Big Hill Stakes Grade II
Big Hill Stakes
Grade II
7 F
Fast Dirt
All horses, 2 years old
Welcome to Washington and The Big Hill Stakes! There are 13 colts set to run the 7 furlong distance and several look to go on and be elite horses in the near future. There are co-favorites that will guarantee an interesting race, along with a long shot that looks primed for an upset. One thing is certain this is race that you will not want to miss! But first let’s meet the field of 2 year olds and trainers that hope to become the next elite group.
1) Fast Sequoia – 52/1 – cotchin9
Fast Sequoia has put together 2 wins in his 7 career races; however he has not so looked so good at the stakes and graded stakes level. In his last race he ran in The You Slew Me Cap in which he ran a speed of 66 which put him in 7th. His career high speed of 77 came at 6 furlongs in an allowance race which he won with a field of 4 horses. He will not have enough speed to be competitive in this one barring something short of a miracle.
2) Star Jet – 21/1 – alydar6812
Star Jet has notched 2 wins and 1 place in 4 races earning over $60,000. The light of pedigree (Star of the Crop X Tri Jet X Pia Star), has yet to be intimidated as he welcomed his stakes debut last time out with a 2nd place finish. It was in The Redhead Mike Bonanza as he ran a speed of 78 on the turf at 6.5 furlongs. This will not only be his graded debut, but the first time that alydar6812 has run him on dirt. Outside of the shot that dirt is exactly what this colt thrives on; his speeds of the high 70’s will not be good enough to get him in the money here.
3) Thornton Mellon – 5/1 – dolphinman
Thornton Mellon already has 8 career races in which he has compiled 4 wins, including 2 stakes wins. However, he has found the graded level quite elusive. He has yet to finish in the money at the graded level, but his fastest speed has occurred on the graded level, so it is only a matter of time. In his last race he posted his career high in speed which was an 89 at 8 furlongs which put him in 4th in the G2 Darling-Squash Futurity. So after moving up to the mile range in distance dolphinman has decided to cut back the distance to see how his speed will react back in the sprints.
4) Hishi’s Academy – 14/1 – thetiler
This colt sired by Hishi Akebono has enjoyed the switch to dirt after his first two races on turf. His speeds have been enough to get him 3 wins in 6 tries, one of those being a stakes win, but he has yet to top 85. In his last race he ran a mile for the first time in the G2 North Fork Stakes, making his graded debut in which he finished a disappointing 7th with a speed of 83. Thetiler tries to tone it down to 7 furlongs this time out to see how Hishi’s Academy will respond, however his speed will likely prove to be his greatest nemesis in this faster field.
5) Del Penn Dude – 5/1 – topicountc
This Forest Wildcat colt has earned 3 wins in his 6 career starts, including a G3 win. In his last race he ran in The Time Of Death Bonanza Stakes in which he finished 2nd with a speed of 85 at 6 furlongs. His only race over 6 furlongs was in the highly competitive Smackdown in which he ran a speed of 77 at 7 furlongs which put him in 8th. His pedigree certainly suggests he should be able to handle the added distance (Forest Wildcat X Kingmambo X Seattle Slew, however his best speeds have come at 5.5-6 furlongs. This race should give a better future indicator on how the colt will take to the distance in the future. I predict a faster speed here than last time at the distance and a good shot to get in the money.
6) Hidden Agendas – 7/1 – super29
The Ghostzapper colt, Hidden Agendas, has looked good under the mile mark. He has notched a 1st, 2nd, and 4th in graded races under a mile. The lone time he went to a mile was his last time out in the G2 Darling Squash Futurity in which he did not handle the jump well as he finished 14th with a speed of 79. He looks to improve on the quarter of a million career earnings in just 6 races by making his usual late push at the end to sneak into the mix. With jockey Q. Simien at the helm and his career winning percentage of 22% and ITM percentage of 54% this duo looks to be hot at just the right time, something trainer super29 is certainly hoping for.
7) Gone Bachelor –15/1 – breed4me
You will have to excuse the oddsmakers on this one and take a good look at this colt before proclaiming a winner. This colt has run in 7 races winning 4 of them, 2 of those being stakes races. Gone Bachelor began his career running on turf and did so for 4 races winning only 1 of those, breaking his maiden. However, in his three races on dirt he appears to have forgotten how to lose. In winning each of the last 3 he has looked nothing short of dominating leading each of those races from wire to wire. But wait, it gets better, last time out he ran the longest distance yet on dirt at 6 furlongs in The Time of Death Bonanza and achieved a career high speed of 87. So perhaps the oddsmakers consider it a long shot, but I give Gone Bachelor and breed4me a good shot.
