managed to fend off a late surge by millionaire Boomtown Boy, who outlasted him to win the Mohammed Ali just nine weeks earlier.

So, can he win this race? Well, yeah. Granted, he likely hasn’t faced a group of this caliber, but he is the wildcard, and wildcards win a lot of races. Does he go toe-to-toe with Seeking the Brave and risk cooking himself and setting it up for one of the other big players? Does he sit back like he did in the Cornhusker and possibly allow Seeking the Brave to steal away and give a colt like Call of the Wild II possible first run? Win, lose, draw, snap a leg off – Not Bluffing will play a major role in Saturday’s race, even if he runs dead last.

While focusing on the pace possibilities, the natural segue leads to Danzig with Sal, a lightly raced four-year-old with the blood to explode as a force in his class. By Danzig, his dam, Newbie’s Dream (by Storm Cat) was a ten-time winner of over a million dollars, capturing three graded stakes, including the Grade I California Oaks at a mile and a sixteenth. Newbie’s Dream won four sprints, six routes, but was most effective between seven and a half and eight and a half, and dominant at a flat mile. That trait appears to have been passed to her first two foals, as Danzig with Sal’s younger half-sister, Beginner’s Luck (by, Carson City) has two stakes wins – at seven and a half and eight and a half furlongs.

Danzig with Sal himself began his career with three straight wins, a maiden win at a mile and a sixteenth, a first level allowance at a flat mile, then a non-three life allowance win at a mile and a sixteenth. In start number four, he found a cozy spot in a non-four lifetime allowance for straight three-year-olds, but had to overcome mom’s distance limitations by trying a mile and three-sixteenths. Like mother, like son, as Danzig with Sal backed up badly in the final eighth of a mile, beaten eight lengths.

Punctuating the issue of distance, he returned a handy winner when shortened back to a flat mile, winning back to back races, including the Duke Ali Handicap, posting speed ratings of 112 and 114, respectively. He moved to graded ranks, trying a mile and a sixteenth subsequently and finishing a solid second in the Grade III Razorback Handicap. Since then, he has started six times, all at a flat mile, winning the Grade I G.S.R. Mile, Broad Manila Stakes, and the Group III Lil’ Leprechaun Mile, with second place finishes in both the Group II Prims Memorial and Group II Copenhagen Cup.

So how will nine panels suit him on Saturday? Hmmmm… That’s a tough call; everything about him suggests it’s just out of his scope. But, what he does own that makes him a threat is excellent tactical speed. Again, he’s not blazing fast a la Estrogen or Leno’s Chin, but he’s always right there early, ready to pounce when appropriate. In light of the potential for a relaxed pace, in this case, nine furlongs may trip out perfectly for him.

A trivia question – which member of the field outran the legendary, immortal, mesmerizing, superhorse Silverwore just weeks before the now retired great went on to fame in the 2003 Triple Crown Series? Before you get me divulge, he did it just eight starts ago. Wait, what? Eight starts ago he outran Silverwore and this was prior to the 2003 Bluegrass Derby? Yep.

Five-year-old Unprecedented has run just three times since stamping himself an elite three-year-old two years ago following a devastating victory in the Grade I It’s My Birthday Stakes. Breaking from post fourteen and sent off at nearly 15-1 in the mile and an eighth test, the son of Hansel mowed down the field in the lane to win by three and a half going away – and then he went away.

Nine weeks ago, Unprecedented resurfaced after his two year absence in a twelve furlong stakes and not surprisingly, he was crushed, beaten almost twenty-five lengths. The very next week, dropping into an allowance and turning back to a flat mile, he unleashed a ferocious late kick, last by fifteen inside the half-mile pole and drew off to win by almost two. Well okay, but it was just a lousy allowance, right? Purchased privately after that allowance win, he immediately jumped back into the graded ranks, showing up in the entries four weeks later for the Grade I Delaware Handicap.

Flashing a bit more speed than usual, he contested the early lead, remained a threat to the sixteenth pole and gamely held third, beaten only a length. An excellent effort indeed, but of some concern was that he didn’t show any measurable improvement. Did he need to improve off of that big allowance win? No, no – that wasn’t a weak victory – it just would have made him impossible to get past in this spot had he stepped it up another notch or two. Of course, perhaps the change in running style left him a bit flat or the three races in six weeks after a two year hiatus. Either way, he certainly figures. And if he ever gets back to where he was two years ago and perhaps displays a little refinement with age, the competition is in trouble.

How in God’s good name is Parker going to come from twenty back to run over this field, Roys? That question was posed on more than one occasion this week in response to repeated claims that “they won’t beat the big horse on Saturday.” A recent Grade I winner, capturing the Gotta Fix The Sprinklers at a mile and three-sixteenths, there are two knocks on the nearly white son of Sadler’s Wells in this spot on Saturday.

First, he’s a one run, from out of the clouds, flying from nowhere, stone closer. As we’ve detailed here for the last thirty-seven thousand words, pace will play a major role in this race if we are to believe that pace plays any role in horse racing. I don’t think there is ample early speed to both kill the pace prompters and provide enough collapse to allow Parker to show the extent of his potential.

Secondly, nine furlongs may be a little too short for him. As a three-year-old, he won back to back races at the distance, winning the Irish Runner Handicap easily and then devastating a strong field in the Grade II Cribart.com, making up over a dozen on the turn and winning by three and a quarter. He earned a huge speed rating of 116, which he eclipsed only once since, posting a 121 while crushing a huge field of sixteen rivals in the Grade I London Fog Stakes in Vermont. Two starts later, he’s flying at the end of the Breeder’s Bowl Classic, coming from last to finish third, moving fastest of all in the final three-sixteenths.

So what’s the point here, eh? Is it that Parker’s a piece of crap without hope? Hell no. In fact, a case could easily be made that on the basis of talent, Parker may be at or at least near the top in this field. His best race probably is as good or better than the best race of most of his rivals. The caveat is running style, his foray into marathon races, the illusion that he’s running out of ground at ten furlongs, much less nine, and a seeming lack of required pace for him to handle a ‘short’ route. Do I think that he’ll win on Saturday? No. Does that alone improve his chances by ten lengths. Yes.