8) Special Dibz – 10/1 – 504beastly
This colt is making his graded debut after just two races and his last he looked impressive breaking his maiden. The Pulpit colt won at 7 furlongs with a speed of 81 last time out. With just a short time off it is back to work for Special Dibz and his route friendly pedigree (Pulpit X Broad Brush X Gone West). He will more than likely find the jump from maiden races to grade level stakes race quite extraordinary and one he simply will not be able to overcome this early in his career. However, this horse does have the makings of something special in the future, it is just too much to expect too soon.
9) Reginald Dwight – 8/1 – donmar
This Jazil colt has looked better with each race he has run. In his 4 races he has earned over $80,000 and a stakes race win to go along with that. He earned that stakes win last time out in The Tolerant Peak Cap in which he ran a speed of 87 at 6 furlongs. In his short history he has never finished worse than 2nd, but his speeds at 6 furlongs look better than his speed at 7 furlongs. The one time he ran 7 furlongs he ran an 82, which was at the time a career high, but in the next race donmar was rewarded for a return to the 6 furlong distance with not only another career high speed, but his first stakes win. If he can overcome that extra furlong in this one and improve on that speed again he will have a great shot to get in the money. I predict that his speed will not match his career best and he will miss out on the money in his graded debut.
10) Jersey Mafia – 9/1 – stormboot
Jersey Mafia is a good looking colt sired by Posse who has yet to place worse than 2nd in his 4 career races. In his last race he ran in The Nijinsky Scooping Bonanza at 8 furlongs with a speed of 87 which was good enough to get him 2nd. He also ran in the G3 Closest Friend Stakes in which he finished 2nd with a speed of 83. This colt likes to get out early in his races and try to hold on down the stretch. His best speed has come at 8 furlongs and his pedigree suggests he is more of a router (Posse X Seeking The Gold X A.P. Indy). However, his fast speed should give him a reasonable shot at getting out early enough to hang on for the money.
11) Seebiscuit – 8/1—megaman42
Out of gate 11 we have Seebiscuit a colt sired by Pollard’s Vision who has earned over $50,000 in his 4 career races. In his last race he ran in The Meadow Depositing Memorial finishing 3rd with a speed of 84 at a distance of 6.5 furlongs. That speed tied his career high that was earlier posted in a G3 race which was 8 furlongs. He also already boasts a stakes win, which is actually his only career win. His speeds will likely be his biggest enemy in this one as he will find the graded field too fast once again.
12) American Haack – 6/1 – castillete
This well bred colt (A.P. Indy X Woodman X Northern Dancer) has only run in 3 races, but has won 2 of those and placed 2nd in the other. This will be American Haack’s stakes and graded debut running in a maiden and 2 allowance races previously. In his last race he ran a blazing speed of 89 at 7 furlongs in the allowance race that he led from beginning to finish. His speed has improved with each race and there certainly reason to believe it will be improved on once again as this horse continues to develop and turn into an elite horse. He is certainly a good bet to finish in the money and possibly to win his graded debut.
13) Morning Jewel –15/1 – marksund
In the last gate we have Morning Jewel a colt that is trying to find the right distance at which he will succeed. In his last race he ran in The His Rate Stakes finishing 2nd with a speed of 78 which was 5.5 furlongs. It was enough to tie his career high that had earlier been set at 6 furlongs, so now trainer marksund is hoping the extra distance will give him the boost he needs to get into the graded money, which he failed at earlier in the year finishing 11th at the G2 Vermont BB Juvenile. However, Morning Jewel will be on the outside looking in, as he may make a push early in the race, but it will not be enough as he will fade late.
Now I told you that was a good looking field and each time I was going through the list I found a new predicted winner, however the one that really stands out to me is the underrated Gone Bachelor. He has found his stride and is red hot on dirt and looks to improve with the added distance. My second pick goes to the American Haack, the well bred horse who has recently been putting up very good speeds. There is some caution that comes with that pick because he has yet to run beyond the allowance level and the jump could have adverse effects; however I still like his chances in this one. My 3rd and final pick goes to Del Penn Dude as he tries to add to that G3 win he already has earned. There are others in the field that could jump into the money and it would not be a shock, but those are the 3 horses I feel are primed to have a big showing here. It will certainly be a good race and one of historic proportions with so many good looking colts.
As always good luck to all the trainers involved in the race!